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Predictions graded

Harrogate Town4Eastleigh1

HT 2–1Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 23:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Harrogate's home scoring, 13 goals in five home league games, meets an Eastleigh side that has scored exactly one goal in each of its last six and won just one of four away.

Harrogate are the more likely winners, but 1.55 does not cover it. The two quoted prices that hold up are Eastleigh to draw or win at 2.3 and Eastleigh to win at 4.75.

Context

Eastleigh's announcement came on 24 September, the same day the club published its away guide for the Harrogate trip, so the deal lands in the final days of preparation rather than as part of a settled squad. Williams brings three Wales tournament appearances and top-flight experience, and he said the feeling around the club after dropping into the National League was 'really good'. Whether any of it translates into a debut at Harrogate is unstated: the club has not confirmed his registration or match fitness, so his effect on Eastleigh's XI is a live uncertainty rather than a guaranteed selection change.
- Eastleigh announced the permanent signing of midfielder Jonny Williams on 24 September 2026.
- The club's build-up posts described him as a player with Premier League experience and three Wales tournament appearances, and teased that he has previously played with two current Eastleigh players.
- The Non-League Paper reported Williams describing a 'really good' feeling at Eastleigh after dropping into the National League.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 23:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Harrogate have lost their last two league games, 2-1 at home to AFC Fylde and 4-1 at Boreham Wood, and the away defeat included a first-half collapse Weaver called a mental failure. His response has been to name his own instruction as the first thing that must improve and to treat the week as a chance to convert sustained 'good play' into goals, the same theme he raised after the 4-1 result. That is a coaching emphasis rather than a personnel signal, and nothing in the club's build-up points to a different shape or line-up against Eastleigh.
- Weaver, 24 September: 'It starts with my instruction being better.'
- Weaver, 24 September: it was 'a timely week to see how we can benefit more from the good play from tee to green and put teams to bed when we are on top.'
- Harrogate lost 2-1 at home to AFC Fylde on 15 September and 4-1 at Boreham Wood on 19 September, after which Weaver said his side had to be 'mentally stronger'.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 23:54 · Europe/Bucharest
That floor keeps Eastleigh in games, but it also caps them: one goal rarely produces a comfortable afternoon, so the draw and one-goal margins stay live against a Harrogate side that has conceded in nine of ten competitive matches.
- 28 August to 19 September 2026: 1-0 at Hartlepool, 1-1 v Aldershot, 1-2 at Altrincham, 1-1 v Boreham Wood, 1-2 at Sutton Utd, 1-0 v Carlisle. Six matches, six Eastleigh goals, eight points.
- 2026 National League season: Eastleigh's away record is 1W 0D 3L, with three goals scored and five conceded in four games.
- Their overall league record for the season is 4W 2D 3L, 11 goals for and 10 against in nine games.
The combination is what matters here: Harrogate's regular scoring is what makes them the likelier winners, while their equally regular conceding is what keeps Eastleigh's one-goal habit in the game.
- Ten competitive matches, 2 May to 19 September 2026: 21 goals for, an average of 2.1 per game, and 18 against, an average of 1.8.
- Harrogate scored in all ten matches and conceded in nine; both teams scored in nine of the ten.
- They kept one clean sheet across that span.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Harrogate score heavily at home while Eastleigh have one away league win, so the hosts carry the larger share of the match.
- Harrogate home league record 3W 1D 1L with 13 goals in 5
- Eastleigh away league record 1W 0D 3L with 3 goals in 4
- Harrogate score 2.1 per game across 10 competitive matches; Eastleigh concede 1.11
- Eastleigh have scored exactly one goal in each of their last six matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarrogate TownEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce little before the break, and Eastleigh in particular have been level at half-time in most games.
- Eastleigh were level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Harrogate were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6
- Combined first-half scoring averages are low for both sides
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Harrogate do most of their scoring after the break and Eastleigh rarely score in second halves away from home.
- Harrogate average 1.3 second-half goals overall and 1.5 at home
- Eastleigh average 0.5 second-half goals in away matches
- Harrogate won the second half in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonHarrogate TownEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Harrogate score heavily at home while Eastleigh have one away league win, so the hosts carry the larger share of the match. Eastleigh stay compact and take narrow wins, and Harrogate have conceded in nine of their ten competitive matches.
- Harrogate home league record 3W 1D 1L with 13 goals in 5
- Eastleigh away league record 1W 0D 3L with 3 goals in 4
- Eastleigh have won 4 of 9 league games and kept 2 clean sheets
- Eastleigh won their most recent match 1-0 at home to Carlisle
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHarrogate Town or EastleighEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Harrogate's first-half scoring at home is modest but clearly better than Eastleigh's away output before the break. Both teams produce little before the break, and Eastleigh in particular have been level at half-time in most games.
- Harrogate average 0.83 first-half goals for and 0.5 against
- Eastleigh average 0.25 first-half goals in away matches and 0.75 against
- Eastleigh were level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Harrogate were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHarrogate Town or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Harrogate's home games have been high-scoring and both teams found the net in all six of their home matches.
- Harrogate's 10 competitive matches average 3.9 goals
- Harrogate home matches average 2.33 scored and 1.67 conceded
- Five of Harrogate's last six matches had three goals or more
- Eastleigh's four away league games produced eight goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Harrogate have conceded in nine of ten and Eastleigh score in most games, so both finding the net is the more likely outcome.
- Both teams scored in 9 of Harrogate's 10 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in all 6 of Harrogate's home matches
- Eastleigh scored in 3 of their 4 away league games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Harrogate have scored 13 goals in five home league games and Eastleigh concede on the road in most matches.
- Harrogate average 2.33 goals in home matches
- Harrogate scored two or more in three of their last six
- Eastleigh concede 1.25 goals per away league game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonHarrogate Town over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
One goal has been Eastleigh's consistent away output and they have not scored twice in any recent match.
- Eastleigh have scored exactly one goal in each of their last six matches
- Eastleigh average 0.75 goals per away league game
- Eastleigh scored three goals across four away league games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonEastleigh under 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Harrogate have conceded in nine of ten competitive matches, including every home league game.
- Harrogate have 1 clean sheet in 10 competitive matches
- Harrogate have no clean sheet in five home league games
- Eastleigh scored in three of four away league games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEastleigh to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Harrogate have scored in every competitive match this season and average more than two at home.
- Harrogate have scored in all 10 competitive matches
- Harrogate average 2.33 goals per home match
- Harrogate scored 13 goals in five home league games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHarrogate Town to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Harrogate have conceded in nearly every match, so winning without conceding is the less likely route.
- Harrogate have 1 clean sheet in 10 competitive matches
- Harrogate have no home league clean sheet in five attempts
- Eastleigh scored in three of four away league games
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First halves have been quiet for both sides but a goal still arrived in seven of the last twelve matches combined.
- A first-half goal arrived in 4 of Harrogate's last 6 matches
- A first-half goal arrived in 3 of Eastleigh's last 6 matches
- Harrogate average 0.83 first-half goals for and 0.5 against
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
First-half scoring is sparse for both teams, so both scoring before the break is unlikely.
- Both teams scored before half-time in 3 of the last 12 matches involving these sides
- Eastleigh concede 0.33 first-half goals per game
- Harrogate concede 0.5 first-half goals per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves have often stayed at one goal or none, and Eastleigh close games out quietly away.
- Two of Eastleigh's last six matches had two or more second-half goals
- Three of Harrogate's last six had two or more second-half goals
- Eastleigh average 0.5 second-half goals in away matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

