1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Slight lean
Under 0.5 goals in 1st half
2.80fair 1.85
Market 35.7% · BetBugs 54%
+18.3ppedge
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams make under 0.5 first-half goals the more likely outcome.
Friendlies·Full time·Featured
Predictions graded
Colombia22 – 0
Peru0
HT 0–0· · Predictions graded
Predictions12–286%
Edges4–180%
PossPossession 68%–32%ShotsShots 0–2FoulsFouls 4–4
Quick Take
Pre-match view
Colombia close their October window in Miami still chasing a first win; Peru's winless run stands at four matches.
Colombia's competitive record and Peru's scoreless competitive run make a tight, low-scoring night or a draw the likeliest shape. Prices that come out ahead: no first-half goals at 2.8, under 7.5 corners at 2.3, level at half-time at 2.38, the draw at 4.5 and under 2.5 goals at 1.73. Colombia at 1.38 is too short.
Context
Colombia's long-serving captain and creative reference has left the national team, so this window is the first without him and the squad named for it is noticeably younger. It matters here because the Peru match is the last of three games in which the rebuilt attacking structure can be tested before competitive football resumes. Friendlies are openly experimental, so anything learned about the post-retirement shape stays provisional.
- James Rodríguez ended his Colombia international career in September 2026 after years as the team's captain and No.10.
- Colombia's 26-man squad for the Mexico, Paraguay and Peru friendlies was the first named after his departure.
- J. Rodríguez started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
A 1-0 home defeat by Paraguay on 2 October stopped a run of eight matches unbeaten for Colombia and left them with a single point from two friendlies in this window. It matters because the Peru game is the last fixture of the cycle, so it carries the difference between a rebuilding window with a win and one without. The caveat is that Colombia used the earlier games to blood younger and fringe players, so the streak's end reflects a deliberate transition as much as any drop in level.
- Paraguay beat Colombia 1-0 in Harrison, New Jersey, on 2 October 2026.
- The defeat ended an eight-match unbeaten run for Colombia.
- Colombia had drawn 1-1 with Mexico on 26 September 2026.
Peru have one point from three tour games, scoring twice and conceding seven against the United States, Mexico and Canada, and the sequence of poor results now runs to four matches. The Colombia friendly is the final fixture of the trip, so it is the last opportunity to leave North America with a performance to build on. The counterweight is that Mano Menezes has rotated heavily and even changed five players at half-time in Montreal, so the tour results reflect evaluation as much as the team's strongest available eleven.
- Canada beat Peru 2-0 in Montreal on 3 October 2026, with Jacob Shaffelburg scoring twice.
- Peru lost 1-4 to the United States and drew 1-1 with Mexico earlier in the same window.
- The winless run now stands at four matches.
Peru lose their first-choice full-back for the final game of the tour, with Sonne returning to Burnley a match early under a pre-agreed plan to limit him to two of four friendlies. That removes continuity from a defence that has conceded seven goals in three games and pushes Menezes toward a different option on that flank. Because the exit was planned rather than forced by injury, it carries little read-across for future squads, and the replacement's identity is still a projection.
- Oliver Sonne left the Peru squad and returned to Burnley before the Colombia friendly.
- The withdrawal followed a plan to use him in only two of the tour's four matches; he started and played 65 minutes against Canada.
- O. Sonne started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
Signal quality track record · Football
High Medium Low
Share of graded picks that landed, per signal quality.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 5
Corners Over/Undernot gradableUncertainty band: Lean
Under 7.5
2.30fair 1.72
Market 43.5% · BetBugs 58%
+14.5ppedge
Both teams' recent corner totals sit around or below the 7.5 line, making under 7.5 the more likely outcome.
First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean
Draw
2.38fair 1.92
Market 42% · BetBugs 52%
+10.0ppedge
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a level first half the most probable outcome.
Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip
Draw
4.50fair 3.57
Market 22.2% · BetBugs 28%
+5.8ppedge
Recent head-to-head results and Colombia's low-scoring home displays make a draw plausible.
Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean
Under 2.5
1.73fair 1.61
Market 57.8% · BetBugs 62%
+4.2ppedge
Both teams' recent competitive matches and head-to-head history point to a low-scoring game.
