Pardubice3Zlin0

HT 2–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 15–10On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 17:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Pardubice, 14th, host a Zlín side with one point and no win from ten league games.

Pardubice look the more likely winners at home, but a 1.6 price for a team with one home league win in four offers nothing. Both teams to score at 1.88 is the one quoted price that holds up, with Zlín scoring in five of their last six and Pardubice conceding at home.

Context

Patrák's two goals at this ground in October 2025 make him the standout figure from the clubs' recent meeting, and he now plays for Pardubice. The reunion is a genuine talking point around a home attacker who has already scored against this opponent. One strong game a year ago does not establish his current role or form, and it says nothing about how Zlín will defend him; the value is context, not a projected effect.
- Vojtěch Patrák scored both Zlín goals in the 2-2 draw at Pardubice in the 13th round in October 2025, the second from a penalty.
- Pardubice's squad for this fixture lists attacker V. Patrák.
- V. Patrák started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- S. Ďatko started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when V. Patrák did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:50 · Europe/BucharestChance Liga match report: Pardubice 2-2 Zlínwww.chanceliga.cz · 25 Oct 2025
Zlín's scoring is concentrated away from home even as their winless league run continues.
Zlín average 1.5 league goals per away game against 0.33 at home, so they are a live threat to score at Pardubice even without a win. Their only point came in a 1-1 draw at Jablonec on 20 September. They have still won none of four away games, so a goal looks more likely than a result.
- Czech Liga 2026-27 after 10 games: Zlín have 0 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 20 conceded, bottom of 16.
- Zlín's league home record: 6 games, 0 wins, 0 draws, 6 defeats, 2 goals for and 10 against.
- Zlín's league away record: 4 games, 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 6 goals for and 10 against.
The clubs' 13th-round meeting in October 2025 ended 2-2, with all four goals packed into a 17-minute second-half window. It is the most concrete shared reference point before this fixture, showing the pairing can turn quickly rather than settle. Both squads and the wider table have moved on since, so the match pattern is background for reading the game, not a projection of how this one will unfold.
- Pardubice and Zlín drew 2-2 in the 13th round of the Chance Liga at Pardubice in October 2025.
- All four goals came in a 17-minute span of the second half.
- Pardubice scored through Matěj Koubek and Marián Pišoja, while Vojtěch Patrák equalised twice for Zlín, the second from a penalty.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:50 · Europe/BucharestChance Liga match report: Pardubice 2-2 Zlínwww.chanceliga.cz · 25 Oct 2025
Pišoja scored for Pardubice in the same October 2025 2-2 draw he now approaches from the Zlín side. The switch gives Zlín a player with first-hand knowledge of the opponent he scored against, which is useful background for a mid-table league game. It is a single past goal and a change of employer, so it does not establish a starting role or a current edge.
- Marián Pišoja was one of Pardubice's scorers in the 2-2 draw with Zlín in October 2025.
- Zlín's squad for this fixture lists midfielder M. Pišoja.
- M. Pišoja started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:50 · Europe/BucharestChance Liga match report: Pardubice 2-2 Zlínwww.chanceliga.cz · 25 Oct 2025

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

−11.9ppshort

Combined first-half scoring averages around one goal a game, making at least one goal before the break likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.80fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 55.6%

−3.6ppshort

Both defences concede regularly and the most recent meeting between the clubs produced four goals, pointing to a moderate chance of three or more.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Pardubice

