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Predictions graded

Mexico1Peru1

HT 0–1Wed 30 Sept 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 4–2On targetOn target 1–1CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 00:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Mexico's World Cup form — four wins in five, four clean sheets — meets a Peru side that has scored in only one of its last six competitive matches and lost 4-1 to the United States on 26 September.

Mexico are likelier to win, but heavy rotation in a neutral-venue friendly blunts that. Peru at 7.0 and Peru to win or draw at 2.75 are the two prices that offer anything; Mexico at 1.45 and under 2.5 goals at 1.62 ask for more than the evidence supports.

Context

Márquez's first match produced a 1-1 draw with Colombia, and Mexico are expected to change almost all of that starting eleven against Peru. With a large squad and no competitive stakes, the window is being used to look at the wider group, so the team in New Jersey may bear little resemblance to the side that faced Colombia. Projected line-ups this early can still miss the final selection, and starting-XI reporting for friendlies is the least reliable kind.
- Mexico are projected to make up to nine changes from the XI that drew 1-1 with Colombia on 26 September, leaving only two starters in place.
- The Peru match is the second fixture of Rafael Márquez's tenure as Mexico head coach.
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 00:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Peru opened their US tour with a 4-1 defeat by the United States in Orlando, conceding four times after taking an early lead. Menezes has framed this window as a rebuild that still has to deliver results, so his line-up and approach against a stronger Mexico side matter more than a typical friendly. That 4-1 came against a heavily rotated, youthful United States side, which limits how far it can be read as a settled measure of Peru's level.
- Peru were beaten 4-1 by the United States in Orlando on 26 September, having led through Gianluca Lapadula before the collapse.
- Menezes on the project: "Vamos a construir pero tenemos que presentar resultados."
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 00:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Carrillo sat out the United States game, robbing Peru of an experienced wide option in a heavy defeat. Menezes has left the door open to using him against Mexico provided he is fit, which would put a first-choice attacker back into a side still finding its shape. A player returning from injury may be handled carefully, so a start is not assured even though he is back in contention.
- Carrillo was absent for Peru's 4-1 defeat to the United States in Orlando.
- Menezes on Carrillo: "Si ya está en condiciones, lo vamos a poner."
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 00:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Mexico's recent edge rests on defence more than attack, and that five-match record was built at the World Cup before Rafael Márquez took charge.
For this friendly it suggests a low-conceding baseline, while Peru have scored in only one of their last six competitive matches, so a clean sheet at Mexico's end is the more plausible single outcome. The caveat is that Mexico are reported to be planning up to nine changes from the Colombia draw, so this defensive record belongs to a line-up that may barely feature in New Jersey.
- Mexico won four of five World Cup matches between 11 June and 6 July 2026, scoring 2.0 goals per game and conceding 0.6.
- Mexico kept four clean sheets across that five-match sample, with the 2-3 loss to England on 6 July 2026 the only game in which they conceded.
- Mexico's opponents averaged 2.2 shots on target per match across those five World Cup fixtures.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.53fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 65.4%

