Pardubice2Bohemians 19051

HT 1–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 13–11On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 16:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 (+9 point edge) and consider the draw at 3.80 (+8 points) in this relegation battle.

Avoid Pardubice or Draw at 1.25 and BTTS Yes at 1.67, as both are overpriced relative to our model.

Context

Pardubice sit 13th in the Czech Liga with 5 points from 8 matches.
Their home record is 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 2 goals scored and 5 conceded. This suggests they struggle to control matches at home, which could give Bohemians 1905 a chance to take points.
- Pardubice home record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in 3 matches.
- Pardubice have scored 2 goals and conceded 5 at home this season.
Pardubice attacker A. Tanko has returned from a muscle injury and started 2 of the last 5 available lineups.
Tanko completed 86 minutes and scored in the 13 September win at Baník Ostrava, showing he is available for a full match. His return gives Pardubice a recently used forward option, though his role against Bohemians may depend on how the cup tie affects rotation.
- Pardubice announced on 31 August that Tanko had returned to the pitch after a muscle injury suffered against Slavia.
- The club named Tanko in the starting XI on 5 September after injury.
- Pardubice's 13 September match report records Tanko's 55th-minute goal and his substitution in the 86th minute at Baník Ostrava.
- A. Tanko started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 16:53 · Europe/BucharestFK Pardubice: Baník Ostrava 1-2 Pardubicewww.fkpardubice.cz · 13 Sep 2026
Bohemians 1905 are 11th in the Czech Liga with 9 points from 7 matches.
Their away record is 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. This indicates they are vulnerable on the road, which could help Pardubice despite their own home struggles.
- Bohemians 1905 away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses in 4 matches.
- Bohemians 1905 have conceded 8 goals in away matches this season.
Bohemians head coach Jaroslav Veselý said his side controlled and built play well in the 2-0 win over Slovácko on 12 September.
Veselý wants better decisions in the final third after Bohemians failed to resolve several situations against Slovácko. That focus on turning possession into clearer chances could shape their attacking approach against Pardubice.
- Bohemians beat Slovácko 2-0 on 12 September.
- Veselý said the side had the match under control and were doing well in build-up.
- He said the work in the final thirty metres was not good enough and that the second goal should have arrived earlier.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 16:53 · Europe/BucharestBohemians: Černý premiérovým gólem korunoval výhrubohemians.cz · 12 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in relegation trouble and have poor home/away splits, making a stalemate likely.
- Pardubice home record this season: 0W 1D 2L (2 goals for, 5 against)
- Bohemians away record this season: 1W 1D 2L (5 goals for, 8 against)
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, 2 Pardubice wins, 1 Bohemians win
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and recent H2H resilience support Pardubice avoiding defeat.
- Pardubice have avoided defeat in 3 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions
- Bohemians have lost 2 of their last 4 away league matches
- H2H: Pardubice unbeaten in 3 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPardubice or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team tends to dominate early, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Pardubice leading at half-time in 33% of matches, trailing in 40%
- Bohemians leading at half-time in 27%, trailing in 47%
- Both teams have high draw rates at half-time in recent matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A low-scoring draw is a plausible scenario given both teams' struggles to win.
- Pardubice have drawn 2 of last 5 matches
- Bohemians have drawn 3 of last 7 league matches
- H2H has 2 draws in last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest scoring rates and the match is likely to be tight given relegation pressure.
- Pardubice average 1.4 goals for and 1.4 against in last 15 matches
- Bohemians average 1.5 goals for and 1.5 against in last 15 matches
- Combined average total goals in recent matches: 2.8, but both teams have low scoring home/away splits
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have been finding the net regularly despite overall low scoring, so both scoring is plausible.
- Pardubice scored in 4 of last 5 matches
- Bohemians scored in 4 of last 5 matches
- Both teams have conceded in most recent league games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First halves tend to be cautious in relegation battles, with both teams averaging under one goal each.
- Pardubice average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.7 against
- Bohemians average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.9 against
- Combined first-half average: 1.5 goals, but many matches have 0 or 1 first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Teams may open up in the second half as they chase a crucial result, leading to more goals.
- Pardubice second-half goals: total 1.4 - 0.8 = 0.6 per match
- Bohemians second-half goals: total 1.5 - 0.7 = 0.8 per match
- Combined second-half average: 1.4, but late pressure could increase scoring
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average under 5 corners each, suggesting a total under 10 is likely.
- Pardubice average 4.7 corners per match, Bohemians 4.1
- Combined average corners: 8.8
- Recent matches show moderate corner counts
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Relegation pressure often leads to more fouls and cards, and both teams average close to 2 yellows each.
- Pardubice average 2.1 yellow cards per match
- Bohemians average 1.8 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.9, with occasional red cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%