1.60fair 2.04

BetBugs 49% · Market 62.5%

−13.5ppshort

Pardubice sit only 14th but host a bottom side with no league win and a very poor away points return, so home advantage gives them the clearer route to three points.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.60
The read
Pardubice sit only 14th but host a bottom side with no league win and a very poor away points return, so home advantage gives them the clearer route to three points.
- Zlín: 1 point from 10 league games, 0W 1D 9L, 8 goals for and 20 against
- Pardubice home league record: 4 played, 1W 1D 2L, 4 goals for and 6 against
- Zlín away league record: 4 played, 0W 1D 3L, 6 goals for and 10 against
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPardubiceEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams score relatively few first-half goals, so going into the interval level is the single most likely outcome.
- Pardubice first-half goals for and against: 0.75 and 0.50 per game
- Zlín first-half goals for: 0.33 per competitive game
- Zlín scored before half-time in only two of their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring for both teams is low and evenly spread, so an even second period is the most likely outcome.
- Pardubice second-half goals for and against: 0.67 and 0.83 per game
- Zlín second-half goals for and against: 0.83 and 1.0 per game
- Neither side has dominated second-half scoring margins recently
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pardubice sit only 14th but host a bottom side with no league win and a very poor away points return, so home advantage gives them the clearer route to three points. Two low-scoring, closely matched sides and a head-to-head record containing recent draws keep the share of the points plausible.
- Zlín: 1 point from 10 league games, 0W 1D 9L, 8 goals for and 20 against
- Pardubice home league record: 4 played, 1W 1D 2L, 4 goals for and 6 against
- Pardubice drew 2 of 12 competitive matches; Zlín drew 1 of 12
- Two of the last five head-to-head meetings finished level
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPardubice or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pardubice have the healthier first-half scoring and conceding profile, giving them the better chance of leading at the break. Both teams score relatively few first-half goals, so going into the interval level is the single most likely outcome.
- Pardubice first-half goals for: 0.75 per competitive game
- Zlín first-half goals against: 0.67 per competitive game
- Pardubice first-half goals for and against: 0.75 and 0.50 per game
- Zlín first-half goals for: 0.33 per competitive game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonPardubice or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both defences concede regularly and the most recent meeting between the clubs produced four goals, pointing to a moderate chance of three or more.
- Pardubice average 1.42 scored and 1.33 conceded per competitive game
- Zlín average 1.67 conceded per competitive game
- Zlín away league games average 4.0 total goals (6 for, 10 against in 4)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Zlín find a goal most weeks even in defeat and Pardubice have kept only three clean sheets in twelve.
- Pardubice both teams scored in 7 of 12 competitive matches
- Zlín both teams scored in 6 of 12 competitive matches
- Zlín have scored in six of their last six competitive games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pardubice have rarely scored more than once at home this season, so one goal or fewer is the more likely outcome.
- Pardubice home league average: 1.0 goal per game
- Pardubice scored 0 or 1 in three of their last six competitive matches
- Zlín conceded only 4 goals across 6 away-split matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostPardubice under 1.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zlín's goal output is generally limited to a single strike, making one goal or fewer the safer expectation.
- Zlín scored 0 or 1 in five of their last six competitive matches
- Pardubice conceded 1.5 goals per home league game
- Zlín overall league scoring: 8 goals in 10 games, 0.8 per match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonZlin under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pardubice have conceded in every home league game this season and Zlín usually find a goal.
- Pardubice have no clean sheet in 4 home league games
- Zlín have scored in six of their last six competitive matches
- Zlín away league record: 6 goals in 4 games
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostZlin to scoreEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Combined first-half scoring averages around one goal a game, making at least one goal before the break likely.
- Pardubice first-half goals for: 0.75 per game; against: 0.50
- Zlín first-half goals for: 0.33 per game; against: 0.67
- Pardubice had a first-half goal in four of their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zlín's matches generate a high corner count through their opponents' pressure, and Pardubice's games sit close to the line.
- Pardubice average 4.7 corners for and 4.5 against per game
- Zlín average 4.5 corners for and 6.0 against per game
- Zlín's last four matches with corners data produced 10, 12, 18 and 11
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zlín concede a high volume of shots and their own matches have regularly cleared this total.
- Pardubice shots total 13.0 for and 14.4 against per game
- Zlín shots total 11.1 for and 15.4 against per game
- Zlín's last four matches with data produced 23, 33, 28 and 32 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average close to or above seven shots on target, with Zlín facing heavy pressure.
- Pardubice shots on target: 4.4 for and 3.9 against per game
- Zlín shots on target: 2.3 for and 4.7 against per game
- Zlín's last four matches with data produced 4, 12, 9 and 9 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 6.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average well under five cards combined, so a quiet disciplinary game is more likely.
- Pardubice total cards per game: 2.4 for and 1.2 against
- Zlín total cards per game: 2.3 for and 1.0 against
- Zlín's last five matches with data produced 3, 2, 4, 3 and 2 cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance66%