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Predictions graded

Bury1Harrogate Town1

HT 1–1Sat 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 9–12On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 15:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Bury, seven wins from eight competitive home matches, meet a Harrogate side two divisions higher, with a place in the FA Cup first round proper draw at stake.

Harrogate are the likeliest winners, but 2.0 asks for more than their case supports, so it is not a price to take. Bury at 3.3 to be ahead at half-time is the one price worth backing; a level first half is the most likely single state, but 2.4 there does not appeal.

Context

Bury have already won three FA Cup ties this season, against Wythenshawe Amateurs, Workington and Bromsgrove Sporting, after scoring heavily in the first two. The fourth qualifying round is the last step before the first round proper, so the winners go into Monday's draw alongside Football League clubs. That prize explains why the tie is treated as the club's biggest match of the season so far. The step up is steep, with Harrogate two divisions higher, so Bury's cup momentum faces its toughest examination yet.
- Bury have won three FA Cup ties this season, against Wythenshawe Amateurs, Workington and Bromsgrove Sporting.
- The winners of the Bury v Harrogate Town tie go into the FA Cup first round proper draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 15:41 · Europe/BucharestBury Times: Bury boss Anthony Johnson on the Harrogate Town FA Cup tiewww.burytimes.co.uk · 15 Oct 2026
The tie has been selected for live coverage on the BBC red button and iPlayer, with kick-off at 12.30pm. National exposure matters because Bury are a seventh-tier club whose FA Cup run has caught wider attention, while Harrogate arrive from two divisions higher as the expected winners. The early kick-off is a concrete change to matchday routine and travel for both clubs. The selection also marks the tie as one of the round's featured fixtures, though it does not by itself alter selection or tactics.
- The tie will be broadcast live on the BBC red button and iPlayer.
- Kick-off is 12.30pm.
- The match is the FA Cup fourth qualifying round tie on Saturday 17 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 15:41 · Europe/BucharestBury Times: Bury boss Anthony Johnson on the Harrogate Town FA Cup tiewww.burytimes.co.uk · 15 Oct 2026
Weaver is framing the trip to Gigg Lane around a partisan crowd and the need to keep the standards of Harrogate's recent winning run, which included victories over Eastleigh and AFC Hornchurch. The message matters because Harrogate are the higher-division side and the one expected to avoid an upset, so their manager is guarding against complacency. It is a preview comment rather than team news, so selection and rotation remain open. Weaver's reference to Bury working the ball well shows the opposition is being taken seriously.
- Harrogate Town manager Simon Weaver described the trip to Bury as a tough FA Cup test in front of a partisan crowd.
- Weaver said his side must concentrate on the standards they have been hitting.
- Weaver said Bury work the ball well under a good manager and expected a difficult challenge.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 15:41 · Europe/Bucharest
Bury have made Gigg Lane a reliable base this season: eight competitive home matches between 11 August and 3 October produced seven wins, no draws and one defeat, with 3.75 goals scored and 0.625 conceded per game, plus four clean sheets. The caveat is the level of opposition, largely Northern Premier League and FA Cup qualifying sides, while Harrogate arrive two divisions higher with four away wins in six.
- Bury's competitive home record is 7 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 8 matches, from 11 August to 3 October 2026.
- Bury average 3.75 goals scored and 0.625 conceded per home match, with 4 clean sheets in 8 home matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.23

BetBugs 81% · Market 82%

−1.0ppshort

Bury's prolific first-half home scoring makes at least one goal before the break highly likely.

Both Teams Score First HalflostUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.22fair 1.30

BetBugs 77% · Market 82%

−5.0ppshort

At least one side is likely to be kept out in the first half, given Bury's strong home first-half defence.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Bury's home games have produced goals at both ends, and Harrogate's away matches have generally featured scoring, pointing to three or more.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Harrogate Town

