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Predictions graded

Hartlepool United0Harrogate Town1

HT 0–0Tue 29 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 07:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Hartlepool have not won since 5 September and host this under caretaker managers without their first-choice goalkeeper, while Harrogate arrive off a 4-1 win over Eastleigh.

A Harrogate win at 2.2 and a first half without both teams scoring at 1.22 both look worthwhile; the match not finishing level at 1.3 offers nothing, and over 2.5 goals at 1.7 and both teams to score at 1.62 ask for more than the season so far supports.

Context

The interim pairing took charge on 21 September after Lee Clark resigned with Hartlepool having lost seven of their previous eight matches, and they remained in position for this Tuesday fixture because no permanent head coach had been appointed. Selection and shape therefore sit with caretakers who have had only a handful of days in the job, while the club's own announcement said the search for a new head coach had already begun. Clayton's post-match message after the 4-1 defeat at Scunthorpe targetted a response on Tuesday. As a result the central question around Hartlepool is how the caretakers set the team up, with no permanent appointment in place to signal a settled direction.
- Hartlepool United confirmed on 21 September 2026 that Gary Liddle and Adam Clayton would take charge of first-team matters on an interim basis, with the process to find a new head coach already under way.
- Lee Clark resigned as Hartlepool manager on 19 September 2026 after 11 games in charge, departing on a run of seven defeats in eight matches.
- Hartlepool lost 4-1 at Scunthorpe United on 26 September 2026; interim manager Adam Clayton said the group had to be picked up to 'respond on Tuesday'.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 07:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Harrogate came into this fixture off their most complete performance of the season, a 4-1 home win over Eastleigh on 26 September that ended a two-game losing run and lifted them to fourth. Brad Dolaghan scored twice and captain Bailey Hobson and George Thomson added late goals as Town converted the dominance Simon Weaver had spent the free midweek trying to turn into sharper finishing. The result followed a home defeat to AFC Fylde and a loss at Boreham Wood. The trip to a struggling Hartlepool now tests whether that sharper edge travels.
- Harrogate Town beat Eastleigh 4-1 at home on 26 September 2026, ending a two-game losing run.
- The win moved Harrogate up to fourth in the National League.
- Manager Simon Weaver described it as 'probably our most complete performance'.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 07:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Merrick, the first-choice goalkeeper on loan from Chelsea, was ruled out for around six weeks on 10 September after a recurrence of a thigh injury, a window that still covers this fixture. Interim coach Gary Liddle addressed the position publicly on 25 September, and local reporting has linked Hartlepool with signing another goalkeeper. An extended absence removes a settled presence behind a defence that has already conceded heavily. The length of the absence means this is a known condition rather than a fresh setback, but the position remains unresolved while the permanent coaching situation is also open.
- Hartlepool United confirmed on 10 September 2026 that goalkeeper Max Merrick would be out for around six weeks with a thigh injury and return to Chelsea for treatment.
- Interim coach Gary Liddle addressed Hartlepool's goalkeeper situation on 25 September 2026, and the club has been reported to be considering signing another goalkeeper.
- Max Merrick started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- N. Fisher started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Max Merrick did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 07:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Dolaghan scored in the 6th and 39th minutes as Harrogate put Eastleigh away 4-1 at home, the clearest recent evidence that the forward is in scoring touch. For a Hartlepool defence that shipped four at Scunthorpe with an unsettled goalkeeping department, a striker arriving on that form is a direct problem to manage. Both goals came at home, however, and Harrogate had lost their two previous matches, so his away threat rests on a single convincing afternoon.
- Brad Dolaghan scored in the 6th and 39th minutes of Harrogate Town's 4-1 home win over Eastleigh on 26 September 2026.
- Dolaghan's opener came from a Lewis Cass cross and his second was a scrambled finish before half-time.
- B. Dolaghan started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- S. McCoulsky started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when B. Dolaghan did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 07:45 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Harrogate sit far higher, score freely and face a side that has lost most of its matches and is being run by caretakers without its first-choice goalkeeper.
- Harrogate are 4th/5th with 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats from 9 league games, scoring 20 and conceding 16.
- They have won 2 of 4 away league games, scoring 7 and conceding 8.
- Hartlepool have lost 8 of 11 tracked competitive matches and 7 of their last 8 under the previous manager.
- Confirmed team news: Hartlepool are under interim managers and without first-choice goalkeeper Max Merrick for around six weeks.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarrogate TownEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Harrogate score more before the interval than Hartlepool, who have managed very little in first halves.
- Harrogate average 0.8 first-half goals per game and 0.75 in their away split.
- Hartlepool average 0.82 first-half goals conceded per game and 0.83 in their home split.
- Hartlepool have scored only 3 first-half goals in 11 tracked matches.
- Harrogate led 1-0 at half-time at Scunthorpe in a 2-0 away win.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostHarrogate TownEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Harrogate score more after half-time than Hartlepool while Hartlepool concede heavily in second halves at home.
- Harrogate average 1.3 second-half goals per game overall and 1.0 away.
- Hartlepool concede 1.18 second-half goals per game and 1.67 in their home split.
- Harrogate scored 3 of their 4 goals against Eastleigh in the first half but have scored after the break in most wins.
- Hartlepool's home split shows 0.5 second-half goals scored.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonHarrogate TownEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Hartlepool have won two of four league games at home and Harrogate concede regularly on their travels, so a home win cannot be dismissed even with the side 19th. Harrogate sit far higher, score freely and face a side that has lost most of its matches and is being run by caretakers without its first-choice goalkeeper.
- Hartlepool are 19th with 3 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats from 9 league games (7 goals for, 11 against).
- At home in the league they are 2 wins and 2 defeats with 4 scored and 4 conceded.
- Harrogate are 4th/5th with 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats from 9 league games, scoring 20 and conceding 16.
- They have won 2 of 4 away league games, scoring 7 and conceding 8.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHartlepool United or Harrogate TownEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' first-half scoring is modest, so the interval is often reached level. Harrogate score more before the interval than Hartlepool, who have managed very little in first halves.
- Hartlepool average 0.27 first-half goals for and 0.82 against.
- Harrogate average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.9 against.
- Harrogate average 0.8 first-half goals per game and 0.75 in their away split.
- Hartlepool average 0.82 first-half goals conceded per game and 0.83 in their home split.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Harrogate TownEstimated chance83%

