Paks3MTK Budapest0

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 20–8On targetOn target 7–2CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 06:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Paks have won the last five meetings with MTK, but MTK have drawn all three of their league away games and arrive with the division's leading scorer.

Paks are the marginal pick in a game where both sides score and concede regularly. The draw at 4.00 and Under 2.5 at 3.40 are the two prices that hold up; Over 2.5 at 1.25 and both teams to score at 1.30 ask more than the evidence supports.

Context

MTK's Gábor Jurek topped the NB I scoring chart when the MLSZ previewed the eighth round on 18 September 2026, with seven goals in his first eight appearances of the season, and he was a first-time senior Hungary call-up the same month. Standing as MTK's most reliable finisher makes him the reference point for how Paks organise their back line in this fixture. The limitation is timing: the tally is anchored to the last completed league round in mid-September, so it says nothing about his form after the October international window.
- Led the NB I scoring chart with seven goals in his first eight league appearances of 2026-27, as reported in the MLSZ round-eight preview of 18 September 2026.
- Named for the first time in a senior Hungary squad in the September 2026 announcement covering the Nations League fixtures against Ukraine, Northern Ireland and Georgia.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 06:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Paks' József Szalai was the division's second-highest scorer midway through the autumn programme, and the MLSZ's 18 September breakdown credited him with 7.86 expected goals on target from 5.39 expected goals, plus the most aerial duels won among players with at least 190 minutes. That mix of shot quality and aerial presence is the specific problem it hands MTK's centre-backs in this away fixture. The supporting numbers were published in mid-September, so they describe his output through the eighth round rather than anything later.
- Six NB I goals in 2026-27 and second in the division's scoring chart when the MLSZ previewed round eight on 18 September 2026.
- First senior Hungary call-up, announced with the September 2026 squad.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 06:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Paks own the head-to-head record, while MTK's league away form in 2026-27 is three draws from three.
Five straight wins cover the period from 7 December 2024 to 20 March 2026 and include 4-2 and 3-1 home victories plus 2-1, 3-2 and 2-0 successes in Budapest. It is the clearest single argument for the home side, but it is also a five-match sample, and four of those games had goals at both ends. MTK have not lost any of their league away matches this season, so the same record still leaves room for a share of the points.
- MTK Budapest 0-2 Paks, NB I, 20 March 2026 — the most recent meeting between the clubs.
- Paks' five-match winning run in the fixture runs from 7 December 2024 (4-2 at home) to that 20 March 2026 win.
MTK travel unbeaten but winless away, which keeps the draw live at Paks without making them favourites.
The three away draws are the clearest recent evidence of MTK's resilience, and they arrive seventh on nine points from eight matches with a league form of two wins, three draws and three defeats. The caveat is that the same away record contains no wins, while Paks have taken all five recent meetings in this fixture. Unbeaten away and unable to win away is a narrow base for MTK.
- Standings snapshot of 7 October 2026: MTK's away league record is played 3, won 0, drawn 3, lost 0, goals for 6, goals against 6.
- MTK sit seventh in NB I on nine points from eight matches, with two wins, three draws and three defeats.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paks have a strong recent record in this fixture and score consistently at home, while MTK have drawn three of four away matches.
- Paks won all five recent head-to-head meetings.
- Paks home split: 2W 1D 2L, scoring 2.2 goals per game.
- MTK away split: 0W 3D 1L, scoring 2.0 goals per game.
- Paks sit sixth, MTK seventh, two points apart.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPaksEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently finish the first half level, and neither has a clear early edge.
- Paks were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- MTK were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Paks home first-half goal difference: -0.2 per game.
- MTK away first-half goal difference: +0.25 per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paks are stronger after the break at home, while MTK have struggled in second halves recently.
- Paks home second-half goals: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
- MTK away second-half goals: 0.75 scored, 0.5 conceded per game.
- Paks won the second half in 2 of their last 6 matches and drew 4.
- MTK lost the second half in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonPaksEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Paks have a strong recent record in this fixture and score consistently at home, while MTK have drawn three of four away matches. MTK's away draws and Paks' mixed overall form make a share of the points a real possibility.
- Paks won all five recent head-to-head meetings.
- Paks home split: 2W 1D 2L, scoring 2.2 goals per game.
- MTK have drawn three of four away matches in the league.
- Paks have drawn three of eleven competitive matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPaks or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently finish the first half level, and neither has a clear early edge. MTK's away first-half scoring and Paks' early concessions give the visitors a real chance to lead at the break.
- Paks were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- MTK were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- MTK away first-half goals: 1.25 scored per game.
- Paks home first-half goals conceded: 1.2 per game.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or MTK BudapestEstimated chance72%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede regularly, and recent meetings have produced high goal totals.
- Paks competitive matches average 3.91 total goals (1.91 for, 2.00 against).
- MTK competitive matches average 3.44 total goals (1.89 for, 1.56 against).
- Four of the last five head-to-heads went over 2.5 goals.
- Paks home games average 4.2 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both sides have reliable scorers and regularly concede, making both teams scoring likely.
- Paks scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches; MTK scored in 7 of 9.
- Paks home split: both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches.
- MTK away split: both teams scored in 3 of 4 matches.
- Four of the last five head-to-heads had both teams scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
First-half goals are common for both sides, making at least one goal before the break likely.
- Paks competitive first-half goals average 2.09 per match (0.91 for, 1.18 against).
- MTK competitive first-half goals average 1.56 per match (0.78 for, 0.78 against).
- Both teams scored in the first half in 8 of their combined last 12 matches.
- Paks home first-half total averages 2.2 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
MTK's away second halves are low-scoring, and Paks have had several quiet second periods.
- Paks home second-half total averages 2.0 goals.
- MTK away second-half total averages 1.25 goals.
- Three of Paks' last six second halves had under 1.5 goals.
- Four of MTK's last six second halves had under 1.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' average corner totals are slightly below the line, and recent totals have often been modest.
- Paks overall corner total averages 10.9 per match.
- MTK overall corner total averages 10.17 per match.
- Paks' last three recorded corner totals were 11, 7, 9.
- MTK's last two recorded corner totals were 11, 7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paks generate high shot volumes at home, and MTK's recent matches have also been shot-heavy.
- Paks home shots total: 20.6 for, 15.6 against per game.
- MTK away shots total: 12.5 for, 18.5 against per game (2 matches).
- Paks' last five recorded shot totals: 28, 46, 32, 41, 30.
- MTK's last three recorded shot totals: 41, 34, 35.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 33.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined SOT averages are around or below the line, and Paks' recent totals often fell short.
- Paks overall SOT total averages 11.7 per match.
- MTK overall SOT total averages 13.17 per match.
- Three of Paks' last five recorded SOT totals were under 13.5.
- MTK away SOT total averages 12.5 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 13.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced card totals around or above the line, with several high-card games.
- Paks overall yellow cards: 1.8 for, 1.5 against per game; one red in three recorded matches.
- MTK overall yellow cards: 1.83 for, 2.17 against per game; one opponent red in one recorded match.
- Paks' last three recorded total cards: 2, 6, 4.
- MTK's last three recorded total cards: 5, 2, 6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance58%