2.00fair 2.33

BetBugs 43% · Market 50%

−7.0ppshort

Harrogate's higher-division quality and consistent winning run give them the clearest route to victory, even away at a partisan ground.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.00
The read
Harrogate's higher-division quality and consistent winning run give them the clearest route to victory, even away at a partisan ground.
- Harrogate have won 9 of 13 competitive matches, scoring 2.23 per game
- Harrogate away record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, with 3 clean sheets
- Harrogate compete two divisions above Bury's Northern Premier League level
- Bury's home record has been built mostly against lower-division opposition
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHarrogate TownEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half numbers suggest a cagey opening is the single most likely half-time state.
- Harrogate average 0.67 first-half goals away
- Bury concede just 0.5 first-half goals at home
- Harrogate concede 1 first-half goal away
- Cup ties frequently start cautiously
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both defences have been solid after the break, making the second half level the most likely single state.
- Bury concede 0.125 second-half goals at home
- Harrogate concede 0.33 second-half goals away
- Harrogate average 0.83 second-half goals away
- Second halves in tight cup ties often cancel out
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bury have been dominant at Gigg Lane this season, scoring heavily at home, and carry real cup momentum into a one-off tie. Harrogate's higher-division quality and consistent winning run give them the clearest route to victory, even away at a partisan ground.
- Bury home record: 7 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in 8 competitive home matches, scoring 3.75 goals per game
- Harrogate away record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in 6, conceding 1.33 per game
- Harrogate have won 9 of 13 competitive matches, scoring 2.23 per game
- Harrogate away record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, with 3 clean sheets
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBury or Harrogate TownEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bury have started home matches strongly, scoring more than two first-half goals on average. Both teams' first-half numbers suggest a cagey opening is the single most likely half-time state.
- Bury average 2.25 first-half goals at home
- Bury concede 0.5 first-half goals at home
- Harrogate average 0.67 first-half goals away
- Bury concede just 0.5 first-half goals at home
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBury or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Bury's home games have produced goals at both ends, and Harrogate's away matches have generally featured scoring, pointing to three or more.
- Bury home matches average 3.75 goals scored and 0.625 conceded
- Harrogate away matches average 1.5 scored and 1.33 conceded
- Bury have scored 11 goals in their last four home matches
- Harrogate have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 away games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Clean sheets are common for both sides, particularly Harrogate away, which lowers the chance of both teams scoring.
- Bury home clean sheets: 4 in 8
- Harrogate away clean sheets: 3 in 6
- Bury have conceded in only 8 of 14 matches overall
- Harrogate have scored 6 goals in 6 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bury have regularly scored two or more at home, supported by their high home goals average.
- Bury average 3.75 goals per home match
- Bury have won 7 of 8 home matches
- Bury scored 8 against Wythenshawe and 4 against AFC Emley at home
- Harrogate have conceded 1.33 per away match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBury over 1.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bury's strong home defence and Harrogate's modest away scoring point to the visitors being kept to one goal or fewer.
- Harrogate average 1.5 goals per away match
- Bury have conceded only 0.625 per home match
- Bury kept 4 clean sheets in 8 home matches
- Harrogate have scored 6 goals in 6 away matches, often one or fewer
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonHarrogate Town under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Harrogate carry a steady scoring threat that makes it likely Bury will concede at least once.
- Harrogate have scored 6 goals in 6 away matches
- Harrogate have scored in a majority of recent National League matches
- Bury conceded in 8 of 14 competitive matches
- Bury concede 0.93 per game overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHarrogate Town to scoreEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bury's consistent home scoring makes it likely Harrogate will concede at least once.
- Bury average 3.75 goals per home match
- Bury have scored in 11 of 14 competitive matches
- Harrogate concede 1.33 goals per away match
- Bury won 7 of 8 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBury to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Bury's prolific first-half home scoring makes at least one goal before the break highly likely.
- Bury average 2.25 first-half goals at home
- Bury concede 0.5 first-half goals at home
- Harrogate average 0.67 first-half goals away
- Combined first-half goal expectation exceeds two per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
At least one side is likely to be kept out in the first half, given Bury's strong home first-half defence.
- Bury concede only 0.5 first-half goals at home
- Harrogate average 0.67 first-half goals away
- Bury have kept 4 home clean sheets overall
- Harrogate's first-half away scoring is limited
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences tighten after the break, favouring a quieter second half with one goal or fewer.
- Bury concede 0.125 second-half goals at home
- Harrogate concede 0.33 second-half goals away
- Harrogate average 0.83 second-half goals away
- Combined second-half concession rate is very low
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance57%

Recent Form

Bury

W3-2Alfreton TownOct 10NON

L0-1Stockton TownOct 6NON

W2-1Bromsgrove SportingOct 3FAC

W5-1WorkingtonSep 19FAC

W4-0AFC EmleySep 12NON

W8-0Wythenshawe AmateursSep 5FAC

L1-2Hyde UnitedAug 31NON

W7-0Ilkeston TownAug 29NON

L0-1Lancaster CityAug 25NON

W1-0Gainsborough TrinityAug 22NON

L2-3Guiseley AFCAug 18NON

W1-0RylandsAug 15NON

W3-2Curzon AshtonAug 11NON

D0-0Redcar AthleticAug 8NON

W3-1RadcliffeAug 1FRI

Harrogate Town

W1-0WokingOct 10NAT

W3-0AFC HornchurchOct 3NAT

W1-0HartlepoolSep 29NAT

W4-1EastleighSep 26NAT

L1-4Boreham WoodSep 19NAT

L1-2AFC FyldeSep 15NAT

W3-1TamworthSep 12NAT

W2-0ScunthorpeSep 5NAT

W2-1GatesheadAug 31NAT

L1-3Aldershot TownAug 28NAT

D2-2BarrowAug 22NAT

W3-1WealdstoneAug 15NAT

W5-2Solihull MoorsAug 8NAT

W2-1Scarborough AthleticAug 1FRI

D2-2DoncasterJul 25FRI

Squad & Injuries

Bury

6 available

Attackers2

Midfielders1

Defenders3

Goalkeeper0

Harrogate Town

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3