Other edges · 1
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean
No
1.48fair 1.56
BetBugs 64% · Market 67.6%
−3.6ppshort
Peru's scoreless competitive run and Colombia's clean-sheet record make both teams scoring unlikely.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Result5 of 5 landed
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Colombia's stronger competitive record and solid defensive home form give them the advantage, though current friendly results are mixed.
- Colombia are unbeaten in their last 5 competitive matches (4W 1D), averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Peru have no wins in their last 4 competitive matches (2D 2L) and scored 0 goals in that run.
- Colombia's home competitive split shows 2W 1D 0L with 3 clean sheets in 3 matches.
- Peru's current tour: 1-4 loss to USA, 1-1 draw with Mexico, 0-2 loss to Canada.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonColombiaEstimated chance52%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.38
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a level first half the most probable outcome.
- Peru's last 4 competitive matches all had 0 first-half goals for Peru.
- Colombia's home competitive matches averaged 0.33 first-half goals for and 0 against.
- Colombia's 0-0 draw with Portugal and 0-0 draw with Congo DR were level at half-time.
- Peru's 0-0 draw with Ecuador and 0-0 draw with Colombia were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance52%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Colombia's stronger second-half scoring and Peru's lack of second-half goals make Colombia the likely second-half winner.
- Colombia averaged 1.4 second-half goals in their last 5 competitive matches.
- Colombia's home competitive split shows 0.33 second-half goals for and 0 against.
- Peru averaged 0 second-half goals in their last 4 competitive matches.
- Peru's away competitive split shows 0 second-half goals scored and 1 conceded per game.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonColombiaEstimated chance44%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colombia's stronger competitive record and solid defensive home form give them the advantage, though current friendly results are mixed. Recent head-to-head results and Colombia's low-scoring home displays make a draw plausible.
- Colombia are unbeaten in their last 5 competitive matches (4W 1D), averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Peru have no wins in their last 4 competitive matches (2D 2L) and scored 0 goals in that run.
- The last two Colombia-Peru meetings both finished level (0-0 and 1-1).
- Colombia have drawn 1 of their last 5 competitive matches and 1 of their last 2 October friendlies.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonColombia or DrawEstimated chance80%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colombia's modest first-half scoring edge and Peru's lack of first-half goals make Colombia the most likely first-half winner. Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a level first half the most probable outcome.
- Colombia averaged 0.8 first-half goals in their last 5 competitive matches.
- Colombia's home competitive split shows 0.33 first-half goals for and 0 against.
- Peru's last 4 competitive matches all had 0 first-half goals for Peru.
- Colombia's home competitive matches averaged 0.33 first-half goals for and 0 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonColombia or DrawEstimated chance88%
Goals7 of 8 landed
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both teams' recent competitive matches and head-to-head history point to a low-scoring game.
- Colombia's last 5 competitive matches averaged 3.0 total goals, but their home competitive split averaged 0.67 total goals.
- Peru's last 4 competitive matches averaged 1.0 total goals, with 0 scored and 2 conceded.
- The last two Colombia-Peru meetings produced 0-0 and 1-1 scorelines.
- Colombia's October friendlies produced 1-1 and 0-1 scorelines.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Peru's scoreless competitive run and Colombia's clean-sheet record make both teams scoring unlikely.
- Peru scored 0 goals in their last 4 competitive matches.
- Colombia kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 competitive matches.
- Peru's away competitive split shows 0 goals scored in 2 matches.
- The last two Colombia-Peru meetings ended 0-0 and 1-1, with only one team scoring in the second.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance64%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Colombia have struggled to score heavily at home and in the current window, making under 1.5 team goals likely.
- Colombia scored 2 goals in 3 home competitive matches (0.67 per game).
- Colombia scored 1 goal in their 1-1 draw with Mexico and 0 in the 0-1 loss to Paraguay.
- Peru conceded 1 goal per game in their last 4 competitive matches.
- Colombia's home competitive split includes 3 clean sheets and only 2 goals scored.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostColombia under 1.5Estimated chance58%Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Peru's persistent scoring difficulties make it unlikely they score twice against Colombia.
- Peru scored 0 goals in their last 4 competitive matches.
- Peru scored 2 goals across their three current tour matches (one vs USA, one vs Mexico).
