Tolima0Boyaca Chico0

HT 0–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 21:05 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges0–20%

PossPossession 75%–25%ShotsShots 18–1On targetOn target 6–1CornersCorners 10–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 03:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Tolima's strong home record meets a Chico side with no away win in seven league matches.

Tolima look the likelier winners, and Chico's away scoring rate makes two goals in the game a fair expectation. Tolima to win at 4.5 and over 1.5 goals at 19.0 both offer more than their implied chance requires; the draw at 1.22 does not.

Context

Tolima have had the better of this series, winning three of the four supplied meetings.
That 4-0 is the widest margin in the four supplied meetings, and Tolima also won 4-1 in Chico in April 2025 and 2-1 at home in September 2024. The most recent meeting, on 23 March 2026, finished 1-1 in Chico, so the series cuts both ways: Tolima have scored heavily against this opponent when they win, and Chico have taken a point from the last visit.
- 15 Sep 2025, Primera A: Tolima 4-0 Boyaca Chico in Tolima's home meeting.
- Four supplied meetings span 15 Sep 2024 to 23 Mar 2026; Tolima's other wins were 4-1 away (2 Apr 2025) and 2-1 at home (15 Sep 2024).
Tolima win at home more often than not, but they rarely keep the opposition out.
Tolima scored 1.38 and conceded 1.13 per home match across that eight-game sample, so the home edge is real without being dominant. The single clean sheet and six games with both teams scoring make a shutout the least likely part of a home win. Chico's away record, no win in seven and 2.43 conceded per match, is what makes Tolima's modest home numbers look like enough.
- Home split: eight matches from 21 Jul 2026 to 20 Sep 2026, 4W-2D-2L.
- 1.38 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per home match; one clean sheet; both teams scored in six of the eight.
Chico's away form is the weakest part of their record and the main reason Tolima start as favourites.
That seven-match away sample is the clearest single argument for Tolima: no wins, three draws, and an average of well under a goal scored per match. Three of the seven ended level, so a share of the points is not out of reach for a side that has taken draws on the road in this window. The same sample shows how much they concede away, which is where the home side's opportunity lies.
- Away split: seven matches from 16 May 2026 to 19 Sep 2026, 0W-3D-4L.
- 0.57 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per away match across those seven matches.
Tolima's most recent home match shows heavy pressure that did not turn into a win.
One match is one match, but it shows a Tolima home game turning on a single moment: 28 shots and eight on target produced one goal, while the visitors scored from one of their five attempts. It fits the wider home sample in which Tolima kept one clean sheet in eight matches. Chico's away record gives Tolima more room than America de Cali did, yet it is also a reminder that home pressure has not always become goals.
- 20 Sep 2026, Primera A: Tolima 1-1 America de Cali at home, 28 shots to 5 and 8 on target to 1.
- Tolima received one red card in that match; nine corners to two.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 4.50
The read
Tolima's home record meets a Chico side that has not won any of seven away matches this window.
- Tolima are 4W-2D-2L at home in this window, averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per home match
- Boyaca Chico are 0W-3D-4L away, averaging 0.57 scored and 2.43 conceded per away match
- Tolima won the two most recent home meetings in this head-to-head series (4-0 and 2-1)
- Overall window records: Tolima 6W-3D-5L, Chico 4W-4D-6L from 14 matches each
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTolimaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score sparingly before the break, which favours a level half-time score.
- Combined first-half expectation for the two teams sits near one goal
- Tolima average 0.50 first-half goals at home; Chico 0.43 away
- Five of Tolima's six recent matches were level or goalless at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tolima's second-half scoring at home contrasts sharply with Chico's weak away second halves.
- Tolima average 0.88 second-half goals for and 0.50 against at home
- Chico average 0.14 second-half goals for and 1.57 against away
- Tolima scored both goals after half-time in their 2-1 home win over Cucuta
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostTolimaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tolima's home record meets a Chico side that has not won any of seven away matches this window. Chico's habit of drawing away and Tolima's willingness to concede at home make a shared result plausible.
- Tolima are 4W-2D-2L at home in this window, averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per home match
- Boyaca Chico are 0W-3D-4L away, averaging 0.57 scored and 2.43 conceded per away match
- Tolima drew 2 of 8 home matches; Chico drew 3 of 7 away matches
- The most recent head-to-head, in March 2026, finished 1-1
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTolima or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these teams are low-scoring, which limits the chance of an early Tolima lead. Both teams score sparingly before the break, which favours a level half-time score.
- Tolima average 0.50 first-half goals for and 0.63 against per home match
- Chico average 0.43 first-half goals for and 0.86 against per away match
- Combined first-half expectation for the two teams sits near one goal
- Tolima average 0.50 first-half goals at home; Chico 0.43 away
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTolima or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 19.00
The read
Both teams' home and away splits point to at least two goals being scored.
- Tolima home matches average 2.5 total goals (1.38 for, 1.13 against)
- Chico away matches average 3.0 total goals (0.57 for, 2.43 against)
- Both teams scored in 6 of Tolima's 8 home matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chico's away blank rate outweighs Tolima's tendency to concede at home.
- Chico failed to score in 5 of 7 away matches
- Tolima kept only 1 clean sheet in 8 home matches
- Chico have 5 clean sheets in 14 overall matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tolima's home scoring rate and Chico's away concession rate both support two home goals.
- Tolima average 1.38 goals per home match across 8 matches
- Chico concede 2.43 goals per away match
- Chico kept only 1 clean sheet in 7 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostTolima over 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chico rarely score more than once on the road, so a low away total is the stronger side.
- Chico average 0.57 goals per away match
- Chico scored 4 goals in 7 away matches and scored in only 2 of them
- Tolima kept 1 clean sheet in 8 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBoyaca Chico under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tolima's home record shows they usually concede, so a clean sheet is the less likely side.
- Tolima kept 1 clean sheet in 8 home matches
- Both teams scored in 6 of Tolima's 8 home matches
- Tolima concede 1.13 goals per home match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBoyaca Chico to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half expectations of roughly one goal support at least one goal before the break.
- Tolima average 0.50 first-half goals for and 0.63 against per home match
- Chico average 0.43 for and 0.86 against in first halves away
- A first-half goal was scored in 7 of the 12 recent matches listed for these teams
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chico contribute very little after the break, which keeps the second-half total modest.
- Tolima home second halves average 1.38 total goals
- Chico away second halves average 1.71 total goals
- Chico average 0.14 second-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner totals sit right around the 9.5 line, with a slight lean above.
- Tolima average 6.29 corners for and 3.43 against at home, a 9.71 match total
- Chico average 4.2 corners for and 5.8 against away, a 10.0 match total
- Tolima took 9 corners in their most recent home match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away splits put total shots on target above the line.
- Tolima home matches average 8.71 shots on target in total (6.0 for, 2.71 against)
- Chico away matches average 9.6 shots on target in total (2.4 for, 7.2 against)
- Both legs of the split sit above the 7.5 line
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tolima's home matches regularly clear the 4.5 card line, and Chico pick up their share away.
- Tolima home matches average 4.71 yellow cards combined
- Tolima overall average 5.15 yellow cards combined per match
- Chico away matches average 4.2 yellow cards combined
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance58%