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Predictions graded

Queen of the South1Annan Athletic1

HT 0–0Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 18:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Queen of the South are the higher-division side at home, but they have just lost 0-8 and 1-4, and Annan have won once in seven away matches while scoring 0.43 goals a game.

Queen of the South to win at 2.05, under 2.5 goals at 2.15 and both teams not to score at 2.2 all carry potential value; Annan at 2.9 and the draw at 3.8 do not.

Context

Queen of the South go into a home cup tie straight after their heaviest defeat of the tracked window.
It is one match, and an away one, so it does not by itself say much about this tie at home. It does show how quickly a single game can get away from them when the defence is opened up. Annan score very little on the road, so a repeat is unlikely, but the record is a reminder that the home side's back line has been fragile.
- 15 September 2026: Queen of the South lost 0-8 away to Ross County in League One.
- They trailed 0-2 at half-time and conceded six goals after the break.
Annan travel to a higher-division club with almost no away returns behind them this season.
Seven matches between 18 July and 19 September 2026 is a small sample, so this is a lean rather than a fixed rate. Three goals in seven away games is the single clearest reason the tie shapes up as low-scoring from Annan's side. One early away goal would change that picture quickly, which is the main thing working against the reading.
- Annan Athletic's away split covers 7 matches between 18 July and 19 September 2026: 1 win, 0 draws, 6 losses.
- In that sample they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per away match.
It is the only four-goal return in Annan's tracked window and it came in this competition.
Cup ties can throw up scorelines that league form does not predict, and Annan have shown they can be productive in this competition on their own pitch. The counterpoint is venue: this tie is at Queen of the South, and Annan's away scoring has been a fraction of their home output. A 4-0 win over an under-21 side is also a different test from a senior away trip.
- 8 September 2026: Annan Athletic 4-0 Motherwell U21 in the Challenge Cup.
- Annan scored two goals in the first half and two in the second.
Queen of the South won the last completed head-to-head on Annan's own pitch.
It is a single match played well before this tie, so it carries limited weight on its own. What it does show is that the away side can be kept off the scoresheet in this fixture, which fits Annan's low away scoring returns. The other meetings in the series were closer, including a 1-1 draw at Palmerston, so it is not a one-sided rivalry.
- 5 April 2025: Annan Athletic 0-2 Queen of the South in League One.
- It is the most recent of the five meetings between the clubs listed between March 2024 and April 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Queen of the South are higher division and much stronger at home, while Annan struggle on the road.
- Queen of the South home record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in 7 home matches.
- Annan Athletic away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 6 losses in 7 away matches.
- At home against Annan, Queen of the South won 2-0 and drew 1-1 in their last two meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostQueen of the SouthEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Queen of the South are more likely to lead at half-time because Annan rarely score before the break away from home.
- Queen of the South home first-half goals average 0.57.
- Annan away first-half goals average 0.14.
- Annan away first-half goals against average 1.14.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostQueen of the SouthEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A drawn second half is the most likely single outcome because the expected scoring is low and balanced.
- Queen of the South home second-half goals average 0.71 and conceded 0.86.
- Annan away second-half goals average 0.29 and conceded 0.57.
- Second-half totals are close between the teams.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Queen of the South are higher division and much stronger at home, while Annan struggle on the road. A tight cup tie is possible given Annan's low away scoring and Queen of the South's mixed home form.
- Queen of the South home record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in 7 home matches.
- Annan Athletic away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 6 losses in 7 away matches.
- Queen of the South have drawn 2 of 14 overall.
- Annan have drawn 1 of 14 overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonQueen of the South or DrawEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Queen of the South are more likely to lead at half-time because Annan rarely score before the break away from home. A level first half is very plausible given Annan's low first-half away scoring and Queen of the South's modest home first-half output.
- Queen of the South home first-half goals average 0.57.
- Annan away first-half goals average 0.14.
- Queen of the South home first-half goals average 0.57 and conceded 0.43.
- Annan away first-half goals average 0.14 and conceded 1.14.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonQueen of the South or DrawEstimated chance88%

