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Predictions graded

Airdrieonians7Berwick1

HT 3–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 11:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Airdrieonians are a division above Berwick and should win, but their own home form is three wins from eight and Berwick score in most matches, so 1.13 on the home side asks for more than their form justifies.

Three quotes do hold up: Under 2.5 goals at 3.75, the first half to end level at 3.5, and both teams to score at 1.91.

Context

Berwick have not shut out an opponent on their travels in the tracked window.
Only one of those six away matches ended in a Berwick win and none ended without them conceding, which is the clearest reason to expect Airdrieonians to score. Six games across five months is a thin sample, so this reads as a pattern rather than a reliable rate, and it says nothing about how many Berwick might score themselves.
- Berwick away split, 6 matches (11 April-15 September 2026): 1W-2D-3L, 0 clean sheets.
- Both teams scored in five of those six away matches.
The side from the higher division has not turned home advantage into a run of wins.
A team playing a division above its opponent might be expected to dominate at home, yet this sample splits evenly and produces only a goal a game. Their three most recent home fixtures were a 0-0 with East Fife and 1-0 wins over St Mirren U21 and Alloa Athletic, so another narrow, low-scoring home afternoon is a reasonable reading.
- Airdrieonians home split, 8 matches (18 July-12 September 2026): 3W-2D-3L, 1.00 goal scored per home game.
- Recent home fixtures: 0-0 v East Fife (29 August 2026), 1-0 v St Mirren U21 (8 September 2026), 1-0 v Alloa Athletic (12 September 2026).
Their most recent outing in this competition was the heaviest scoring night of their tracked run.
Six goals sits far above their 1.33 goals-per-game average across 15 matches, so it is better read as one strong evening than a new norm. It does show what their attack can produce in this competition, which is the part of their game Berwick's record without an away clean sheet does not answer.
- Airdrieonians 6-1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic, Challenge Cup, away, 22 September 2026 (4-1 at half-time).
The head-to-head record rests on a single fixture from 2018.
Eight years have passed since that afternoon, so it carries almost no weight for the sides lining up on Saturday. It does at least establish that Berwick have no recent result over Airdrieonians to fall back on.
- Berwick Rangers 0-3 Airdrie United, League Cup, 21 July 2018 - the only head-to-head in the record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Airdrieonians play a division higher and have won four of their last six, while Berwick have lost three of six and only one away match.
- Airdrieonians overall: 6W-3D-6L, 1.33 goals scored and conceded per game.
- Airdrieonians home: 3W-2D-3L, 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per home game.
- Berwick overall: 5W-3D-7L; away: 1W-2D-3L.
- Last meeting 2018: Airdrieonians won 3-0 away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAirdrieoniansEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.50
The read
First-half draws are common and Airdrieonians' home first halves have been low-scoring, making the draw the single most likely half-time result.
- Airdrieonians first-half goals for: 0.67; against: 0.33.
- Berwick first-half goals for: 1.07; against: 1.00.
- Airdrieonians home first-half goals for and against: 0.38 each.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Airdrieonians remain the better side, but second halves have been less controlled for them, so their winning chance is only narrow.
- Airdrieonians second-half goals for: 0.67; against: 1.00.
- Berwick second-half goals for: 0.87; against: 0.93.
- Airdrieonians home second-half goals for: 0.63; against: 0.88.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonAirdrieoniansEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Airdrieonians play a division higher and have won four of their last six, while Berwick have lost three of six and only one away match. Both sides have shown enough inconsistency to keep a draw plausible, especially with Airdrieonians' modest home form.
- Airdrieonians overall: 6W-3D-6L, 1.33 goals scored and conceded per game.
- Airdrieonians home: 3W-2D-3L, 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per home game.
- Airdrieonians have drawn 3 of 15 overall and 2 of 8 at home.
- Berwick have drawn 3 of 15 overall and 2 of 6 away.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAirdrieonians or DrawEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Airdrieonians are stronger overall but first halves are often tight, so they have only a modest lead chance at the break. First-half draws are common and Airdrieonians' home first halves have been low-scoring, making the draw the single most likely half-time result.
- Airdrieonians first-half goals for: 0.67 per game; against: 0.33.
- Airdrieonians home first-half goals for: 0.38; against: 0.38.
- Airdrieonians first-half goals for: 0.67; against: 0.33.
- Berwick first-half goals for: 1.07; against: 1.00.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAirdrieonians or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Berwick's matches are often high-scoring and Airdrieonians have had a few open games, making over 2.5 the slightly better side.
- Airdrieonians overall goals for and against average: 2.67 per game.
- Berwick overall goals for and against average: 3.87 per game.
- Airdrieonians' last six: two matches above 2.5 goals.
- Berwick's last six: three matches above 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both teams score often enough, and Berwick rarely keep clean sheets away, so both teams finding the net is more likely than not.
- Airdrieonians scored in 10 of 15; Berwick scored in 11 of 15.
- Berwick conceded in 13 of 15 and in all 6 away matches.
- Airdrieonians conceded in 10 of 15 and in 4 of 8 at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Airdrieonians' typical scoring output is one goal or fewer, making under 1.5 team goals the stronger side.
- Airdrieonians average 1.33 goals per game overall.
- Airdrieonians average 1.00 goal per home game.
- Airdrieonians scored 0 or 1 in 4 of their last 6.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAirdrieonians under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Berwick's recent scoring has dipped to one goal or fewer in most games, so under 1.5 is slightly favored.
- Berwick scored 0 or 1 in 5 of their last 6.
- Berwick's recent six matches produced six goals.
- Airdrieonians have kept 5 clean sheets in 15.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBerwick under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Berwick score in most matches, so Airdrieonians keeping a clean sheet is less likely than not.
- Berwick scored in 11 of 15 overall.
- Berwick scored in 5 of 6 away matches.
- Airdrieonians conceded in 10 of 15 overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBerwick to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Berwick have not kept an away clean sheet in the available sample, and Airdrieonians usually score.
- Berwick kept 0 clean sheets in 6 away matches.
- Airdrieonians scored in 10 of 15 overall.
- Airdrieonians scored in 6 of 8 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAirdrieonians to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Both teams have shown they can score before half-time, so at least one first-half goal is very likely.
- Airdrieonians first-half goals for: 0.67; against: 0.33.
- Berwick first-half goals for: 1.07; against: 1.00.
- Berwick away first-half goals for: 0.83.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Airdrieonians' home first halves are tight, so both teams scoring before the break is not the favored outcome.
- Airdrieonians first-half goals for: 0.67; against: 0.33.
- Berwick first-half goals for: 1.07; against: 1.00.
- Airdrieonians home first-half goals for and against: 0.38 each.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring averages sit below two goals, making under 1.5 the slightly stronger side.
- Airdrieonians second-half goals for: 0.67; against: 1.00.
- Berwick second-half goals for: 0.87; against: 0.93.
- Airdrieonians home second-half goals for: 0.63; against: 0.88.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W0-3Berwick RangersvAirdrie UnitedJul 21, 2018LEA

