FriendliesUpcoming

DominicaAnguilla

Mon 21 Sept 2026, 15:0021 Sept, 15:00

15Probabilities2Priced2Edges88%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 15:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Dominica host Anguilla at Windsor Park as the stronger side and unbeaten in the last three meetings, but their home form is poor: two wins, one draw and five defeats in eight, conceding 2.63 a game.

Dominica should win, though a clean sheet looks unlikely. The two prices reviewed offer nothing — 1.22 for a Dominica win asks too much, and 1.18 for at least one first-half goal is no better.

Context

Anguilla's coaching change six days before kick-off and their match-day squad announcement leave selection unsettled, and their away record of two wins in seven reflects a squad that gathers rarely. Dominica's own home form — two wins, one draw and five defeats in eight matches since June 2024 — makes the fixture less one-sided than the host's overall edge suggests.

Anguilla announced Ewan Gunter as Senior Men's National Team Head Coach and U17 Pathway Manager on 15 September, six days before this friendly, and he has fronted the squad's visible build-up since. Naming a head coach this close to a match can leave the first-choice eleven and shape still being settled, which is why it bears on how Anguilla set up in Dominica. The association's own framing softens the read: Gunter has worked with the AFA since November 2024 inside a FIFA talent development scheme, so he is not arriving cold to this group. No selection detail has been published, so the effect on the team is plausible rather than demonstrated.
- The Anguilla Football Association announced Ewan Gunter as Senior Men's National Team Head Coach and U17 Pathway Manager on 15 September 2026.
- The association says Gunter has worked closely with it since November 2024 inside a FIFA talent development scheme in Anguilla.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 14:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Dominica are listed in Nations League B alongside Guyana, Puerto Rico and the Cayman Islands, with Cayman Islands v Dominica and Dominica v Puerto Rico given as their September matches. Puerto Rico's own call-up notice names Dominica among their upcoming opponents, placing the two in the same window. If that holds, this friendly is Dominica's final warm-up before competitive football resumes on 25 September. The group detail comes from a preview account and a club announcement rather than the competition itself, so the exact fixture order should be read as reported.
- A Nations League B September/October preview lists Dominica with Guyana, Puerto Rico and the Cayman Islands, with Cayman Islands v Dominica and Dominica v Puerto Rico in the September window.
- A Puerto Rico squad call-up notice names Dominica among their upcoming Nations League opponents.
ReportedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 14:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Anguilla confirmed their senior squad and officials on the morning of the fixture, and the same post says the group arrives after a 3-2 win over Junior Stars FC in St. Maarten over the weekend. For an association that gathers rarely, recent minutes together can shape how quickly the staff settle combinations in this match. The warm-up win came against club rather than international opposition, so the score itself says little about the level Anguilla will meet. The announcement names no injuries or withdrawals, leaving the match-day selection open.
- Anguilla published their senior men's squad and officials on 21 September 2026 as preparations continued for the Nations League campaign.
- The same announcement says the Dominica friendly follows a 3-2 win over Junior Stars FC in St. Maarten over the weekend.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 14:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Dominica's edge in this fixture is real but narrow — the two most recent meetings produced no winner — so a tight, low-scoring game is plausible even though Dominica look the stronger side. The 0-0 came in Anguilla on 2 June 2022 and the 1-1 three days later was played in Dominica, so the venue has not separated them recently. Dominica's only win in the sequence was the 3-0 in 2021, before either of the drawn games.
- Dominica 1-1 Anguilla, CONCACAF Nations League, 5 June 2022.
- Anguilla 0-0 Dominica, CONCACAF Nations League, 2 June 2022.
- Dominica are unbeaten across these three recorded meetings: one win and two draws.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.18fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 84.7%

−14.7ppshort

Anguilla have seen at least one first-half goal in each of their last six matches.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Dominica

