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Predictions graded

Guyana8Dominica1

HT 4–0Sun 4 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions14–288%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 65%–35%ShotsShots 29–7On targetOn target 12–3CornersCorners 4–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 05:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Guyana host Dominica three days after a 5-1 win in Dominica, and another home victory is the likeliest result.

Guyana to win is 1.11, shorter than the form warrants, and Over 2.5 goals at 1.25 is also tighter than the evidence supports. The prices with room are Dominica to draw or win at 6.5 and the draw at 9.

Context

Guyana scored five in Dominica on 1 October, their largest return of the group, and now host the same opponent three days later. The compressed turnaround leaves little room for either side to change personnel or approach, and Dominica have already spent a full match against Guyana's 4-2-3-1 and its dead-ball routines. The five-goal margin is the loudest evidence for a repeat, but a one-off scoreline exaggerates quality gaps, and Dominica's 5-3-2 that day could be reshaped for the return.
- Guyana won 5-1 in Dominica on 1 October 2026 in the CONCACAF Nations League group.
- Osaze De Rosario (27'), Omari Glasgow (41'), Deon Moore (50'), Kelsey Benjamin (79') and Enoch George (90') scored for Guyana; T. Jules (75') scored for Dominica.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 05:12 · Europe/BucharestGuyana Chronicleguyanachronicle.com · 3 Oct 2026
Guyana have taken maximum points from three matches and conceded once, so the return with winless Dominica is a chance to extend a lead rather than a fixture they have to survive. The group doubles as the qualifying route to the 2027 Gold Cup, which raises the value of points across a short campaign. Three matches against opponents of very different quality is a small sample, and the eight-goal return reflects the weakest opponent more than how Guyana handle the stronger teams still to come.
- Guyana have won 1-0 away to Puerto Rico, 2-0 at home to Cayman Islands and 5-1 away to Dominica.
- The 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League also serves as the qualification pathway for the 2027 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 05:12 · Europe/Bucharest
De Rosario has scored in each of Guyana's last three internationals and opened the scoring in Dominica, making him the focal point of the attack for the return. It is also his final match of the window before he rejoins Sønderjyske, so Guyana are unlikely to manage his minutes around another fixture. Three goals in three matches is a thin base for expecting a fourth, and a side defending deep can deny the space he found in the first meeting.
- De Rosario opened the scoring in Guyana's 1 October 5-1 win at Dominica, his third goal in three international appearances in the window.
- His Danish club, Sønderjyske, lists one more Guyana match, at home to Dominica, before he returns to Denmark.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 05:12 · Europe/Bucharest
Dominica have one point and one goal from three games, with the 5-1 defeat the heaviest result of the three. They used a five-man defence in Dominica and still conceded five, so the question for the return is whether they keep that shape or change it. The scoreline points to a clear quality gap, yet Dominica have already held a clean sheet by drawing 0-0 with Cayman Islands, so a repeat rout is not automatic.
- Dominica drew 0-0 with Cayman Islands, lost 0-2 to Puerto Rico and lost 1-5 to Guyana in their first three group matches.
- Their only group goal came from T. Jules in the 75th minute against Guyana, and they lined up 5-3-2 in that match.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 05:12 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guyana's much stronger recent record, home advantage and back-to-back wins over Dominica make them clear favourites.
- Guyana have won 11 of 15 competitive matches, including all three group games, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- At home Guyana have 7 wins from 8, averaging 2.63 goals scored and 1.25 conceded.
- Dominica are winless in five away matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses) with 0.4 goals scored per away game.
- Guyana won 5-1 in Dominica on 1 October and 2-0 in the previous meeting in March.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGuyanaEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Guyana's fast home starts and Dominica's scoreless first halves away make a Guyana half-time lead likely.
- Guyana average 1.88 first-half goals at home and concede 0.5.
- Dominica average 0.0 first-half goals away and concede 1.6.
- Guyana led 2-0 at half-time in the 1 October win at Dominica.
- Dominica have not scored a first-half away goal in their last five away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonGuyanaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guyana remain the stronger side after half-time, but second halves are often more balanced.
- Guyana average 0.75 second-half goals at home and concede 0.75.
- Dominica average 0.4 second-half goals away and concede 0.4.
- Guyana scored three second-half goals in the 5-1 win.
- Guyana have won 7 of 8 home matches overall.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonGuyanaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guyana's much stronger recent record, home advantage and back-to-back wins over Dominica make them clear favourites. A draw is possible if Dominica defend stubbornly and Guyana are wasteful, but Guyana's no-draw run and dominance make it less likely.
- Guyana have won 11 of 15 competitive matches, including all three group games, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- At home Guyana have 7 wins from 8, averaging 2.63 goals scored and 1.25 conceded.
- Dominica have drawn 3 of 12 competitive matches, including two 0-0 draws in their last five.
- Guyana have not drawn any of their last 15 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGuyana or DrawEstimated chance94%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guyana's fast home starts and Dominica's scoreless first halves away make a Guyana half-time lead likely. A draw at half-time is possible if Dominica defend deep and Guyana start slowly.
- Guyana average 1.88 first-half goals at home and concede 0.5.
- Dominica average 0.0 first-half goals away and concede 1.6.
- Dominica have drawn the first half in several recent matches, including two 0-0 away games.
- Guyana drew the first half 0-0 away to Puerto Rico on 24 September.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGuyana or DrawEstimated chance91%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Guyana's strong attack and Dominica's weak defence point to at least three total goals.
- Guyana average 2.4 goals scored per competitive match and 2.63 at home.
- Dominica average 2.33 goals conceded per competitive match and 2.0 away.
- The last meeting produced six goals.
- Four of Guyana's last six matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Dominica's low away scoring output makes it likely they will not score, even if Guyana concede occasionally.
- Dominica have scored only 0.4 goals per away match and failed to score in three of their last five away games.
- Guyana have kept clean sheets in 4 of 15 competitive matches and 3 of 8 at home.
- Dominica scored just once in the 5-1 defeat to Guyana.
- Guyana's home opponents have scored 1.25 goals per match on average.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guyana's home scoring rate and Dominica's away concessions make two or more Guyana goals likely.
- Guyana have scored in all 8 home matches and average 2.63 goals at home.
- Guyana scored 2 or more in 6 of their last 8 home matches.
- Dominica concede 2.0 goals per away match.
- Guyana scored 2 and 5 in the last two meetings with Dominica.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGuyana over 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dominica's away scoring record is very low, making two or more goals for them unlikely.
- Dominica average 0.4 goals scored per away match.
- Dominica have scored one goal in their three Nations League group matches.
- Guyana have kept clean sheets in 3 of 8 home matches.
- Dominica failed to score in three of their last five away matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDominica under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Guyana's first-half scoring at home makes at least one first-half goal very likely.
- Guyana average 1.88 first-half goals at home.
- Dominica average 1.6 first-half goals conceded away.
- Guyana scored twice in the first half of the 5-1 win.
- Dominica have conceded at least one first-half goal in four of their last five away matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
Dominica's lack of first-half away goals makes both teams scoring before half-time very unlikely.
- Dominica average 0.0 first-half goals away.
- Guyana concede 0.5 first-half goals at home.
- Dominica have not scored in the first half of any of their last five away matches.
- Guyana kept a first-half clean sheet in the 1 October win.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are possible, especially if Guyana push for more after half-time.
- Guyana's home second halves average 1.5 total goals.
- Dominica's away second halves average 0.8 total goals.
- The last meeting produced four second-half goals.
- Guyana scored three second-half goals in that match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guyana's home corner dominance and Dominica's away concession rate make over 9.5 corners possible.
- Guyana average 7.25 corners at home and concede 2.25.
- Dominica concede 7.5 corners away and take 4.75.
- The last meeting had only four corners.
- Guyana had 11 corners at home to Cayman Islands.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced around 28-29 total shots, pointing to over 25.5.
- Guyana's home matches average 28.75 total shots.
- Dominica's away matches average 29.0 total shots.
- The last meeting had 28 total shots.
- Guyana took 20 shots at home to Cayman Islands.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 25.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent shot-on-target totals for both sides sit above 9.5, making over 9.5 likely.
- Guyana's home matches average 11.5 shots on target total.
- Dominica's away matches average 10.5 shots on target total.
- The last meeting had 11 shots on target.
- Guyana had 8 shots on target in the 5-1 win.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card totals are mixed, but the last meeting and Guyana's home average suggest under 3.5 is slightly more likely.
- Guyana's home matches average 2.25 total cards.
- Dominica's away matches average 3.75 total cards.
- The last meeting had three cards.
- Guyana received no cards in the last meeting.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.11 price requires 90.1%, above our 80.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 0W

