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Predictions graded

Berwick1Queen of the South0

HT 0–0Tue 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 23:17 · Europe/Bucharest

On the last league-phase matchday, Queen of the South are already through to the Round of 32 and travel again three days after a 247-mile trip, while Berwick sit 24th with one game left.

The visitors are the more likely winners, but 1.35 for a Queen of the South win offers nothing, and neither does Over 2.5 at 1.33. Three prices do: Berwick to win or draw at 2.9, Berwick to win at 6, and Under 2.5 goals at 3.

Context

The KDM Evolution Trophy league phase ends on 13 October, and Queen of the South's 26 September win over Rangers B already secured their Round of 32 place, while Berwick dropped to 24th with one fixture left. That asymmetry can shape both teams' approach: Queen of the South have little qualification incentive beyond seeding and may manage minutes, whereas Berwick are playing to keep their knockout hopes alive. Neither club has published team news or stated an intention to rotate, so the practical selection effect remains uncertain.
- Queen of the South's 4-2 win over Rangers B on 26 September 2026 confirmed their place in the KDM Evolution Trophy Round of 32, a round scheduled for 3-4 November 2026.
- Berwick Rangers said defeat at Airdrieonians on 26 September 2026 dropped them to 24th in the KDM Evolution Trophy standings with one game left in the league phase.
- Queen of the South's 12 October 2026 fixture post confirms the 13 October league-phase match at Shielfield Park, with tickets available on entry.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 23:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Berwick appointed Scott on 28 September after an extensive search, so the 13 October tie is one of his first home matches and his first against a League One club. A 4-0 Scottish Cup exit at Cowdenbeath on 3 October was followed by a 3-1 South Region Challenge Cup win over Edinburgh University, his first goals in charge. His short tenure leaves Berwick's shape and selection uncertain, and those two results came against very different levels of opposition, so neither reliably predicts how he will set up here.
- Berwick Rangers announced Martin Scott's appointment as manager on 28 September 2026 after what the club described as an extensive and thorough search.
- Berwick beat Edinburgh University 3-1 at MKM Shielfield Park in the South Region Challenge Cup on 10 October 2026, with goals from Kyle Somers, Danny Handling and Josh O'Connor.
- Berwick Advertiser, Northumberland Gazette and News Post Leader reported Scott making a 'hard work' claim after that Edinburgh University win.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 23:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Young scored the 85th-minute penalty that won at Peterhead on 10 October, three days after a two-goal display in the 4-3 win over Cove Rangers. For a Queen of the South side that has carried the attacking initiative in the league phase, a scorer in that form is directly relevant to how the tie may be settled. His latest goal came from the spot, so it is not by itself evidence of open-play sharpness.
- Queen of the South won 1-0 at Peterhead in League One on 10 October 2026, Connor Young converting a penalty in the 85th minute.
- Young scored twice in Queen of the South's 4-3 home win over Cove Rangers on 3 October 2026; the club interviewed him after that match.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 23:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Berwick confirmed on 11 October that Barr has returned, with the announcement built around familiar faces and quotes from the player and the manager. The timing puts a known midfielder back at Shielfield Park shortly before the Queen of the South tie, when the squad is still adjusting to a new manager. The club did not state the terms or duration, so it is not clear how soon he will be available for selection.
- Berwick Rangers announced on 11 October 2026 that Lewis Barr 'is BACK' and is returning to MKM Shielfield Park, quoting both Barr and manager Martin Scott.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 23:15 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The higher-division visitors carry more win quality and arrive on a three-match winning run against hosts who have lost nine of fifteen.
- Queen of the South sit a division above Berwick and have won their last three matches
- Overall 6W-3D-6L in 15, scoring 1.47 and conceding 2.07 per game
- Berwick have lost 9 of 15 and concede 2.40 per game overall
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostQueen of the SouthEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team dominates the opening period, and both have gone into half-time level in several recent games.
- Berwick home first half: 1.00 scored, 0.88 conceded per game
- Queen of the South away first half: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded per game
- Berwick's 0-0 and 1-1 home halves show level openings happen
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring for both sides is modest, so the closing period often ends level.
- Berwick home second half: 0.38 scored, 0.88 conceded per game
- Queen of the South away second half: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded per game
- Berwick's 0-0 home draw was goalless in both halves
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The higher-division visitors carry more win quality and arrive on a three-match winning run against hosts who have lost nine of fifteen. Berwick score reasonably at home and face a visitor whose away defence has conceded heavily and has little left to play for in the group.
- Queen of the South sit a division above Berwick and have won their last three matches
- Overall 6W-3D-6L in 15, scoring 1.47 and conceding 2.07 per game
- Berwick home: 3W-1D-4L in 8, scoring 1.38 and conceding 1.75 per game
- Queen of the South away: 1W-1D-4L in 6, conceding 3.33 per game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBerwick or Queen of the SouthEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team dominates the opening period, and both have gone into half-time level in several recent games. The higher-division visitors have the better first-half scoring record and Berwick concede regularly before the break.
- Berwick home first half: 1.00 scored, 0.88 conceded per game
- Queen of the South away first half: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded per game
- Queen of the South score 0.60 per game in first halves overall
- Berwick concede 1.13 in first halves overall
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Queen of the SouthEstimated chance72%