1.22fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 82%

−32.0ppshort

Dominica have home advantage, a better result against a common opponent and are unbeaten in the head-to-head.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.22
The read
Dominica have home advantage, a better result against a common opponent and are unbeaten in the head-to-head.
- Dominica home record: 2W 1D 5L in 8, 1.50 goals scored and 2.63 conceded per match.
- Anguilla away record: 2W 0D 5L in 7, 0.86 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per match.
- Head-to-head: Dominica won 3-0 in 2021 and drew 1-1 and 0-0 in 2022.
- Dominica beat British Virgin Islands 3-0; Anguilla lost 0-4 to the same opponent.
BetBugs · Match WinnerDominicaMarket price1.22Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Anguilla concede more before half-time and Dominica have the better first-half scoring rate.
- Dominica home first-half goals scored: 0.50 per match; conceded: 1.00.
- Anguilla away first-half goals scored: 0.29; conceded: 1.43.
- Dominica scored in the first half in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Anguilla conceded 2 or more first-half goals in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDominicaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dominica score more after half-time at home and Anguilla concede in second halves.
- Dominica home second-half goals scored: 1.00; conceded: 1.63.
- Anguilla away second-half goals scored: 0.57; conceded: 1.29.
- Dominica scored after half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Anguilla conceded after half-time in 5 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDominicaEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dominica have home advantage, a better result against a common opponent and are unbeaten in the head-to-head. The teams have been closely matched in past meetings and both can struggle to turn chances into goals.
- Dominica home record: 2W 1D 5L in 8, 1.50 goals scored and 2.63 conceded per match.
- Anguilla away record: 2W 0D 5L in 7, 0.86 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per match.
- Two of the three head-to-head meetings ended level, including a 1-1 in 2022.
- Dominica have drawn 2 of 13 competitive matches in the source window.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDominica or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Anguilla concede more before half-time and Dominica have the better first-half scoring rate. Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and Dominica have often been level at the break.
- Dominica home first-half goals scored: 0.50 per match; conceded: 1.00.
- Anguilla away first-half goals scored: 0.29; conceded: 1.43.
- Dominica first-half goals for average 0.50 and against 1.00 at home.
- Anguilla first-half goals for average 0.22 and against 1.33 overall.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDominica or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals7 outcomes · top 85%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede regularly and their recent matches have produced plenty of goals.
- Dominica's last six matches averaged 3.0 total goals.
- Anguilla's last six matches averaged 4.0 total goals.
- Dominica home matches average 1.50 scored and 2.63 conceded.
- Anguilla away matches average 0.86 scored and 2.71 conceded.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Anguilla's attack is limited and they have been blanked in most recent games.
- Anguilla scored in only 3 of 9 competitive matches.
- Anguilla were shut out in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Dominica kept 2 clean sheets in 8 home matches.
- Anguilla average 0.86 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Anguilla concede heavily away and Dominica have scored multiple goals in some home games.
- Dominica average 1.50 goals per home match.
- Anguilla concede 2.71 goals per away match.
- Dominica scored 3 against British Virgin Islands and 2 against Sint Maarten in recent home matches.
- Anguilla kept 0 clean sheets in 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalDominica over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dominica concede often at home and Anguilla have shown they can score in wins.
- Dominica kept only 2 clean sheets in 8 home matches.
- Anguilla scored 2 goals or more in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Dominica home matches average 2.63 goals conceded.
- Anguilla scored 3 against Bahamas in March 2026.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreAnguilla to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Anguilla's away defense has not recorded a clean sheet and Dominica usually score at home.
- Anguilla kept 0 clean sheets in 7 away matches.
- Dominica scored in 7 of 8 home matches.
- Dominica average 1.50 goals per home match.
- Anguilla concede 2.71 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreDominica to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Anguilla have seen at least one first-half goal in each of their last six matches.
- Anguilla's last six matches all had at least one first-half goal.
- Dominica's last six matches had at least one first-half goal in 4 of 6.
- Anguilla concede 1.43 first-half goals per away match.
- Dominica concede 1.00 first-half goal per home match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.18Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Anguilla's recent matches have produced second-half goals and both teams concede after half-time.
- Anguilla's last six matches had over 1.5 second-half goals in 4 of 6.
- Dominica's last six matches had over 1.5 second-half goals in 2 of 6.
- Dominica home second-half goals conceded: 1.63 per match.
- Anguilla away second-half goals conceded: 1.29 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 88%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches feature high opponent corner counts, pointing to a busy corner match.
- Dominica home matches average 1.8 corners for and 8.4 against, a total of 10.2.
- Anguilla away matches average 3.7 corners for and 5.0 against.
- Anguilla overall matches average 2.2 corners for and 7.6 against, a total of 9.8.
- Dominica overall matches average 1.9 corners for and 8.1 against, a total of 10.0.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 4.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average well over 20 total shots, so the total should be high.
- Dominica home matches average 9.4 shots for and 21.0 against, a total of 30.4.
- Anguilla overall matches average 5.6 shots for and 22.2 against, a total of 27.8.
- Anguilla away matches average 8.7 shots for and 15.3 against, a total of 24.0.
- Shot data covers only five matches for Dominica and five for Anguilla.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 13.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches produce many shots on target, mostly for opponents.
- Dominica home shots on target average 3.8 for and 7.8 against, a total of 11.6.
- Anguilla overall shots on target average 1.8 for and 8.8 against, a total of 10.6.
- Anguilla away shots on target average 3.0 for and 7.0 against, a total of 10.0.
- Shots-on-target data covers only five matches for Dominica and four for Anguilla.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 4.5Estimated chance88%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 0W

D1-1DominicavAnguillaJun 5, 2022CON

D0-0AnguillavDominicaJun 2, 2022CON

W3-0DominicavAnguillaJun 2, 2021WOR

Dominica unbeaten in 3 meetingsDominica: 2 clean sheets1.7 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Dominica

D0-0Sint MaartenMar 30CON

L0-2GuyanaMar 27CON

L2-3Sint MaartenNov 15CON

L1-2Saint MartinNov 12CON

L0-5Dominican RepublicJun 10WOR

W3-0British Virgin IslandsJun 4WOR

D0-0BarbadosMay 11FRI

D0-0BarbadosMay 8FRI

D0-0Antigua and BarbudaNov 19CON

L1-6Dominican RepublicNov 16CON

L2-3BermudaOct 16CON

L1-6BermudaOct 12CON

L0-2Dominican RepublicSep 10CON

W2-1Antigua and BarbudaSep 7CON

L2-3JamaicaJun 9WOR

Anguilla

L0-4British Virgin IslandsMar 29CON

W3-1BahamasMar 26CON

L0-4Cayman IslandsNov 16CON

W2-1BahamasNov 12CON

W2-1Saint MartinNov 9FRI

L0-3El SalvadorJun 7WOR

L0-6St. Vincent / GrenadinesJun 4WOR

L0-2GrenadaMay 31FRI

L2-4St. Kitts and NevisMay 24FRI

L1-2Saint MartinMay 24FRI

W1-0British Virgin IslandsApr 20FRI

D0-0British Virgin IslandsApr 17FRI

L1-2Turks and Caicos IslandsOct 13CON

L0-1BelizeOct 10CON

L0-1BelizeSep 10CON

Squad & Injuries

Dominica

22 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Anguilla

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders11

Goalkeeper2