Samsunspor0Trabzonspor3

HT 0–3Sat 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 23–13On targetOn target 6–7CornersCorners 9–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 05:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Two clubs without a league win in the relevant half of the split meet in the Black Sea derby.

Trabzonspor, seventh and 4-0 winners over Galatasaray last time out, are likelier to win, but they have not won away this season; Samsunspor have conceded 10 in three home league games. The one price that offers anything is both teams to score — No at 2.25, while Trabzonspor at 2.0 and Over 2.5 at 1.62 ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Reis took charge at Trabzonspor in September 2026 after leaving Samsunspor, where he had worked since June 2024 and is remembered for building a squad under transfer restrictions into a third-place Süper Lig side. That history matters for this fixture because Trabzonspor's preparation for a specific opponent is being led by a coach who already knows these players up close, and their own training reports show him running the sessions before the trip. The limitation is that the knowledge is dated: Samsunspor changed head coach and heavily rebuilt the group over the summer, with Thorsten Fink now publicly backing a young side, so the team Reis meets is not the one he left.
- Trabzonspor prepared for the trip to Samsun in sessions led by head coach Thomas Reis at the Mehmet Ali Yılmaz Tesisleri, working on passing and narrow-space play
- Reis is described in Samsun coverage as the club's former head coach and now arrives at 19 Mayıs Stadyumu as an opponent with Trabzonspor
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Fink's message came out of a training session on 5 October that supporters attended, and it was repeated by sports outlets that evening. It matters because Samsunspor are the side under pressure in this derby, with four league defeats behind them and a president answering criticism, so mobilising the ground is one of the few levers a coach has in the days before kick-off. It is not evidence of a selection or tactical change, and the framing is Fink's own.
- Fink: "We know that the Trabzonspor match is a very important game. We will need everyone. On Saturday it will be one city against another."
- Fink: "It may be one of the most important matches of the year. This young team needs you and your support, and on Saturday it will fight for you."
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Samsunspor's most recent home meeting with Trabzonspor was a 3-0 defeat in February 2026, with Onuachu scoring in each half and a late penalty completing it. It is the closest thing to a template for this fixture: two of the players involved, Onuachu and Muçi, are still in the Trabzonspor squad making the trip, while the Samsunspor side has since been rebuilt under a new coach. The caveat is that the night was managed by Thomas Reis, who was then Samsunspor's coach and is now in the away dugout, so the tactical picture from it carries limited weight.
- Trabzonspor won 3-0 away at Samsunspor in the Turkish Süper Lig on Saturday 7 February 2026
- Paul Onuachu scored in the 23rd and 81st minutes and E. Muçi converted a penalty in the 90th minute and beyond
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:18 · Europe/BucharestMatch reportwww.bbc.com · 7 Feb 2026
Salah's three goals against Galatasaray on 19 September came in Trabzonspor's last league outing before the international break and their standout result of the young season. For this trip it matters as the clearest evidence of where Trabzonspor's threat sits, concentrated in one player who has already produced a decisive burst against the strongest opponent they have faced. The limitation is that one afternoon says little about Samsunspor, and the most recent meeting between these clubs was decided by other players, so it is a narrow reference point.
- Mohamed Salah scored three times as Trabzonspor beat Galatasaray 4-0 at home in Süper Lig week 6 on 19 September 2026, with Noah Saviolo scoring the other goal
- The 4-0 win moved Trabzonspor to 10 points and ended Galatasaray's unbeaten start to the season
- Mohamed Salah started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 05:18 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

−5.0ppshort

First halves in both teams' recent matches have usually contained at least one goal.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Samsunspor or Trabzonspor

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

−4.9ppshort

Samsunspor score at a decent rate at home and face a Trabzonspor side that has not won away in the league, but their home defensive record is the weak point. Trabzonspor are the stronger side by league table and recent scoring and won comfortably on their last visit, while Samsunspor have conceded heavily at home.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

−6.7ppshort

Both teams have recent matches with plenty of goals and each side's defensive numbers point to a moderately open game rather than a tight one.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Trabzonspor

