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Predictions graded

Girona0Mallorca0

HT 0–0Sun 4 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 16–9On targetOn target 5–0CornersCorners 5–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 05:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Two relegated sides level on 13 points meet at Montilivi, Girona's nine home league goals against Mallorca's single away goal in three league games.

Girona are the likelier winners; Mallorca's mean defence and May's 1-0 win here are the counterweight. Four prices have something behind them: Girona to win 2.30, both teams not to score 2.15, both teams not to score before half-time 1.20 and Girona to lead at half-time 2.75. The 1.30 on a first-half goal is the weakest.

Context

Girona and Mallorca both dropped out of La Liga after 2025/26 and are rebuilding in LaLiga Hypermotion, where they go into J8 fifth and sixth on 13 points. Their meeting at Montilivi is therefore a direct early test between two of the squads expected to chase promotion rather than a routine mid-table game. A win would put either side clear of the other in the early table, though the pair are separated only by goal difference and neither has yet broken away.
- Girona and Mallorca were both relegated from La Liga at the end of the 2025/26 season.
- After seven rounds both sit on 13 points, fifth and sixth, ahead of the J8 fixture at Montilivi.
- The fixture is the headline game of the J8 round in LaLiga Hypermotion.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 05:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Mallorca have not travelled on Friday and intend to fly to Girona on Sunday morning, at the same time a heavy-storm warning covers Catalonia. A delay to that flight, or to the pitch at Montilivi, would reshape the visitors' preparation and the conditions of the game itself. Nothing had been decided about whether the fixture goes ahead during the build-up, so the situation is worth tracking rather than treating as settled. If conditions improve before the evening kick-off, the practical effect might be limited to travel logistics.
- Mallorca did not travel on Friday and are scheduled to fly Palma–Girona on Sunday morning.
- A heavy-storm warning covers Catalonia on the day of the game.
- No decision to postpone the fixture had been taken during the pre-match build-up.
To watchSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 05:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Losing Morlanes and Marc Roca takes two senior midfield options out of the trip and leaves Mallorca thinner through the middle of the pitch. Valjent's absence further stretches a back line that had been one of the meanest in the division early in the campaign. Their away form adds weight: Mallorca lost at Granada and drew at Elda on the road before this trip. How much the shortage bites depends on the replacements Luis García starts.
- Manu Morlanes and Marc Roca are out injured for the Girona match and could both require surgery.
- Mallorca are also without Martin Valjent and Zito Luvumbo for the fixture.
ReportedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 05:19 · Europe/Bucharest
A run of absences leaves Girona thinner than usual for a home game they will want to dominate. Their recent results suggest they have been winning without controlling matches — the 2-0 over Albacete came on efficient finishing and a strong goalkeeping display rather than sustained command. If the missing players do not return, the balance between control and directness may shift again. The possibility of recovering a player keeps the shape of the XI open.
- Girona's squad for the Mallorca game is depleted by a run of absences.
- The Girona coach could bring one or more players back in time for Sunday.
ReportedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 05:19 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Girona's strong home scoring and Mallorca's low away output point to a home win.
- Girona are 5th on 13 points with a home record of W2 D1 L1, scoring 9 in 4.
- Mallorca have scored once in three away league matches.
- Girona's home split shows 10 goals in five matches, 2.0 per game.
- Mallorca lost three of five away matches in the wider sample.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGironaEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Girona's stronger second-half scoring at home gives them the better chance to win the half.
- Girona's home second-half goals for average is 1.2.
- Mallorca's away second-half goals against average is 0.6.
- Mallorca's away second-half goals for average is 0.4.
- Girona's home second-half goals against average is 1.0.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostGironaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's strong home scoring and Mallorca's low away output point to a home win. The teams are closely matched in the table and Mallorca's defence could keep the game tight.
- Girona are 5th on 13 points with a home record of W2 D1 L1, scoring 9 in 4.
- Mallorca have scored once in three away league matches.
- Both teams are level on 13 points after seven rounds.
- Girona have drawn twice in five home matches in the sample.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGirona or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's first-half scoring and Mallorca's scoreless away first halves favour a home lead. Low first-half scoring from both sides makes a level half-time score plausible.
- Girona's home first-half goals for average is 0.8.
- Girona's home first-half goals against average is 0.2.
- Mallorca have scored no first-half goals in five away matches in the sample.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGirona or DrawEstimated chance84%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's low-scoring away profile and strong clean-sheet record suggest fewer than three goals.
- Mallorca's overall goals against average is 0.82 per game with 6 clean sheets in 11.
- Mallorca's away split shows 0.4 goals scored per game.
- Girona's home split shows 1.2 goals conceded per game.
- Mallorca's last six matches had only 9 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Mallorca's away scoring is too limited to expect both teams to score.
- Mallorca have scored in only 2 of 5 away matches in the sample.
- Mallorca's recent six matches had no both-teams-score result.
- Girona have kept one clean sheet in five home matches.
- Mallorca kept 6 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's home scoring rate makes two or more home goals likely.
- Girona scored in all five home matches in the sample.
- Girona's home split shows 2.0 goals per game.
- Girona scored 9 in four home league matches this season.
- Mallorca's away split shows 1.4 goals conceded per game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostGirona over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's away scoring is very low, making two away goals unlikely.
- Mallorca average 0.4 goals per away match in the sample.
- Mallorca have scored once in three away league games this season.
- Girona's home split shows 1.2 goals conceded per game.
- Mallorca failed to score in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonMallorca under 1.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Girona's habit of scoring before half-time makes at least one first-half goal likely.
- Girona scored in the first half of five of their last six matches.
- Girona's home first-half goals for average is 0.8.
- Mallorca's away first-half goals against average is 0.8.
- Mallorca conceded first-half goals in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Mallorca's blank away first halves make both teams scoring before the break very unlikely.
- Mallorca's away first-half goals for average is 0.
- Girona's home first-half goals against average is 0.2.
- Mallorca have not scored a first-half away goal in the sample.
- Girona's home first-half goals for average is 0.8.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring from both sides points to fewer than two goals after the break.
- Mallorca's away second-half goals for average is 0.4.
- Mallorca's away second-half goals against average is 0.6.
- Girona's recent six matches had four second halves with one goal or fewer.
- Mallorca's last six matches had four second halves with one goal or fewer.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages sit near the 8.5 line with a slight lean under.
- Girona's home corners average 4.4 and opponent corners 3.6.
- Mallorca's away corners average 4.2 and opponent corners 4.8.
- Girona's overall corners total averages 8.0 per match.
- Mallorca's overall corners total averages 8.55 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot averages are below the line, especially using home and away splits.
- Girona average 16 shots per home match; Mallorca average 11 shots per away match, a combined 27.
- Girona's home matches average 26.2 total shots.
- Mallorca's away matches average 21.6 total shots.
- Girona's overall matches average 28.2 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 28.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent card totals are close to the line with a slight lean over.
- Girona's home cards total averages 5.4 per match.
- Mallorca's away cards total averages 4.6 per match.
- Girona's recent six matches averaged 6.0 total cards.
- Mallorca's recent six matches averaged 5.0 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Girona: 4/4 recent goals projections matched