- Colombia kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 competitive matches.
- Peru's away competitive split: 0 goals scored in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonPeru under 1.5Estimated chance84%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Colombia's home clean-sheet record and Peru's scoreless competitive run support a home clean sheet.
- Colombia kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 competitive matches.
- Colombia kept clean sheets in all 3 home competitive matches.
- Peru scored 0 goals in their last 4 competitive matches.
- Peru's away competitive split shows 0 goals scored in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPeru not to scoreEstimated chance56%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Colombia's regular scoring in competitive matches and Peru's tour concessions make a Peru clean sheet unlikely.
- Colombia scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Colombia averaged 2.2 goals scored and 7.2 shots on target in those 5 matches.
- Peru conceded 7 goals across their three current tour matches.
- Peru's away competitive split shows 3 goals conceded in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonColombia to scoreEstimated chance68%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.80
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams make under 0.5 first-half goals the more likely outcome.
- Peru's last 4 competitive matches had 0 first-half goals for Peru.
- Colombia's home competitive matches averaged 0.33 first-half goals for and 0 against.
- Colombia's 0-0 draws with Portugal and Congo DR had no first-half goals.
- Peru's 0-0 draws with Ecuador and Colombia had no first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance54%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Colombia's second-half scoring and Peru's concession rate suggest a reasonable chance of two or more second-half goals.
- Colombia averaged 1.4 second-half goals for and 0.4 against in their last 5 competitive matches.
- Peru's last 4 competitive matches averaged 0.75 second-half goals against.
- Colombia's 6-3 win over Venezuela had 5 second-half goals.
- Peru's last 4 competitive matches scored 0 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance53%
Match stats0 of 1 landed
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams' recent corner totals sit around or below the 7.5 line, making under 7.5 the more likely outcome.
- Colombia's last 5 competitive matches averaged 6.6 total corners (3.8 for, 2.8 against).
- Peru's last 4 competitive matches averaged 7.0 total corners (3.25 for, 3.75 against).
- The June 2025 Colombia-Peru 0-0 had 6 total corners.
- Peru's away competitive split averaged 6.5 total corners (2.5 for, 4 against).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance58%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Colombia's high shot volume and Peru's tendency to allow shots make over 28.5 total shots slightly more likely.
- Colombia's home competitive matches averaged 30.6 total shots (21.3 for, 9.3 against).
- Peru's away competitive matches averaged 27.0 total shots (7.5 for, 19.5 against).
- Colombia averaged 18.4 shots per game in their last 5 competitive matches.
- Peru averaged 10 shots per game in their last 4 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 28.5Estimated chance52%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent shot-on-target totals for both teams are below 10.5, making under the more likely outcome.
- Colombia's last 5 competitive matches averaged 9.8 total shots on target (7.2 for, 2.6 against).
- Peru's last 4 competitive matches averaged 6.75 total shots on target (3 for, 3.75 against).
- The June 2025 Colombia-Peru 0-0 had 1 total shot on target.
- Colombia's home competitive matches averaged 8.67 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableUnder 10.5Estimated chance60%
The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees
Head-to-Head
1W · 2D · 2WD0-0ColombiavPeruWOR
D1-1PeruvColombiaWOR
L0-1ColombiavPeruWOR
W3-2ColombiavPeruCOP
L1-2ColombiavPeruCOP
Peru: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg
Recent Form
Colombia
W2-0JordanFRI
W3-1Costa RicaFRI
L1-3FranceFRI
L1-2CroatiaFRI
W3-0AustraliaFRI
W2-1New ZealandFRI
D0-0CanadaFRI
W4-0MexicoFRI
W6-3VenezuelaWOR
Peru
D2-2HondurasFRI
L0-2SenegalFRI
W2-0BoliviaFRI
L1-2ChileFRI
D1-1RussiaFRI
L1-2ChileFRI
L0-1ParaguayWOR
L0-3UruguayWOR
D0-0EcuadorWOR
D0-0ColombiaWOR
Squad & Injuries
Colombia
26 availableAttackers5
Midfielders10
Defenders8
Goalkeeper3
Peru
36 availableAttackers8
Midfielders12
Defenders11
Goalkeeper5