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Predictions graded

GKS Tychy3Górnik Łęczna0

HT 1–0Sun 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 16:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Second meets third with both on 20 points and neither beaten in the league since early August, so the question is whether Tychy's tight home defence holds against Górnik's scoring run.

A draw or an away win is the likelier outcome, in a game where both teams scoring looks unlikely. Górnik to avoid defeat at 1.85, both teams not to score at 1.95, the draw at 3.5 and under 2.5 goals at 1.95 are the prices that hold up.

Context

Górnik's card report after the 3:1 win over Chojniczanka on 4 October records a fourth league booking for Novotny, ruling the Czech forward out of the trip to Tychy. Górnik rotate their front line: Novotny started against Legia Warszawa II on 12 September but was among the substitutes against Chojniczanka. The suspension therefore thins the attacking bench rather than removing a guaranteed starter, since Korbecki, Quainoo and Janaszek began the most recent league game.
- Novotny was booked in Górnik Łęczna's 3:1 league win over Chojniczanka on 4 October 2026.
- The booking was his fourth in the league, suspending him for the match at GKS Tychy.
- Rafał Kobryń was also booked in the same game but was not suspended.
- J. Novotny started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 16:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Korbecki was voted Górnik's player of the month for September and then scored the opening goal in the 3:1 win over Chojniczanka on 4 October, with club figures putting him on five league goals after 10 rounds. He is the individual scoring detail attached to Górnik's current unbeaten run and the player Tychy's defence will have to track. The goals have come inside a strong collective spell, so the record reflects the team's attacking form as much as a one-man surge.
- Bartłomiej Korbecki was chosen as Górnik Łęczna's player of the month for September 2026.
- He scored Górnik's opening goal in the 3:1 win over Chojniczanka on 4 October 2026.
- Górnik's post-round-10 figures list him with five goals.
- B. Korbecki started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 16:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Both clubs sit on 20 points after 10 rounds, three behind leaders Znicz Pruszków, so the round-11 fixture directly shapes the early promotion race. The game puts the division's only unbeaten side, GKS Tychy, against a Górnik team on a seven-match league run. Neither club has lost in the league for more than two months, which gives the meeting more edge than a routine third-tier weekend.
- After 10 rounds, GKS Tychy and Górnik Łęczna each have 20 points.
- Znicz Pruszków lead the division on 23 points.
- The fixture is the 11th round of the 2026/27 Betclic 2. Liga season.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 16:44 · Europe/BucharestTVP Sport broadcast listingsatkurier.pl · 5 Oct 2026
Górnik have not lost a league game since 9 August 2026, a seven-match sequence that includes the 3:1 win over Chojniczanka in the previous round plus heavy wins over Podhale Nowy Targ and Sokół Kleczew. The club also counts an unbeaten eight-match stretch once the 2:2 friendly at Widzew Łódź on 26 September is included. The run has been built on a fairly settled eleven, but the trip to an unbeaten Tychy side is a tougher test than most of the sequence.
- Górnik Łęczna's last league defeat came on 9 August 2026.
- They have gone seven league matches without defeat since then.
- The run includes a 3:1 win over Chojniczanka on 4 October 2026.
- Counting a 2:2 friendly at Widzew Łódź on 26 September 2026, the club describes the stretch as eight matches without loss.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 16:44 · Europe/BucharestTVP Sport broadcast listingsatkurier.pl · 5 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tychy are unbeaten and concede very little at home, giving them a fair claim on the points.
- GKS Tychy: 7W-5D-0L in 12 competitive matches, 5 goals conceded
- Tychy at home: 4W-2D-0L, five clean sheets in six games
- Górnik league record 6W-2D-2L, away 2W-2D-1L
- Both clubs on 20 points after 10 rounds
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGKS TychyEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Both teams often reach half-time level, with Tychy's home first halves especially quiet.
- Tychy first-half goals for: 0.58 per game
- Tychy home first-half goals against: 0
- Górnik first-half goals for: 0.82 per game
- Górnik have been level at half-time in four of their last six
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves between these sides often stay balanced, with Tychy defending well after the break.
- Górnik second-half goals against: 0.64 per game
- Tychy second-half goals against: 0.25 per game
- Górnik away second-half goals for: 1.0 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tychy are unbeaten and concede very little at home, giving them a fair claim on the points. Tychy draw often and defend tightly at home, while Górnik also share points on the road, so a level result is plausible.
- GKS Tychy: 7W-5D-0L in 12 competitive matches, 5 goals conceded
- Tychy at home: 4W-2D-0L, five clean sheets in six games
- Tychy have drawn 5 of 10 league games
- Górnik have drawn 2 of 5 away league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGKS Tychy or DrawEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams often reach half-time level, with Tychy's home first halves especially quiet. Tychy rarely concede before the break and can edge a tight first half.
- Tychy first-half goals for: 0.58 per game
- Tychy home first-half goals against: 0
- Tychy first-half goals against at home: 0
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGKS Tychy or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Tychy's matches are low-scoring and their home games especially so, pointing to fewer than three goals.
- Tychy matches average 1.83 total goals
- Tychy home: 1.17 scored, 0.17 conceded per game
- Górnik away: 1.6 scored, 1.0 conceded per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Tychy's home defence is the strongest part of their game and Górnik do not always score on the road.
- Tychy kept clean sheets in 5 of 6 home games
- Tychy conceded in only 5 of 12 competitive matches
- Górnik failed to score in 2 of 5 away league games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tychy's home attacking output is limited, so staying below two goals is the likelier outcome.
- Tychy home goals for: 1.17 per game
- Tychy scored 5 goals across 4 league home games
- Tychy have been held to one goal or fewer in most home games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostGKS Tychy under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tychy's home defence has been hard to break down, so holding Górnik to one goal or none is the likelier outcome.
- Górnik away goals for: 1.6 per game
- Tychy home goals against: 0.17 per game
- Tychy kept five clean sheets in six home games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGórnik Łęczna under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Górnik's away scoring rate makes it more likely than not that Tychy's home goal is finally breached.
- Górnik scored 8 goals in 5 away league games
- Górnik scored in 3 of 5 away league games
- Tychy conceded in 5 of 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGórnik Łęczna to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tychy find the net with great regularity, so Górnik are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Tychy scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches
- Tychy have scored in every league home game
- Górnik kept clean sheets in only 2 of 5 away league games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGKS Tychy to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tychy may win, but Górnik's away scoring threat makes a clean-sheet win less likely than not.
- Górnik scored in 3 of 5 away league games
- Tychy won 4 of 6 home matches
- Tychy conceded only once at home
- Górnik have scored four goals twice recently
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tychy's regular scoring makes it very unlikely that Górnik win without conceding.
- Tychy scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches
- Tychy have scored in every league home game
- Górnik kept clean sheets in 2 of 5 away league games
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both sides score occasionally before the break, so a first-half goal looks more likely than none.
- Tychy first-half goals for: 0.58 per game
- Górnik first-half goals for: 0.82 per game
- Tychy conceded only 3 first-half goals in 12 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tychy's tight home second halves make a quieter period after the break more likely.
- Tychy second-half goals against at home: 0.17 per game
- Tychy home second-half goals for: 0.83 per game
- Tychy's matches are low-scoring overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L1-0Górnik ŁęcznavTychy 71Feb 20, 2026I L

