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Predictions graded

Estudiantes de La Plata0Newell's Old Boys0

HT 0–0Mon 31 Aug 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 21–9On targetOn target 9–2CornersCorners 6–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 16:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Estudiantes are strong at home and Newell's are poor away, but the market has already priced in those advantages, leaving no value on the home win or double chance.

The match is likely to be low-scoring, but under 2.5 goals and BTTS No also offer no edge. The only positive edge is on the first-half draw, but it is too small to recommend.

Context

Estudiantes de La Plata are competing in the Liga Profesional Argentina Clausura Group A.
Estudiantes have 31 points from 16 matches, putting them first in the group. Newell's have 15 points from 16 matches, leaving them 14th. The 16-point gap suggests Estudiantes have been more consistent and are likely to control this match.
- Estudiantes are 1st in Clausura Group A with 31 points from 16 matches.
- Newell's are 14th with 15 points from 16 matches.
- Estudiantes have a home record of 5 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses.
Estudiantes de La Plata have played 8 home matches in the Clausura Group A.
Estudiantes have won 5, drawn 1, and lost 2 at home, scoring 11 goals and conceding 4. Newell's have won 2, drawn 2, and lost 4 away, scoring 9 and conceding 17. Estudiantes' solid home defense and Newell's poor away form suggest Estudiantes are likely to win.
- Estudiantes home record: 5 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 11 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- Newell's away record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, 9 goals scored, 17 conceded.
Newell's attacker M. Cóccaro travelled with the squad but is being managed for chronic bilateral tibial stress syndrome.
His starting status is unresolved and the latest preview places him on the bench. If he is limited to a substitute role, Newell's central attacking options from kickoff are reduced, though the exact lineup will only be confirmed at team release.
- Rosario3 reported on 30 August that M. Cóccaro travelled with Newell's to La Plata and was included in the squad.
- The same report said he has chronic bilateral tibial stress syndrome and that Frank Kudelka had not decided whether he would start.
- Rosario3's 31 August preview reported that M. Cóccaro was continuing to have his workload managed and was expected on the bench.
ReportedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 16:46 · Europe/BucharestRosario3 — Cóccaro travelled with the squadwww.rosario3.com · 30 Aug 2026Rosario3 — Newell's match previewwww.rosario3.com · 31 Aug 2026
Newell's Old Boys have played 8 away matches in the Clausura Group A.
Newell's have won 2, drawn 2, and lost 4 away, conceding 17 goals. Their away defense has been weak, and facing Estudiantes' home attack could lead to more goals against.
- Newell's away record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, 17 goals conceded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Estudiantes de La Plata or Draw

1.15fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Estudiantes are unbeaten in 75% of home matches and Newell's lose 50% of away games, but the odds already price this at 87% implied, leaving no value.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Estudiantes de La Plata

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

Estudiantes' home form is strong but the market's 60% implied probability already exceeds our 55% estimate, so the price is fair at best.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have moderate scoring rates and the match is likely to be tight, supporting under 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Estudiantes' solid defense and Newell's inconsistent away scoring make a clean sheet for the home side plausible.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Estudiantes' strong home form and Newell's poor away defensive record give the home side a clear edge.
- Estudiantes home record: 5W-1D-2L, 11 goals for, 4 against in 8 home matches
- Newell's away record: 2W-2D-4L, 9 goals for, 17 against in 8 away matches
- Estudiantes average 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match overall
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEstudiantes de La PlataEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Estudiantes are rarely beaten at home and Newell's struggle on the road, making the double chance a strong play.
- Estudiantes home record: 5W-1D-2L (75% unbeaten at home)
- Newell's away record: 2W-2D-4L (50% losing away)
- H2H last 5: Estudiantes won 2, drew 2, lost 1
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEstudiantes de La Plata or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at the break, and the H2H supports a drawn first half.
- Estudiantes lead at half-time in 40% of matches
- Newell's trail at half-time in 33% of matches
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Estudiantes win is a plausible scenario given their second-half strength.
- Estudiantes win 55% of matches overall
- Newell's lose 44% of away matches
- Estudiantes often score in the second half
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Estudiantes de La PlataEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and the match is likely to be tight, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Estudiantes average 1.4 goals for and 0.8 against per match
- