Newell's Old Boys0Lanus0

HT 0–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 8–11On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 00:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Newell's and Lanús are level on 16 points in Zona A, so the last qualifying place is decided here.

Newell's are unbeaten in seven home games and Lanús have lost five of seven away, making Newell's the likelier winner — though March's 5-0 Lanús win and Lanús's three straight league wins cut against that. Value sits with the half-time draw 1.91, Newell's 2.7, Newell's level or ahead at half-time 1.25, Newell's or draw 1.45 and over 2.5 goals 2.6; both teams to score — no, 1.57, does not pay enough.

Context

Both clubs sit on 16 points in Zona A, so this is a direct contest for the eighth and final qualifying place rather than a mid-table fixture. Newell's hold that spot after winning 1-0 at Platense on 20 September, while Lanús climbed in by beating Estudiantes 2-1 the following night for a third straight league win. With two points covering third to eighth, a single result can reshuffle several clubs. The caution is that Lanús's win over Estudiantes came with a lower expected-goals figure than their opponent and long spells with the ball in their own half, so their position reflects finishing as much as control.
- Newell's and Lanús both have 16 points in Zona A before round 11, with Newell's holding the eighth and last qualifying place and only two points separating third from eighth.
- Lanús climbed into the playoff places by beating Estudiantes 2-1 at home on 21 September, a third successive Clausura win.
- Newell's reached 16 points with a 1-0 win at Platense on 20 September and sit among the eight teams in qualification positions.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 00:34 · Europe/Bucharest
The 5-0 defeat in Lanús on 17 March is the only meeting between the clubs this year and the obvious reference point for a Newell's side that has not lost in six Clausura matches. Lanús led 3-0 inside 45 minutes through a Walter Bou penalty and two Dylan Aquino goals, with Aquino completing his hat-trick on 54 minutes and Eduardo Salvio adding a fifth, while Newell's managed five shots and no corners. That level of control is why the result still shapes how the fixture is framed. The limitation is recency and context: the match came in the season's earlier tournament, and the two clubs now go in level on 16 points.
- Lanús beat Newell's 5-0 on 17 March 2026 and led 3-0 at half-time; Walter Bou scored a 16th-minute penalty, Dylan Aquino scored a hat-trick and Eduardo Salvio added a fifth in the 55th minute.
- Lanús had 63% possession, 14 shots and seven corners, while Newell's managed five shots and no corners.
- Aquino's goals were assisted by A. Cardozo and R. Carrera, and he supplied the pass for Salvio's goal.
- The match was played at the Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez, with Bruno Amiconi as referee.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 00:34 · Europe/BucharestLanús 5-0 Newell's Old Boys match reportthisweekinsport.com · 17 Mar 2026Lanús v Newell's Old Boys live match pagewww.bbc.com · 17 Mar 2026
Newell's handed the Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, the adjoining indoor facilities and the dressing rooms to visiting delegations until Friday 25 September, when the club staged the men's football tournament of the Santa Fe 2026 South American Games. The gold-medal match between Argentina and Paraguay was the last game there, and weather alerts had already forced one day's football to be postponed and moved the semifinal kick-off times. That makes pitch condition the most concrete home-side variable here, given a fortnight of competitive football at the venue immediately before this fixture. The tournament ended eight days before kick-off, so the surface has had time to recover, and nothing indicates the match itself is at risk.
- Newell's reserved the Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, the indoor stadium, the microstadium, the sports court and the dressing rooms exclusively for the delegations of the Santa Fe 2026 Juegos Suramericanos until Friday 25 September.
- The men's gold-medal match between Argentina and Paraguay was played at the Estadio Marcelo Bielsa on 25 September, the final day of that tournament.
- Football at the venue was postponed by a day on 20 September because of weather alerts in Rosario, and the two semifinals on 23 September had their kick-off times changed for operational reasons.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 00:34 · Europe/Bucharest
The round was moved because of Argentina's FIFA-date fixtures, so Lanús went the weekend of 26 September without a competitive match and filled it with a friendly against Huracán at their training base, where Pellegrino fielded an entirely different eleven. Players with few appearances, among them Raúl Loaiza and the youth left-back Tomás López, got the minutes, and the regular starters came into this fixture off rest rather than match practice before the squad reconvened on 28 September. The 1-2 defeat says little about the side likely to start in Rosario, so this is a freshness and rotation condition rather than a selection signal. What it does show is that Pellegrino chose to protect his first-choice core through the break.
- Lanús played a friendly against Huracán at La Fortaleza on 25 September, using an entirely different eleven and losing 1-2, with Lucas Besozzi scoring.
- Mauricio Pellegrino used the game to give minutes to players with fewer appearances, among them Raúl Loaiza and the youth left-back Tomás López.
- The professional squad returned to training on Monday 28 September, with the visit to Newell's the following Saturday.
- Round 11 was reprogrammed because of Argentina's three FIFA-date matches, leaving both clubs without a league game that weekend.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 00:34 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.70
The read
Newell's strong home defence and Lanus's poor away form point to a home win.
- Newell's home record: 3W 4D 0L in 7, conceding 0.71 goals per game.
- Lanus away record: 2W 0D 5L in 7, conceding 1.57 goals per game.
- Newell's are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches (3W 3D).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNewell's Old BoysEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
First halves in this fixture are likely to be low-scoring and level.
- Newell's home first-half goals for 0.0, against 0.29.
- Lanus away first-half goals for 0.14, against 0.57.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Newell's strong second-half home record makes them likely to win the half.
- Newell's score 1.29 second-half goals at home, conceding 0.43.
- Lanus concede 1.0 second-half goals away, scoring 1.0.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostNewell's Old BoysEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Newell's strong home defence and Lanus's poor away form point to a home win. Newell's home games often end level, though Lanus rarely draw.
- Newell's home record: 3W 4D 0L in 7, conceding 0.71 goals per game.
- Lanus away record: 2W 0D 5L in 7, conceding 1.57 goals per game.
- Newell's have drawn 4 of 7 home matches and 7 of 15 overall.
- Lanus have drawn only 1 of 15 overall and none away.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNewell's Old Boys or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Newell's solid home defence and Lanus's struggles to score away suggest few goals.
- Newell's home matches average 2.0 total goals; Lanus away average 2.71.
- Newell's have kept clean sheets in 5 of 15 overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Lanus's away scoring troubles and Newell's home defensive record make a shutout likely.
- Lanus have failed to score in 5 of 7 away matches.
- Newell's have kept clean sheets in 5 of 15 overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newell's home scoring is modest, making under 1.5 more likely.
- Newell's home average goals for is 1.29.
- Newell's have scored 0 or 1 in 4 of 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonNewell's Old Boys under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lanus's away scoring is limited, making under 1.5 likely.
- Lanus away average goals for is 1.14.
- Lanus have scored 0 or 1 in 5 of 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonLanus under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Newell's have not always kept clean sheets at home, and Lanus can score away.
- Newell's have conceded in 4 of 7 home matches.
- Lanus have scored in 2 of 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLanus to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newell's consistent home scoring makes a Lanus clean sheet unlikely.
- Newell's have scored in 6 of 7 home matches.
- Lanus have conceded in 5 of 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNewell's Old Boys to scoreEstimated chance75%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined away/home corner averages fall below 9.5, favoring under.
- Lanus away matches average 8.33 total corners.
- Newell's home matches average 9.84 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lanus's away games are high in shots, and Newell's home games add to the total.
- Lanus away matches average 28 total shots.
- Newell's home matches average 21.33 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 23.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The average total shots on target for this fixture is below 8.5.
- Newell's home matches average 6.5 total shots on target.
- Lanus away matches average 8.17 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card averages for both teams are below 4.5, favoring under.
- Newell's home matches average 4.33 total cards.
- Lanus away matches average 4.0 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%