W1-5DominicavGuyanaOct 1, 2026CON

W2-0GuyanavDominicaMar 27, 2026CON

D0-0DominicavGuyanaSep 3, 2014CAR

Guyana unbeaten in 3 meetingsGuyana: 2 clean sheets2.7 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Guyana

W5-1DominicaOct 1CON

W2-0Cayman IslandsSep 27CON

W1-0Puerto RicoSep 24CON

W3-1BelizeMar 30CON

W2-0DominicaMar 27CON

W4-1Antigua and BarbudaNov 18CON

W2-1BonaireNov 15CON

W3-0MontserratJun 11WOR

L0-1NicaraguaJun 7WOR

L0-2GuatemalaMar 26CON

W3-2GuatemalaMar 22CON

W5-3BarbadosNov 19CON

W4-1BarbadosNov 15CON

L1-5SurinameOct 16CON

L1-3GuatemalaOct 12CON

Dominica

L1-5GuyanaOct 1CON

L0-2Puerto RicoSep 28CON

D0-0Cayman IslandsSep 25CON

W1-0AnguillaSep 21FRI

D0-0Sint MaartenMar 30CON

L0-2GuyanaMar 27CON

L2-3Sint MaartenNov 15CON

L1-2Saint MartinNov 12CON

L0-5Dominican RepublicJun 10WOR

W3-0British Virgin IslandsJun 4WOR

D0-0BarbadosMay 11FRI

D0-0BarbadosMay 8FRI

D0-0Antigua and BarbudaNov 19CON

L1-6Dominican RepublicNov 16CON

L2-3BermudaOct 16CON

Squad & Injuries

Guyana

21 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Dominica

20 available

Attackers5

Midfielders6

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Dominica

Draw

No

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Guyana

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 7 landed

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Markets to Avoid

Guyana

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Guyana

Dominica

Squad & Injuries

Guyana

Dominica