2.00fair 2.33

BetBugs 43% · Market 50%

−7.0ppshort

Trabzonspor are the stronger side by league table and recent scoring and won comfortably on their last visit, while Samsunspor have conceded heavily at home.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.00
The read
Trabzonspor are the stronger side by league table and recent scoring and won comfortably on their last visit, while Samsunspor have conceded heavily at home.
- Trabzonspor are 7th with 10 points from 6 league games, scoring 13 and conceding 5
- They won the last meeting at this ground 3-0 in February 2026
- Across 10 competitive matches they average 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded
- Their away league record is 0W 1D 2L, with 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTrabzonsporEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Derbies often start cautiously and the half-time scoreline remains level in a large share of matches.
- Samsunspor average 1.8 total first-half goals per match
- Trabzonspor average 1.6 total first-half goals per match
- First-half scorelines in recent Samsunspor games were 0-1, 1-3, 0-1, 0-1, 1-0 and 2-1
- Trabzonspor led or trailed at half time in most recent matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With low second-half away scoring from Trabzonspor, a level second half is the most likely single outcome.
- Samsunspor average 1.6 total second-half goals per match at home
- Trabzonspor average 1.25 total second-half goals per away match
- Trabzonspor's away second-half goals scored average is 0.0
- Samsunspor's overall second halves average 1.6 goals combined
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Samsunspor score at a decent rate at home and face a Trabzonspor side that has not won away in the league, but their home defensive record is the weak point. Trabzonspor are the stronger side by league table and recent scoring and won comfortably on their last visit, while Samsunspor have conceded heavily at home.
- Samsunspor are 16th with 4 points from 6 league games (1W 1D 4L, 6 scored, 12 conceded)
- At home in the league they are 0W 1D 2L, scoring 4 and conceding 10
- Trabzonspor are 7th with 10 points from 6 league games, scoring 13 and conceding 5
- They won the last meeting at this ground 3-0 in February 2026
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSamsunspor or TrabzonsporEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derbies often start cautiously and the half-time scoreline remains level in a large share of matches. Trabzonspor have been quick starters in recent matches and Samsunspor concede more than a goal a game before the break at home.
- Samsunspor average 1.8 total first-half goals per match
- Trabzonspor average 1.6 total first-half goals per match
- Trabzonspor average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded overall
- Away they average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.75 conceded
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or TrabzonsporEstimated chance74%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both teams have recent matches with plenty of goals and each side's defensive numbers point to a moderately open game rather than a tight one.
- Samsunspor's home matches average 2.2 scored and 2.2 conceded
- Trabzonspor's away matches average 0.5 scored and 2.0 conceded
- Samsunspor's last six matches produced totals of 1, 6, 1, 2, 2 and 6 goals
- Trabzonspor's last six matches produced totals of 4, 1, 5, 3, 4 and 3 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Samsunspor score regularly at home and Trabzonspor concede often on their travels, while Trabzonspor's away attack and Samsunspor's home defence both point to goals at each end.
- Samsunspor both teams scored in 4 of 10 competitive matches and 3 of 5 home matches
- Trabzonspor both teams scored in 4 of 10 competitive matches and 2 of 4 away matches
- Samsunspor average 2.2 goals at home; Trabzonspor average 2.0 conceded away
- Trabzonspor average 0.5 scored away and Samsunspor concede 2.2 at home
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Trabzonspor's away scoring has been minimal this season, making two or more goals on the road unlikely.
- Trabzonspor have scored 0, 0, 1 and 0 in their four away matches
- Their overall away average is 0.5 goals per game
- They have not won away in the league this season
- Samsunspor kept one clean sheet in five home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostTrabzonspor under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's defensive record makes it more likely than not that Trabzonspor score at some point.
- Samsunspor concede 2.2 goals per home match and 1.8 overall
- They kept one clean sheet in 5 home matches
- Trabzonspor average 1.5 goals per competitive match
- Samsunspor conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTrabzonspor to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Samsunspor's home scoring rate and Trabzonspor's away defensive record both point to the home side finding the net.
- Samsunspor average 2.2 goals per home match
- They scored in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Trabzonspor concede 2.0 goals per away match
- Trabzonspor kept 2 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSamsunspor to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
First halves in both teams' recent matches have usually contained at least one goal.
- Samsunspor average 1.8 total first-half goals per match
- Trabzonspor average 1.6 total first-half goals per match
- Both teams scored or conceded first-half goals in five of their last six matches
- Samsunspor's last six first halves produced 0-1, 1-3, 0-1, 0-1, 1-0 and 2-1
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring inside the first half requires two separate events that the recent patterns rarely delivered.
- Trabzonspor score only 0.5 first-half goals per away match
- Trabzonspor concede 0.6 first-half goals per match overall
- Samsunspor's last six first halves were 0-1, 1-3, 0-1, 0-1, 1-0 and 2-1
- Few recent first halves saw both teams score
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Trabzonspor's minimal second-half away scoring and Samsunspor's moderate second-half output make under the more likely side of the line.
- Trabzonspor have scored 0.0 second-half goals per away match
- Their overall second-half scoring average is 0.5 per match
- Samsunspor's overall second-half totals average 1.6 goals combined
- Trabzonspor's away second halves total 1.25 goals combined
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Total corner averages of just over nine per game leave the under marginally favoured on this line.
- Samsunspor's recent corner totals were 8, 10, 8, 7, 11 and 12
- Trabzonspor's recent corner totals were 6, 10, 9, 7, 13 and 6
- Samsunspor average 9.3 corners combined per match
- Trabzonspor average 9.3 corners combined per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samsunspor's home matches have produced shot totals above this line in most recent games, and Trabzonspor also generate a healthy share.
- Samsunspor average 12.7 shots for and 16.3 against per match
- Trabzonspor average 13.7 shots for and 12.7 against per match
- Samsunspor's home matches average 14.4 shots for and 16.4 against
- Trabzonspor's away matches average 12 shots for and 12.3 against
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 26.5Estimated chance55%