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Predictions graded

USA4Peru1

HT 1–1Sat 26 Sept 2026, 20:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 70%–30%ShotsShots 16–5On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 17:15 · Europe/Bucharest

USA open their post-World Cup rebuild against Peru with 13 uncapped players and no Pulisic, McKennie or the injured Pepi, while Peru have scored in just one of their last six competitive matches.

USA should have the better of it, but a friendly between two reshuffled squads is a fair setting for a low-scoring draw. The draw at 4.5 is the one reviewed price that offers anything; a USA win at 1.45 and over 2.5 goals at 1.73 do not.

Context

Pochettino's first squad since the World Cup carries 13 uncapped players, so the Peru friendly looks like a testing ground for a heavily changed group rather than a settled XI. Reporting says selection weighed current performance and opportunity, and the same list omits established regulars, which points towards evaluation and rotation. The camp's first gathering was in Atlanta on 20 September, leaving four days of work before Orlando. Pochettino has not named a starting team or said how many newcomers will play.
- Mauricio Pochettino selected a 28-man USA squad for friendlies against Peru, Chile, Mexico and Canada, with 13 uncapped players included (18 Sep).
- The squad began reporting to Atlanta on 20 September for a window that starts with Peru in Orlando on 26 September, described as the opening of the post-2026 World Cup cycle (17–21 Sep).
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 17:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Menezes is openly using this window to regenerate the squad, with Lapadula recalled and five newcomers called up while long-standing names such as Tapia, Cueva and Zambrano were overlooked. That makes the Peru XI in Orlando hard to predict from recent qualifiers and gives the friendlies a selection-experiment character. The coach has suggested the tour is aimed at building towards 2030 qualifying rather than producing a fixed line-up. No rotation plan has been published for the four matches.
- Menezes named a 26-man Peru squad for friendlies against the USA, Mexico, Canada and Colombia, recalling Gianluca Lapadula and introducing several first-time call-ups (18 Sep).
- Menezes explained Renato Tapia's omission by pointing to the renewal process and the call-up of Wilder Cartagena (22 Sep).
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 17:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Pulisic's absence removes the USA's most established attacking reference from a group already tilted towards uncapped and MLS-based players. It matters for this fixture because Pochettino's attacking options in Orlando are drawn almost entirely from that less experienced pool. The reports describe a fitness issue rather than a long-term absence, so it is unclear whether he returns for the later Chile, Mexico and Canada matches.
- Christian Pulisic was left out of the USA roster for the Peru, Chile, Mexico and Canada friendlies (17 Sep).
- Reporting described Pulisic and Weston McKennie as left out because they were not fully fit (17 Sep).
- C. Pulisic started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 17:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Pepi's withdrawal leaves Pochettino a recognised centre-forward short for the window that opens against Peru, with Damion Downs added from outside the original list. Downs has prior senior caps but has not been in camp from the start, so the pecking order for Orlando is unsettled. The reports describe an injury withdrawal without giving a recovery timetable.
- Ricardo Pepi was withdrawn from the USA squad through injury after PSV's 3-2 defeat to Twente (20 Sep).
- Pochettino added Damion Downs, 22, who is on loan at St. Louis City from Southampton and has previous senior USA appearances (20 Sep).
- R. Pepi started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 212 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 17:14 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 76.9%