W3-0Harrogate TownvEastleighFeb 22, 2020NAT

W2-0Harrogate TownvEastleighFeb 8, 2020FA

L4-2EastleighvHarrogate TownNov 2, 2019NAT

L2-1EastleighvHarrogate TownDec 22, 2018NAT

W4-0Harrogate TownvEastleighSep 1, 2018NAT

Harrogate Town: 3 clean sheets3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

National League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Harrogate Town Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	9	5	1	3	20-16	16	LLWWW
12	Eastleigh	9	4	2	3	11-10	14	WLDLD

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Harrogate Town

L1-4Boreham WoodSep 19NAT

L1-2AFC FyldeSep 15NAT

W3-1TamworthSep 12NAT

W2-0ScunthorpeSep 5NAT

W2-1GatesheadAug 31NAT

L1-3Aldershot TownAug 28NAT

D2-2BarrowAug 22NAT

W3-1WealdstoneAug 15NAT

W5-2Solihull MoorsAug 8NAT

W2-1Scarborough AthleticAug 1FRI

D2-2DoncasterJul 25FRI

W2-1South ShieldsJul 21FRI

W1-0Cleethorpes TownJul 18FRI

W2-1Guiseley AFCJul 11FRI

L1-2BarnetMay 2LEA

Eastleigh

W1-0CarlisleSep 19NAT

L1-2Sutton UtdSep 15NAT

D1-1Boreham WoodSep 12NAT

L1-2AltrinchamSep 4NAT

D1-1Aldershot TownAug 31NAT

W1-0HartlepoolAug 28NAT

W3-2ScunthorpeAug 22NAT

L0-1Kidderminster HarriersAug 15NAT

W2-1GatesheadAug 8NAT

L0-1Farnham TownAug 1FRI

L0-1Crawley TownJul 25FRI

L0-3ValenciennesJul 22FRI

L1-3SouthamptonJul 18FRI

L0-2Poole TownJul 14FRI

L2-3HorshamJul 10FRI

Squad & Injuries

Harrogate Town

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Eastleigh

23 available

Attackers8

Midfielders5

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Eastleigh

Eastleigh

No

Yes

Over 2.5

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals8 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Harrogate Town

Eastleigh

Squad & Injuries

Harrogate Town

Eastleigh