Goals3 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both defences concede often, and Harrogate's matches in particular have been producing three or more goals regularly.
- Harrogate's 9 league games have produced 36 goals (20 scored, 16 conceded).
- Harrogate's tracked matches average 3.9 goals per game.
- Hartlepool have conceded 2.0 goals per game across 11 tracked matches and 2.5 per game in their home split.
- Hartlepool's league games have produced 18 goals in 9 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Harrogate almost always score and rarely keep clean sheets, so the question is whether Hartlepool can contribute the one goal they usually manage.
- Harrogate have both scored and conceded in 9 of 10 tracked competitive matches.
- Harrogate scored in 9 of those 10 matches.
- Hartlepool scored in 6 of 11 tracked matches overall and in 4 of their last 6.
- Harrogate have kept 1 clean sheet in 10 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hartlepool's scoring has been limited to a single goal or nothing in almost every match this season.
- Hartlepool have scored 7 goals in 9 league games.
- Hartlepool scored exactly one goal or none in 10 of 11 tracked matches.
- Their home split average is 0.67 goals per game.
- Harrogate have conceded 1.8 per game across 10 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonHartlepool United under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Harrogate score consistently and meet a defence conceding two goals a game, so two goals or more is realistic.
- Harrogate average 2.1 goals per game across 10 tracked matches.
- In their away split they average 1.75 goals per game, with 7 goals in 4 league away games.
- Hartlepool have conceded 2.0 per game overall and 2.5 per game in their home split.
- Harrogate scored in 9 of 10 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostHarrogate Town over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Harrogate have found the net in almost every match this season, so Hartlepool keeping them out looks unlikely.
- Harrogate have scored in 9 of 10 tracked competitive matches.
- They average 2.1 goals per game across those matches.
- Hartlepool have conceded in 8 of 11 tracked matches.
- Hartlepool's home split shows 2.5 goals conceded per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHarrogate Town to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Harrogate concede in almost every match, so Hartlepool are likely to find at least one goal.
- Harrogate have conceded in 9 of 10 tracked matches.
- Harrogate's away split shows 2.0 goals conceded per game.
- Hartlepool scored in 6 of 11 tracked matches.
- Only 1 of Harrogate's 4 away matches ended with a clean sheet.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHartlepool United to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Harrogate's matches have produced regular first-half goals, and Hartlepool usually concede before the break.
- Hartlepool's home split averages 1.0 first-half goals per match (0.17 for, 0.83 against).
- Harrogate's away split averages 2.25 first-half goals per match (0.75 for, 1.5 against).
- Harrogate average 0.8 first-half goals per game overall.
- Hartlepool's last six matches included first-half goals in five of them.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Hartlepool's first-half scoring is so rare that both teams scoring before the break is a long shot.
- Hartlepool's home split shows 0.17 first-half goals per game.
- Hartlepool have scored just 3 first-half goals in 11 tracked matches.
- Harrogate have scored 0.8 first-half goals per game overall.
- Hartlepool have conceded 0.82 first-half goals per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half numbers point to goals after the break, mainly through Harrogate's scoring and Hartlepool's conceding.
- Hartlepool's home split averages 2.17 second-half goals per match (0.5 for, 1.67 against).
- Harrogate's away split averages 1.5 second-half goals per match (1.0 for, 0.5 against).
- Hartlepool average 1.18 second-half goals conceded per game overall.
- Harrogate average 1.3 second-half goals scored per game overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