Goals7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15
The read
H2H meetings have mostly stayed under 2.5, and Annan score very little away.
- Queen of the South home matches average 2.58 total goals.
- Annan away matches average 2.14 total goals.
- Last five H2H meetings produced one over 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Annan rarely score away from home, so one team may be kept off the scoresheet.
- Queen of the South home both-teams-scored: 3 of 7.
- Annan away both-teams-scored: 2 of 7.
- H2H both teams scored in 2 of last 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Queen of the South's home average is below 1.5 goals, so they often score one or none.
- Queen of the South home goals average 1.29 per match.
- Queen of the South scored 2+ in one of their last two home matches.
- Annan away concede 1.71 goals per match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonQueen of the South under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Annan's away scoring is very low, making under 1.5 the clear likelihood.
- Annan away goals average 0.43 per match.
- Annan scored 0 or 1 in their last two away matches.
- Queen of the South home concede 1.29 per match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAnnan Athletic under 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Queen of the South have conceded regularly, so a clean sheet is not the more likely outcome.
- Queen of the South kept 2 clean sheets in 7 home matches.
- Annan failed to score in 4 of 7 away matches.
- Annan away goals average 0.43.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAnnan Athletic to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Queen of the South score in most home games, making an Annan clean sheet unlikely.
- Annan kept 1 clean sheet in 7 away matches.
- Queen of the South failed to score in 2 of 7 home matches.
- Queen of the South home goals average 1.29.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonQueen of the South to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A Queen of the South win is likely, but a clean sheet is less certain, making other win types more probable.
- Queen of the South won 3 of 7 home matches.
- Queen of the South kept 2 clean sheets at home.
- Annan failed to score in 4 of 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
At least one first-half goal is likely because Annan concede early away and Queen of the South score some at home.
- Queen of the South home first-half goals average 0.57.
- Annan away first-half goals against average 1.14.
- Combined first-half expected goals are above 1.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Annan's very low first-half away scoring makes it unlikely both teams score before the break.
- Queen of the South home first-half goals average 0.57.
- Annan away first-half goals average 0.14.
- Annan away first-half goals against average 1.14.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Under 1.5 second-half goals is more likely given the low second-half scoring averages for both teams.
- Queen of the South home second-half goals average 0.71.
- Annan away second-half goals average 0.29.
- Combined second-half expected goals are around 1.2.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-2Annan AthleticvQueen of the SouthApr 5, 2025LEA

D1-1Queen of the SouthvAnnan AthleticDec 28, 2024LEA

L1-0Annan AthleticvQueen of the SouthOct 26, 2024LEA

W2-0Queen of the SouthvAnnan AthleticAug 17, 2024LEA

L2-1Annan AthleticvQueen of the SouthMar 9, 2024LEA

Queen of the South: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Queen of the South

L1-4Hamilton AcademicalSep 19LEA

L0-8Ross CountySep 15LEA

D1-1East FifeSep 12LEA

D1-1Edinburgh CitySep 8CHA

W2-1Airdrie UnitedSep 5LEA

L1-2MontroseAug 29LEA

W1-0Hibernian U21Aug 25CHA

L0-2Alloa AthleticAug 22LEA

W4-0Cumbernauld ColtsAug 11CHA

L0-1PeterheadAug 8LEA

L1-5East KilbrideAug 1LEA

L1-3Queen's ParkJul 25LEA

L1-4AberdeenJul 22LEA

W3-0Brora RangersJul 18LEA

L1-2Crusaders FCJul 4FRI

Annan Athletic

L0-1Forfar AthleticSep 19LEA

W2-0Elgin CitySep 12LEA

W4-0Motherwell U21Sep 8CHA

L1-2Kelty HeartsSep 5LEA

W2-0DumbartonAug 29LEA

D2-2Berwick RangersAug 25CHA

L0-1Edinburgh CityAug 22LEA

L1-2ClydeAug 15LEA

L0-1Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticAug 11CHA

W1-0StranraerAug 8LEA

L2-4SpartansAug 1LEA

L2-3Ashton TownJul 25FRI

L1-4ClydeJul 21LEA

L0-3Airdrie UnitedJul 18LEA

L0-5DundeeJul 14LEA

Squad & Injuries

Queen of the South

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Annan Athletic

24 available

Attackers5

Midfielders5

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Under 2.5

Queen of the South

Queen of the South or Draw

Queen of the South or Draw

Queen of the South

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Queen of the South

Annan Athletic

Squad & Injuries

Queen of the South

Annan Athletic