−3.4ppshort

Mexico's defensive record and Peru's shortage of goals make a clean sheet at one end the more probable outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mexico were far the stronger side in their last competitive run at both ends, while Peru have barely scored in competitive football this year.
- Mexico won 4 of 5 World Cup matches, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.6 per game with four clean sheets
- Peru have scored one goal across their last six competitive matches and none in their last three away
- Mexico drew 1-1 with Colombia on 26 September; Peru lost 4-1 to the United States on 26 September
- Mexico won the last meeting 1-0, a 2022 friendly at the Rose Bowl
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMexicoEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves in these fixtures are usually tight, and neither side has started quickly in recent matches.
- Mexico were level at half-time in three of their five World Cup matches
- Peru's six competitive matches produced 0.33 first-half goals for and 0.33 against per game
- Peru led at half-time only once in that competitive run (against Bolivia)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Peru rarely score after half-time, so many second halves will be level or decided by a single Mexico goal.
- Mexico's second-half goals were heavily concentrated in wins over Czechia and South Africa
- Peru's competitive matches produced 0.17 second-half goals for and 0.67 against per game
- Peru drew the second half 0-0 in four of their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mexico were far the stronger side in their last competitive run at both ends, while Peru have barely scored in competitive football this year. Friendly matches with heavy rotation often stay tight, and both squads are in transition with unsettled line-ups.
- Mexico won 4 of 5 World Cup matches, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.6 per game with four clean sheets
- Peru have scored one goal across their last six competitive matches and none in their last three away
- Mexico drew 1-1 with Colombia on 26 September in the current window
- Peru drew 0-0 with Ecuador and 0-0 with Colombia in their most recent competitive campaign
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMexico or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mexico's first-half scoring is modest but their defensive record suggests they are more likely to lead than trail at the break. First halves in these fixtures are usually tight, and neither side has started quickly in recent matches.
- Mexico averaged 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.4 against in five World Cup matches
- Mexico led at half-time in two of those five matches
- Mexico were level at half-time in three of their five World Cup matches
- Peru's six competitive matches produced 0.33 first-half goals for and 0.33 against per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonMexico or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Peru's attacking output has been minimal, which limits how many goals the match can produce even if Mexico score.
- Peru's six competitive matches averaged 1.5 total goals, with four of six finishing with one goal or none
- Peru scored once across those six matches
- Mexico conceded only 0.6 goals per game at the World Cup
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Mexico's defensive record and Peru's shortage of goals make a clean sheet at one end the more probable outcome.
- Mexico kept four clean sheets in five World Cup matches
- Peru failed to score in five of their last six competitive matches
- Mexico's opponents averaged only 2.2 shots on target per World Cup game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mexico have scored at least twice in most recent competitive games and face a defence that shipped four last time out.
- Mexico scored two or more in four of five World Cup matches
- Mexico averaged 2.0 goals and 14 shots per game in that run
- Peru conceded four goals to the United States on 26 September
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMexico over 1.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Peru's shot and goal numbers are low enough that keeping them under two goals is the strongly favoured side.
- Peru scored once in six competitive matches (0.5 goals per game)
- Their three competitive away games produced no goals at all
- Peru averaged 3.3 shots on target per competitive match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonPeru under 1.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mexico have been difficult to score against and Peru have created very little away from home.
- Mexico kept four clean sheets in five World Cup matches
- Mexico's opponents averaged 2.2 shots on target per game in that run
- Peru failed to score in their last three competitive away games
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostPeru not to scoreEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mexico's recent matches usually featured at least one goal before the break.
- Mexico's World Cup matches averaged 1.2 first-half goals in total
- Mexico scored in the first half in three of five World Cup matches
- Peru conceded twice before half-time against Bolivia and Uruguay
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Peru's low scoring and the stop-start nature of friendlies point to a quieter second period.
- Peru's six competitive matches averaged 0.83 second-half goals in total
- Peru's 0-0 draws with Ecuador and Colombia had no second-half goals
- Mexico's 1-0 wins over South Korea and 1-2 half against England show the range of outcomes
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Peru generate very few corners, which caps the total unless Mexico dominate heavily.
- Peru's competitive matches averaged 2.8 corners for and 3.8 against
- Peru's three competitive away games averaged 2.0 corners for and 4.0 against
- Mexico's World Cup matches averaged 3.6 corners conceded
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mexico's defensive numbers are strong and Peru's attacking output is small, keeping the combined total modest.
- Mexico allowed just 2.2 shots on target per World Cup match
- Peru's three competitive away games produced 1.67 shots on target for and 4.0 against
- Mexico averaged 4.2 shots on target per World Cup match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 7.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' competitive matches sit around three cards, so the line is close to the middle.
- Mexico's World Cup matches averaged 3.0 yellow cards in total
- Peru's competitive matches averaged 2.0 yellow cards for and 1.8 against
- Mexico's opponents averaged 2.2 yellows per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W1-0MexicovPeruSep 25, 2022FRI

1 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Mexico

D1-1ColombiaSep 27FRI

L2-3EnglandJul 6WOR

W2-0EcuadorJul 1WOR

W3-0CzechiaJun 25WOR

W1-0South KoreaJun 19WOR

W2-0South AfricaJun 11WOR

W5-1SerbiaJun 5FRI

W1-0AustraliaMay 31FRI

W2-0GhanaMay 23FRI

D1-1BelgiumApr 1FRI

D0-0PortugalMar 29FRI

W4-0IcelandFeb 26FRI

W1-0BoliviaJan 25FRI

W1-0PanamaJan 23FRI

L1-2ParaguayNov 19FRI

Peru

L1-4USASep 26FRI

L1-3SpainJun 9FRI

W2-1HaitiJun 6FRI

D2-2HondurasMar 31FRI

L0-2SenegalMar 28FRI

W2-0BoliviaDec 21FRI

L1-2ChileNov 18FRI

D1-1RussiaNov 12FRI

L1-2ChileOct 10FRI

L0-1ParaguaySep 9WOR

L0-3UruguaySep 4WOR

D0-0EcuadorJun 11WOR

D0-0ColombiaJun 6WOR

L0-1VenezuelaMar 26WOR

W3-1BoliviaMar 21WOR

Squad & Injuries

Mexico

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Peru

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Peru

Draw or Peru

No

Under 2.5

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 7 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Mexico

Peru

Squad & Injuries

Mexico

Peru