−3.9ppshort

USA have found the net before half-time in every recent match, making at least one first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
USA have the stronger recent competitive record and the Orlando setting, while Peru have managed one goal in six matches.
- USA recent competitive five: 4-1 Paraguay, 2-0 Australia, 2-3 Türkiye, 2-0 Bosnia, 1-4 Belgium — 3 wins, 2.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
- Peru scored once in their last six competitive matches and average 0.43 goals across seven.
- Peru's away split in that spell: 0 goals scored, 1.25 conceded per game across four matches.
- USA squad includes 13 uncapped players and is without Pulisic, McKennie and the injured Pepi.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUSAEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.88
The read
USA score early and often in recent games, while Peru rarely lead at half-time.
- USA first-half goals for average 1.6, against 0.8, across five competitive matches.
- USA scored in the first half of all five recent matches (1, 1, 1, 2, 3).
- Peru first-half goals for average 0.29, against 0.29, across seven matches.
- Peru scored first-half goals in one of their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostUSAEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Peru fade after the break and concede late goals, which slightly favours USA across the second 45 minutes.
- USA second-half goals for average 0.6, against 0.8, across five competitive matches.
- USA scored second-half goals in three of their last five.
- Peru second-half goals for average 0.14, against 0.71, across seven matches.
- Peru conceded second-half goals in four of their last six.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonUSAEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
USA have the stronger recent competitive record and the Orlando setting, while Peru have managed one goal in six matches. A friendly between two rebuilt squads with unsettled line-ups is a plausible setting for a low-scoring stalemate.
- USA recent competitive five: 4-1 Paraguay, 2-0 Australia, 2-3 Türkiye, 2-0 Bosnia, 1-4 Belgium — 3 wins, 2.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
- Peru scored once in their last six competitive matches and average 0.43 goals across seven.
- The only meeting on record, a 2018 friendly in the USA, finished 1-1.
- USA's last five competitive matches produced no draws, but their scoring and conceding averages are both high.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUSA or DrawEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
USA score early and often in recent games, while Peru rarely lead at half-time. Peru's first halves are usually goalless, so a level opening period is a realistic outcome.
- USA first-half goals for average 1.6, against 0.8, across five competitive matches.
- USA scored in the first half of all five recent matches (1, 1, 1, 2, 3).
- Peru conceded first-half goals in only two of their last six matches.
- USA were level or trailing at half-time in two of their last five.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonUSA or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
USA's recent matches have been high-scoring on both sides, though Peru's contribution to the total is the main doubt.
- USA's last five competitive matches produced 19 goals in total (5, 2, 5, 2, 5).
- USA average 2.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per competitive match.
- Peru's six recent competitive matches produced nine goals, five of them in one game against Bolivia.
- Peru's last three matches totalled one, three and zero goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Peru's scoring output is the weakest part of either team's record, which makes one clean sheet the more likely outcome.
- Peru scored once in their last six competitive matches (1 of 6).
- USA kept clean sheets in two of their last five.
- Peru failed to score in all four of their away-split matches.
- USA scored in all five of their last five competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
USA have reached two goals in four of their last five, and Peru concede regularly away from home.
- USA scored 2, 2, 2, 2 and 1 in their last five competitive matches.
- USA average 2.2 goals per competitive match.
- Peru conceded 1.25 goals per game in their four-match away split.
- Peru kept clean sheets in two of seven competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonUSA over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
USA have found the net before half-time in every recent match, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- USA scored first-half goals in all five of their recent competitive matches.
- USA first-half goals-for average is 1.6 per match.
- Peru conceded first-half goals in two of their last six matches.
- Peru's only first-half goals in that spell came in the 3-1 win over Bolivia.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team scores much after the break, so the second half is more likely to stay below two goals.
- Peru's last six matches produced five second-half goals in total.
- USA second-half goals-for average is 0.6 per match.
- Peru second-half goals-for average is 0.14 per match.
- Four of Peru's last six matches had one or no second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
USA should generate most of the corners against a Peru side that defends deep and concedes territory.
- USA average 5.2 corners with 3.0 conceded per competitive match.
- Peru average 2.6 corners with 3.6 conceded.
- Peru's four-match away split: 1.75 corners for, 3.5 against.
- USA's home split: 4.25 corners for, 3.25 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shot rates sit around the line, with USA's home matches slightly below it.
- USA's home split totals 20 shots per match.
- USA average 11.8 shots with 9.6 conceded overall, 21.4 combined.
- Peru's away split totals 22.25 shots per match.
- Friendly matches are often played at a lower intensity than qualifiers.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 21.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Peru rarely work the goalkeeper and their away matches have stayed below this line.
- Peru's away split produced 5 shots on target combined per match.
- Peru average 2.86 shots on target with 4.0 conceded.
- USA's home split produced 6.25 shots on target combined.
- USA average 3.8 shots on target with 3.2 conceded.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 6.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
An early-window friendly between two experimental squads is less likely to be a physical, card-heavy contest.
- USA's home split totals 4.0 cards per match, which includes a red card in one game.
- Peru average 2.17 yellow cards per competitive match.
- Peru's away split totals 3.75 cards per match.
- Both squads are in a rebuilding window with many new caps.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 0W

D1-1USAvPeruOct 17, 2018FRI

2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

USA

L1-4BelgiumJul 7WOR

W2-0Bosnia & HerzegovinaJul 2WOR

L2-3TürkiyeJun 26WOR

W2-0AustraliaJun 19WOR

W4-1ParaguayJun 13WOR

L1-2GermanyJun 6FRI

W3-2SenegalMay 31FRI

L0-2PortugalMar 31FRI

L2-5BelgiumMar 28FRI

W5-1UruguayNov 19FRI

W2-1ParaguayNov 15FRI

W2-1AustraliaOct 15FRI

D1-1EcuadorOct 11FRI

W2-0JapanSep 9FRI

L0-2South KoreaSep 6FRI

Peru

L1-3SpainJun 9FRI

W2-1HaitiJun 6FRI

D2-2HondurasMar 31FRI

L0-2SenegalMar 28FRI

W2-0BoliviaDec 21FRI

L1-2ChileNov 18FRI

D1-1RussiaNov 12FRI

L1-2ChileOct 10FRI

L0-1ParaguaySep 9WOR

L0-3UruguaySep 4WOR

D0-0EcuadorJun 11WOR

D0-0ColombiaJun 6WOR

L0-1VenezuelaMar 26WOR

W3-1BoliviaMar 21WOR

L0-1ArgentinaNov 20WOR

Squad & Injuries

USA

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Peru

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

USA

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

USA

Peru

Squad & Injuries

USA

Peru