Goals4 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' games are high-scoring, especially Queen of the South on the road, so three goals is a reasonable threshold to clear.
- Berwick home matches average 3.13 total goals (1.38 for, 1.75 against)
- Queen of the South away matches average 4.17 total goals (0.83 for, 3.33 against)
- Berwick overall concede 2.40 per game and have 2 clean sheets in 15
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Berwick find the net at home and the visitors have scored in most away games, while neither defence looks reliable enough to shut the other out.
- Berwick home both-teams-scored in 4 of 8; Queen of the South away in 4 of 6
- Berwick score 1.38 at home; Queen of the South score 0.83 away
- Berwick have kept only 2 clean sheets in 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Berwick's home scoring sits just under the line and they have produced several low-scoring home matches.
- Berwick score 1.38 per home game, below the 1.5 line
- Berwick drew 0-0 at home and lost 1-2 at home twice in tracked games
- Berwick scored only 5 goals across their 8 home matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBerwick under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors have not scored freely on the road, managing under one goal per away game.
- Queen of the South score 0.83 per away game
- Only 5 goals scored in 6 away matches
- Queen of the South won 1-0 at Peterhead in their most recent away game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonQueen of the South under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Berwick concede at home in most matches and rarely shut opponents out.
- Berwick have kept only 2 clean sheets in 15 matches
- Queen of the South have scored in 5 of 6 away games tracked
- Berwick concede 1.75 per home game
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostQueen of the South to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors rarely keep clean sheets on the road and Berwick score regularly at home.
- Queen of the South have 1 clean sheet in 6 away games
- Berwick score 1.38 per home game
- Queen of the South concede 3.33 per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBerwick to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
First-half totals for both sides sit near two goals per game, making at least one before the break likely.
- Berwick home first-half total averages 1.88 goals
- Queen of the South away first-half total averages 2.00 goals
- Berwick concede 1.13 first-half goals overall
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors rarely score before half-time away from home, so both teams finding the net early is unlikely.
- Queen of the South score 0.33 first-half goals per away game
- Berwick score 1.00 first-half goal per home game
- Berwick kept a 0-0 first half at home against Musselburgh
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals for both sides sit near two goals per game, with the visitors' away games especially open after the break.
- Berwick home second-half total averages 1.25 goals
- Queen of the South away second-half total averages 2.17 goals
- Queen of the South conceded 6 second-half goals at Ross County
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Recent Form

Berwick

L0-4CowdenbeathOct 3FAC

L1-7Airdrie UnitedSep 26CHA

W3-2StranraerSep 22CHA

D0-0Musselburgh AthleticSep 19FOO

L1-2Civil Service StrollersSep 15FOO

L1-2Tranent JuniorsSep 12FOO

W1-0Hibernian U21Sep 8CHA

L0-2Broxburn AthleticAug 29FOO

D2-2Annan AthleticAug 25CHA

L0-2Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticAug 22FOO

W3-2Stirling UniversityAug 15FOO

L3-4Hearts U21Aug 11CHA

L3-4BrechinAug 8FOO

L0-2Hill Of Beath HawthornAug 1FOO

D1-1Lochee UnitedJul 25FOO

Queen of the South

W1-0PeterheadOct 10LEA

W4-3Cove RangersOct 3LEA

W4-2Rangers U21Sep 26CHA

D1-1Annan AthleticSep 22CHA

L1-4Hamilton AcademicalSep 19LEA

L0-8Ross CountySep 15LEA

D1-1East FifeSep 12LEA

D1-1Edinburgh CitySep 8CHA

W2-1Airdrie UnitedSep 5LEA

L1-2MontroseAug 29LEA

W1-0Hibernian U21Aug 25CHA

L0-2Alloa AthleticAug 22LEA

W4-0Cumbernauld ColtsAug 11CHA

L0-1PeterheadAug 8LEA

L1-5East KilbrideAug 1LEA

Squad & Injuries

Berwick

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Queen of the South

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Berwick or Draw

Berwick

Under 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 9 landed

Recent Form

Berwick

Queen of the South

Squad & Injuries

Berwick

Queen of the South