Lille1Le Havre0

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 15:15 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 5–17On targetOn target 1–2CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 11:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Lille are the likelier winners, but their one win in five tracked home matches and Le Havre's 1W 2D 1L away record leave the door open.

The draw at 4.75, Le Havre to win or draw at 2.75, under 2.5 goals at 2.2 and no goals in the first half at 3.4 are the quotes with something to offer. The 1.4 for Lille to win and 1.1 for Lille to be level or ahead at half-time ask too much.

Context

Bodart was on Lille's books until September, when he terminated his contract and signed for Le Havre on 16 September as a medical joker following Lionel Mpasi's Achilles rupture at Brest. The trip to Pierre-Mauroy is therefore a return to his former club, in a Le Havre side still rebuilding its goalkeeping department. Didier Digard said when the signing was arranged that Gauthier Gallon would stay first choice for now, so Bodart appearing at Lille is a possibility rather than a settled selection.
- Bodart, 28, terminated his Lille contract and signed for Le Havre on 16 September 2026 as a medical joker until the end of the season.
- Le Havre signed him after first-choice goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi suffered an Achilles injury in the 5 September 2026 Ligue 1 match at Brest.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 11:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Lille's own channels framed this fixture as a homecoming after roughly a month away from the Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, and the schedule does not ease once Le Havre are done: the Arsenal trip follows three days later, with Galatasaray to come in Europe. That compression is the obvious reason the home side may not simply field its strongest XI for the Ligue 1 game. No rotation plan has been stated publicly, so the effect on the line-up remains a reasonable expectation rather than a documented decision.
- Lille's schedule between 10 and 30 October 2026 lists Le Havre at home, Arsenal away in the Champions League, Brest at home, Galatasaray at home, Monaco away and Lens at home.
- Lille's Champions League opponents in that window are Arsenal, then Galatasaray, followed by Bodø/Glimt.
- Lille's own channels said the club had been away from the Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy for about a month before this fixture.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 11:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Mbappé's red card against Real Betis on 8 September brought a three-match Champions League ban covering Arsenal, Galatasaray and Bodø/Glimt. That sanction does not extend to Ligue 1, so the Le Havre fixture is unaffected and he remains available for domestic games during a month in which Lille also play in Europe. The limit is that this is a European-only suspension: his availability here says nothing about whether he starts or how many minutes he is given.
- Mbappé was sent off in Lille's Champions League match against Real Betis on 8 September 2026.
- He received a three-match suspension covering the Champions League matches against Arsenal, Galatasaray and Bodø/Glimt.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 11:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Seko was with Japan for the whole Kirin Cup window, starting the 5 October final against New Zealand at the National Stadium in Tokyo, so his return to France comes days before this fixture. He is a centre-back Didier Digard has publicly described as good enough for a bigger club, which makes his minutes and travel the main conditioning question on the away side. The tournament was a friendly competition, so the load is real while the intensity sits below a competitive international or Ligue 1 game.
- Seko started Japan's Kirin Cup 2026 final against New Zealand on 5 October 2026 and was listed in the Japan XI earlier in the tournament.
- Japan won the Kirin Cup 2026 by beating New Zealand 2-1.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 11:10 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lille are higher in the table, have much better recent league form and home advantage, while Le Havre are winless in five league matches.
- Lille rank 4th with 10 points from 5; Le Havre rank 18th with 2 points.
- Lille league form W3 D1 L1; Le Havre W0 D2 L3.
- Lille overall 4W 2D 3L in 9 competitive matches; Le Havre 1W 3D 4L in 8.
- Lille have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLilleEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.80
The read
Lille start well at home and Le Havre rarely score before half-time.
- Lille first-half goals for 0.78, against 0.44; Le Havre first-half goals for 0.25, against 0.38.
- Lille led at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Le Havre trailed at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLilleEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Le Havre's second halves have often been level, and Lille's home second-half record is mixed.
- Le Havre drew the second half in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Lille drew the second half in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Le Havre away second-half goals for and against both average 1.0.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lille are higher in the table, have much better recent league form and home advantage, while Le Havre are winless in five league matches. Le Havre have shown they can hold teams to draws, including at Lille in May, and Lille's home games have often been tight.
- Lille rank 4th with 10 points from 5; Le Havre rank 18th with 2 points.
- Lille league form W3 D1 L1; Le Havre W0 D2 L3.
- Lille have drawn 2 of 9 competitive matches; Le Havre have drawn 3 of 8.
- Le Havre have drawn 2 of 4 tracked away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLille or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Lille start well at home and Le Havre rarely score before half-time. Le Havre often keep the first half tight and low-scoring.
- Lille first-half goals for 0.78, against 0.44; Le Havre first-half goals for 0.25, against 0.38.
- Lille led at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Le Havre were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Lille drew the first half in 1 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonLille or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Le Havre's low scoring and Lille's modest goal output make under 2.5 slightly more likely.
- Lille overall average 2.44 combined goals per match; Le Havre 2.00.
- Le Havre have scored only 5 goals in 8 competitive matches.
- Le Havre failed to score in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Le Havre have found the net regularly enough and Lille have conceded in half of their recent matches.
- Lille have both scored and conceded in 4 of 9 competitive matches; Le Havre in 4 of 8.
- Le Havre have scored in four of their last six matches.
- Lille have conceded in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lille have scored at least twice in most recent matches and face a Le Havre side that concedes regularly.
- Lille scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Lille average 1.4 goals per home match.
- Le Havre concede 1.125 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostLille over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Le Havre's overall scoring rate is low and Lille have kept four clean sheets in nine competitive matches.
- Le Havre average 0.88 goals per game overall.
- Le Havre have failed to score in two of their last six matches.
- Lille kept 4 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonLe Havre under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lille's early scoring makes at least one first-half goal likely.
- Lille first-half total goals average 1.22 per match.
- Le Havre first-half total goals average 0.63 per match.
- Lille scored in the first half in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Le Havre matches tend to produce around ten corners, keeping the over line in play.
- Lille corners for+against average 9.22 per match; Le Havre 10.25.
- Le Havre's last six matches averaged 10.0 total corners.
- Lille's last six matches averaged 8.5 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are regularly involved in high-volume shot matches.
- Lille shots for+against average 25.22 per match; Le Havre 26.38.
- Lille's last six matches averaged 28.3 total shots.
- Le Havre's last six matches averaged 28.2 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 24.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lille's home matches have stayed below ten shots on target, making under slightly more likely.
- Lille home SOT for+against average 8.2 per match.
- Lille overall SOT for+against average 9.33.
- Le Havre overall SOT for+against average 9.38.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent card totals sit below 3.5, so under is more likely.
- Lille's last six matches averaged 3.0 total cards.
- Le Havre's last six matches averaged 3.17 total cards.
- Lille average 1.67 yellow cards; Le Havre 2.0.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%