4 of 4 comparable goals projections involving Girona matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Girona4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 May·La Liga

Girona1-1

Elche

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·60%→2 total goals

Matched

23 May 2026

La Liga

Girona1-1

Elche

Under 2.5 goals

60%probability

2 total goals

Matched

14 May·La Liga

Girona1-1

Real Sociedad

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·60%→2 total goals

Matched

14 May 2026

La Liga

Girona1-1

Real Sociedad

Under 2.5 goals

60%probability

2 total goals

Matched

11 May·La Liga

Rayo Vallecano1-1 Girona

Girona

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·60%→2 total goals

Matched

11 May 2026

La Liga

Rayo Vallecano1-1

Girona

Under 2.5 goals

60%probability

2 total goals

Matched

1 May·La Liga

Girona0-1

Mallorca

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·58%→1 total goal

Matched

1 May 2026

La Liga

Girona0-1

Mallorca

Under 2.5 goals

58%probability

1 total goal

Matched

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L0-1GironavMallorcaMay 1, 2026LL

W1-2MallorcavGironaJan 4, 2026LL

W1-0GironavMallorcaMay 5, 2025LL

L2-1MallorcavGironaDec 14, 2024LL

L1-0MallorcavGironaMar 3, 2024LL

Mallorca: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Girona Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)	7	4	1	2	14-8	13	WWLWW
6	Mallorca Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)	7	4	1	2	8-3	13	LWWDW