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Predictions graded

Dominica1Guyana5

HT 0–2Thu 1 Oct 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions13–381%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 11–16On targetOn target 3–8CornersCorners 2–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 20:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Guyana lead Group A with six points and Dominica are still chasing a first win, so Round 3 puts the group's leader against a side with one point from two matches.

Guyana are the likelier winners, but the 1.25 price asks too much. The half-time draw at 2.7 is the one quoted price that offers anything; over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.25 and over 2.5 goals at 1.62 are too short, and 'no' on both teams to score at 1.57 gives no clear advantage.

Context

Both of Group A's 1 October matches are set for the Estadio Centroamericano de Mayagüez, so this Round 3 game is played in Puerto Rico rather than at Dominica's Windsor Park base in Roseau, where the island played its earlier fixtures this window. That moves the nominal host off its usual pitch and crowd and puts both squads on comparable travel footing for the match. It is a staging detail rather than a form signal, and since both teams play at the same ground the conditions apply equally.
- The 1 October League B Group A fixture between Dominica and Guyana is listed for the Estadio Centroamericano de Mayagüez in Puerto Rico.
- The Cayman Islands-Puerto Rico group match on the same day is also set for the Estadio Centroamericano de Mayagüez.
- Dominica's other fixtures in this window, the 21 September friendly with Anguilla and the 27 September group game against Puerto Rico, were played at Windsor Park in Roseau.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 20:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Guyana's 1-0 win in Puerto Rico and 2-0 win over the Cayman Islands put them on six points at the top of Group A, while Dominica have one point from a 0-0 draw and a 0-2 home defeat. Round 3 is the first meeting between the two in the group, which makes it Guyana's chance to protect the lead and Dominica's to climb off the bottom. The four group matches so far have produced five goals in total, so the points at stake point to a tight game rather than an open one.
- Guyana opened the group with a 1-0 win in Puerto Rico and a 2-0 win over the Cayman Islands.
- Dominica drew 0-0 with the Cayman Islands and lost 0-2 at home to Puerto Rico.
- Guyana lead League B Group A on six points from two games; Dominica have one point from two.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 20:17 · Europe/Bucharest
Guyana, the group leaders, have been scoring early and dominating territory in this window.
Both Guyana goals in that match arrived before the break, and they finished with five shots on target to the Cayman Islands' two. Dominica conceded 2.42 goals per game across 12 competitive matches and shipped two first-half goals at home to Puerto Rico on 28 September, so the opening 45 minutes carry real weight here. One match of heavy territory is a pattern rather than a guarantee, and Dominica did hold the Cayman Islands to a goalless draw three days earlier.
- Guyana beat the Cayman Islands 2-0 at home in League B Group A on 27 September 2026, leading 2-0 at half-time.
- Guyana took 20 shots to six and 11 corners to one in that single match, with five shots on target to two.
The sides last met in a friendly on 27 March 2026, when Guyana won 2-0, part of the run that has carried into this group with wins over Puerto Rico and the Cayman Islands. That gives Guyana recent familiarity with Dominica's setup and a settled feel going into Round 3. A friendly from five months earlier is thin evidence on its own, and nothing about that result fixes how a competitive group game between them will go.
- Guyana won the most recent meeting with Dominica 2-0, a friendly on 27 March 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 20:17 · Europe/BucharestLive coverage of the 27 March 2026 friendly between the sideswww.bbc.co.uk · 27 Mar 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 80%

−4.0ppshort

Guyana have been scoring before half-time in almost every recent match, and Dominica concede early often.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Guyana

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

−10.0ppshort

Guyana have won six in a row and already beat Dominica this year, while Dominica have one win in twelve and have gone quiet in front of goal.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