D2-2Tychy 71vGórnik ŁęcznaAug 17, 2025I L

L3-1Tychy 71vGórnik ŁęcznaMay 25, 2025I L

D2-2Górnik ŁęcznavTychy 71Nov 23, 2024I L

W0-1Tychy 71vGórnik ŁęcznaMay 26, 2024I L

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	GKS Tychy	10	5	5	0	14-6	20	WDDWD
2	Górnik Łęczna	10	6	2	2	21-10	20	WDWWW

Recent Form

GKS Tychy

W2-0Hutnik KrakówOct 3II

D0-0Sandecja Nowy SączSep 20II

D1-1Znicz PruszkówSep 11II

W1-0Avia ŚwidnikSep 6II

W1-0ŁKS ŁódźSep 3CUP

D1-1Świt SkolwinAug 30II

W3-0Śląsk Wrocław IIAug 23II

D2-2Resovia RzeszówAug 15II

D1-1Olimpia GrudziądzAug 9II

W1-0Zaglebie SosnowiecAug 5CUP

W2-1Stal Stalowa WolaJul 31II

W1-0Chojniczanka ChojniceJul 26II

D1-1TřinecJul 18FRI

D2-2Považská BystricaJul 18FRI

W2-1Sigma Olomouc IIJul 11FRI

Górnik Łęczna

W3-1Chojniczanka ChojniceOct 4II

D2-2Widzew ŁódźSep 26FRI

D0-0Zawisza BydgoszczSep 18II

W4-1Legia Warszawa IISep 12II

W4-0Sokół KleczewSep 5II

W1-0Rekord Bielsko-BiałaAug 30II

D1-1Sandecja Nowy SączAug 21II

W5-2Podhale Nowy TargAug 14II

L0-2Śląsk Wrocław IIAug 9II

W2-0KaliszAug 5CUP

L0-1Avia ŚwidnikAug 1II

W3-2Świt SkolwinJul 25II

L0-2Hapoel KatamonJul 19FRI

W4-1Chełmianka ChełmJul 11FRI

L0-1Hetman ZamoscJul 8FRI

Squad & Injuries

GKS Tychy

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Górnik Łęczna

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Górnik Łęczna

No

Draw

Under 2.5

Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

GKS Tychy

Górnik Łęczna

Squad & Injuries

GKS Tychy

Górnik Łęczna