3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Airdrieonians

W6-1Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticSep 22CHA

W2-1PeterheadSep 19LEA

W1-0Alloa AthleticSep 12LEA

W1-0St. Mirren U21Sep 8CHA

L1-2Queen of the SouthSep 5LEA

D0-0East FifeAug 29LEA

L1-3Stirling AlbionAug 25CHA

L1-3Ross CountyAug 22LEA

L0-4Hamilton AcademicalAug 15LEA

W3-1DumbartonAug 11CHA

D1-1East KilbrideAug 8LEA

D0-0Cove RangersAug 1LEA

L0-3Ross CountyJul 25LEA

W3-0Annan AthleticJul 18LEA

L0-1ClydeJul 14LEA

Berwick

W3-2StranraerSep 22CHA

D0-0Musselburgh AthleticSep 19FOO

L1-2Civil Service StrollersSep 15FOO

L1-2Tranent JuniorsSep 12FOO

W1-0Hibernian U21Sep 8CHA

L0-2Broxburn AthleticAug 29FOO

D2-2Annan AthleticAug 25CHA

L0-2Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticAug 22FOO

W3-2Stirling UniversityAug 15FOO

L3-4Hearts U21Aug 11CHA

L3-4BrechinAug 8FOO

L0-2Hill Of Beath HawthornAug 1FOO

D1-1Lochee UnitedJul 25FOO

W4-2Bo'ness UnitedApr 18FOO

W7-2Gretna 2008Apr 11FOO

Squad & Injuries

Airdrieonians

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Berwick

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Draw

Yes

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Airdrieonians

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Airdrieonians

Berwick

Squad & Injuries

Airdrieonians

Berwick