W1-2HartlepoolvHarrogate TownJul 28, 2023FRI

D3-3HartlepoolvHarrogate TownJan 1, 2023LEA

L3-1HartlepoolvHarrogate TownNov 26, 2022FAC

L2-1Harrogate TownvHartlepoolOct 15, 2022LEA

L2-0HartlepoolvHarrogate TownAug 30, 2022EFL

3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

National League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
19	Hartlepool United	9	3	0	6	7-11	9	LLLWL
5	Harrogate Town Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	9	5	1	3	20-16	16	LLWWW

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Hartlepool United

L1-3WorthingSep 19NAT

L1-2AltrinchamSep 16NAT

L0-2Kidderminster HarriersSep 11NAT

L0-1Everton U21Sep 8NAT

W1-0WokingSep 5NAT

L0-1FC Halifax TownSep 1NAT

L0-1EastleighAug 28NAT

L1-2Sutton UtdAug 22NAT

W1-0Aldershot TownAug 15NAT

L0-10Middlesbrough U21Aug 11NAT

W2-0BarrowAug 8NAT

W1-0Fleetwood TownAug 1FRI

L0-3GrimsbyJul 25FRI

W3-2Hebburn TownJul 21FRI

W2-1Spennymoor TownJul 18FRI

Harrogate Town

L1-4Boreham WoodSep 19NAT

L1-2AFC FyldeSep 15NAT

W3-1TamworthSep 12NAT

W2-0ScunthorpeSep 5NAT

W2-1GatesheadAug 31NAT

L1-3Aldershot TownAug 28NAT

D2-2BarrowAug 22NAT

W3-1WealdstoneAug 15NAT

W5-2Solihull MoorsAug 8NAT

W2-1Scarborough AthleticAug 1FRI

D2-2DoncasterJul 25FRI

W2-1South ShieldsJul 21FRI

W1-0Cleethorpes TownJul 18FRI

W2-1Guiseley AFCJul 11FRI

L1-2BarnetMay 2LEA

Squad & Injuries

Hartlepool United

40 available

Attackers9

Midfielders12

Defenders13

Goalkeeper6

Harrogate Town

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Harrogate Town

Hartlepool United or Harrogate Town

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Yes

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Hartlepool United

Harrogate Town

Squad & Injuries

Hartlepool United

Harrogate Town