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MTK BudapestVasas SC

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 18:0016 Oct, 18:00

14Probabilities4Priced6Edges83%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 23:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Second-placed Vasas visit ninth-placed MTK, where the hosts' home scoring meets the better away record in the division.

Vasas are the likelier winners, though not by much. Four quoted prices hold up: Vasas to win at 2.50, Vasas to avoid defeat at 1.55, a level first half at 2.40 and a goalless first half at 3.75.

Context

No injuries are reported for either side. The sporting picture is a nine-round form split (Vasas second on 15 points, MTK ninth on nine), MTK's 3-0 defeat at Paks on 10 October and the return of both attacking references from the international window.

Tóth Milán's autumn internationals are the clearest recent change around Vasas: a first senior call-up on 21 September 2026, a debut on 25 September and a first Hungary goal away to Ukraine on 5 October. His match relevance rests on MLSZ's 9 October note that he recorded 40 touches inside the box and 18 shot attempts across the first eight NB I rounds, marking him as heavily involved around the opposition area. The limitation is that he had scored only twice in the league by then, so the international goal is better read as a confidence and sharpness marker than as proof of a new level; the effect also depends on him returning from the window without a knock.
- Vasas announced on 21 September 2026 that Tóth Milán had received his first call-up to Hungary's senior squad under Marco Rossi; he debuted on 25 September and scored his first senior international goal away to Ukraine on 5 October 2026.
- MLSZ reported on 9 October 2026 that he had recorded 40 touches inside the box and 18 shot attempts across the first eight NB I rounds.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 23:37 · Europe/Bucharest
Jurek's first senior call-up on 15 September 2026 is the standout individual development on the MTK side, and MLSZ's 10 October round-up still ranked him the first eight rounds' most active and most effective striker, with no player taking more shots or scoring more. That matters here because MTK's attack has leaned on that output and the team arrives after a 3-0 defeat at Paks. The limitation is that his returns were compiled before the international break, so the question for this fixture is whether that shooting and scoring volume carries over rather than whether it guarantees a goal.
- MLSZ announced on 15 September 2026 that Jurek Gábor, then the NB I's leading scorer, had been called up to Hungary's senior squad.
- An MLSZ round-up on 10 October 2026 said Jurek was the most active and most effective striker over the first eight rounds, with no player taking more shots or scoring more.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 23:37 · Europe/Bucharest
MTK's five home league games in 2026 read two wins, no draws and three defeats, with nine goals scored and eight conceded. That is 17 goals in five matches, an average of 3.4, so their home fixtures have tended to be settled rather than shared. Five matches is a small sample, so it is a pattern to note rather than a fixed expectation.
- MTK 2026 home league record: 5 matches, 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 defeats, 9 goals for, 8 against.
- MTK home league games average 3.4 total goals and 1.8 goals scored per game.
At Paks on 10 October 2026, MTK lost 3-0, mustered two shots on target to Paks's seven and had a player sent off, with two of the three goals conceded after half-time. It is one match rather than a trend, but it is the most recent competitive evidence on the home side and it followed MTK's 1-2 home loss to Győri ETO on 20 September.
- NB I, 10 October 2026: Paks 3-0 MTK (half-time 1-0).
- MTK: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1 red card; Paks: 20 shots, 7 on target.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Vasas have the stronger league and away record, and Toth's heavy involvement gives them a steady attacking route.
- Vasas 2nd on 15 points, MTK 9th on 9 points
- Vasas away: 2W-1D-1L, 7 scored and 6 conceded
- Vasas won 3 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Vasas' Toth Milan has 18 shot attempts in eight league rounds
BetBugs · Match WinnerVasas SCMarket price2.50Estimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Both teams average fewer than one first-half goal, so the opening period often stays level.
- MTK first-half goals for 0.7, against 0.8
- Vasas first-half goals for 0.6, against 0.4
- Neither side averages a first-half goal per game
- Several recent first halves for both sides finished 0-0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.40Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides score and concede after the break, so the second half often ends level.
- MTK second-half goals for 1.0, against 0.9
- Vasas second-half goals for 1.5, against 0.8
- Both sides score and concede after the break
- Second halves are the higher-scoring period for both teams
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
MTK have home advantage and a prolific scorer, but Vasas sit higher and have taken seven points from four away games. Vasas have the stronger league and away record, and Toth's heavy involvement gives them a steady attacking route.
- Vasas are 2nd on 15 points; MTK are 9th on 9
- MTK home league record 2W-0D-3L with 9 scored and 8 conceded
- Vasas 2nd on 15 points, MTK 9th on 9 points
- Vasas away: 2W-1D-1L, 7 scored and 6 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChanceMTK Budapest or Vasas SCEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average fewer than one first-half goal, so the opening period often stays level. Vasas have the stronger first-half defensive numbers and can lead at the break.
- MTK first-half goals for 0.7, against 0.8
- Vasas first-half goals for 0.6, against 0.4
- MTK first-half goals against 0.8
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or Vasas SCEstimated chance76%

Goals6 outcomes · top 83%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams concede regularly and their home and away games have produced around three goals each.
- MTK home league games average 3.4 total goals
- Vasas away league games average 3.25 total goals
- Both teams scored in 7 of 10 competitive games each
- MTK average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.45Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both attacks score in most games and neither defence keeps clean sheets often.
- MTK scored in 9 of 10 competitive games
- Vasas scored in 8 of 10 competitive games
- Both teams scored in 7 of 10 games for each side
- MTK kept 2 clean sheets in 10; Vasas 2 in 10
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.43Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches usually include at least one goal before half-time.
- MTK first-half totals average 1.5 goals per game
- Vasas first-half totals average 1.0 goals per game
- Over 0.5 first-half goals landed in 4 of MTK's last 6
- Over 0.5 landed in 3 of Vasas' last 6
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have been busy after half-time.
- MTK's last six games produced 11 second-half goals
- Vasas' last six games produced 15 second-half goals
- MTK second-half goals against 0.9; Vasas 0.8
- Vasas average 1.5 second-half goals scored
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasas score in most matches and MTK's home defence has conceded regularly.
- Vasas scored in 8 of 10 competitive games
- Vasas scored in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches
- MTK kept only 2 clean sheets in 10 competitive games
- MTK conceded 8 in 5 home league games
BetBugs · Team to ScoreVasas SC to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
MTK score in almost every match and Vasas rarely keep opponents out.
- MTK scored in 9 of 10 competitive games
- MTK scored in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Vasas kept only 2 clean sheets in 10 competitive games
- Vasas conceded 6 in 4 away league games
BetBugs · Team to ScoreMTK Budapest to scoreEstimated chance83%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 57%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner rates sit close to the line, with MTK's home games producing most of them.
- MTK corners 4.7 for, 5.4 against per game
- Vasas corners 4.8 for, 4.2 against per game
- MTK home total corners average 9.0
- Recent total corners: MTK 11.5, Vasas 8.75 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams put a reasonable number of shots on target, and MTK's home games push the total up.
- MTK shots on target 6.4 for, 6.1 against per game
- Vasas shots on target 5.5 for, 4.5 against per game
- MTK home total shots on target average 13.5
- Recent total shots on target: MTK 13, Vasas 11.25 per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 11.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up cards regularly and recent games have produced around five.
- MTK 2.0 yellow cards per game, opponents 2.3
- Vasas 2.0 yellow cards per game, opponents 2.8
- Recent total cards: MTK 5.0, Vasas 5.75 per game
- Both sides have had red cards in recent matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 4.5Estimated chance57%