−6.7ppshort

Guyana's scoring rate plus Dominica's heavy concession rate points to three goals or more.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Guyana have won six in a row and already beat Dominica this year, while Dominica have one win in twelve and have gone quiet in front of goal.
- Guyana: 10 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses in 15 competitive matches, 2.2 goals per game
- Six straight wins, including 1-0 away at Puerto Rico in this group
- Dominica have 1 win in 12 competitive matches with 0.83 goals per game
- Guyana won the most recent meeting 2-0 in March 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGuyanaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guyana have been fast starters in this window and Dominica concede regularly before the break.
- Guyana average 1.4 first-half goals per game, 1.875 in their home matches
- Dominica concede 1.33 first-half goals per game
- Guyana scored in the first half in five of their last six
- Both goals in Guyana's 2-0 win over Dominica came in the first half
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonGuyanaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dominica's only route to points has been low-scoring stalemates, but Guyana's record contains very few draws. Guyana have won six in a row and already beat Dominica this year, while Dominica have one win in twelve and have gone quiet in front of goal.
- Dominica have drawn 3 of their 12 competitive matches
- Two of Dominica's last six finished 0-0
- Guyana: 10 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses in 15 competitive matches, 2.2 goals per game
- Six straight wins, including 1-0 away at Puerto Rico in this group
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or GuyanaEstimated chance89%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dominica's low first-half output means either Guyana lead or the teams reach the break level. Guyana have been fast starters in this window and Dominica concede regularly before the break.
- Dominica were level at half-time in three of their last six matches
- Dominica average 0.33 first-half goals
- Guyana average 1.4 first-half goals per game, 1.875 in their home matches
- Dominica concede 1.33 first-half goals per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or GuyanaEstimated chance88%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Guyana's scoring rate plus Dominica's heavy concession rate points to three goals or more.
- Guyana average 2.2 scored and 1.47 conceded per game
- Dominica concede 2.42 goals per game
- Guyana's last six matches produced 17 goals
- Dominica have scored in 6 of 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
One side failing to score is the likelier outcome because Dominica's attack has produced very little.
- Dominica have scored 10 goals in 12 competitive matches
- Dominica were shut out in four of their last six
- Guyana have four clean sheets in 15 matches
- Guyana scored in 13 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dominica's scoring output rarely reaches two goals in a match, so under 1.5 is the strong side.
- Dominica average 0.83 goals per game
- Dominica failed to score in four of their last six
- Dominica's home split shows 5 goals in 7 matches
- Guyana conceded 1.47 per game overall
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonDominica under 1.5Estimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Guyana have regularly scored twice in recent matches, and Dominica concede two or more often.
- Guyana scored two or more in five of their last six matches
- Guyana average 2.2 goals per game from 15 competitive matches
- Dominica conceded two or more in four of their last six
- Guyana's away split shows 1.71 goals per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGuyana over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guyana have scored in almost every match this window, and Dominica concede heavily.
- Guyana scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches
- Guyana scored in every one of their last six matches
- Dominica concede 2.42 goals per game
- Guyana average 2.2 goals per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGuyana to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dominica score in roughly half their matches and Guyana concede reasonably often.
- Dominica scored in 6 of 12 competitive matches
- Dominica have 10 goals across those matches
- Guyana conceded in 9 of their 15 matches
- Guyana's away split shows 1.71 conceded per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDominica to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Guyana have been scoring before half-time in almost every recent match, and Dominica concede early often.
- Guyana scored in the first half in five of their last six matches
- Guyana average 1.4 first-half goals per game
- Dominica concede 1.33 first-half goals per game
- Dominica average 0.33 first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores heavily after the break, with Guyana's goals concentrated in the first half.
- Guyana's last six matches produced two second-half goals or fewer in four of them
- Dominica's average second-half goals for and against total 1.58
- Guyana average 0.8 second-half goals
- Dominica average 0.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dominica's recent matches have been corner-heavy and Guyana's last game had plenty, so a double-figure total is plausible.
- Dominica's last two matches produced 11 and 16 corners
- Guyana's last match produced 12 corners
- Dominica concede 7.4 corners per game
- Guyana concede only 2.9 corners per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches regularly produce mid-to-high twenties for total shots.
- Dominica's matches average 9.5 shots for and 20.6 against
- Guyana average 14.7 shots and concede 13.2
- Dominica's last two matches produced 29 and 25 shots
- Guyana's last two matches produced 26 and 21 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guyana should generate most of the on-target work against a defence conceding eight shots on target per game.
- Dominica's opponents average 8 shots on target per game
- Guyana average 5.9 shots on target and concede 4.7
- Dominica average 3 shots on target per game
- Guyana's 1-0 win at Puerto Rico produced four shots on target in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages of both teams sit just under five, favouring the lower side of the line.
- Dominica's matches average 3.9 yellow cards in total
- Guyana's matches average 4.0 yellow cards in total
- Guyana picked up one yellow card in their last match
- Neither side has a recent red card in the last four tracked games
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

L2-0GuyanavDominicaMar 27, 2026CON

D0-0DominicavGuyanaSep 3, 2014CAR

Guyana: 2 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Dominica

L0-2Puerto RicoSep 28CON

D0-0Cayman IslandsSep 25CON

W1-0AnguillaSep 21FRI

D0-0Sint MaartenMar 30CON

L0-2GuyanaMar 27CON

L2-3Sint MaartenNov 15CON

L1-2Saint MartinNov 12CON

L0-5Dominican RepublicJun 10WOR

W3-0British Virgin IslandsJun 4WOR

D0-0BarbadosMay 11FRI

D0-0BarbadosMay 8FRI

D0-0Antigua and BarbudaNov 19CON

L1-6Dominican RepublicNov 16CON

L2-3BermudaOct 16CON

L1-6BermudaOct 12CON

Guyana

W2-0Cayman IslandsSep 27CON

W1-0Puerto RicoSep 24CON

W3-1BelizeMar 30CON

W2-0DominicaMar 27CON

W4-1Antigua and BarbudaNov 18CON

W2-1BonaireNov 15CON

W3-0MontserratJun 11WOR

L0-1NicaraguaJun 7WOR

L0-2GuatemalaMar 26CON

W3-2GuatemalaMar 22CON

W5-3BarbadosNov 19CON

W4-1BarbadosNov 15CON

L1-5SurinameOct 16CON

L1-3GuatemalaOct 12CON

D2-2MartiniqueSep 9CON

Squad & Injuries

Dominica

20 available

Attackers5

Midfielders6

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Guyana

21 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Guyana

Over 2.5

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals6 of 8 landed

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Dominica

Guyana

Squad & Injuries

Dominica

Guyana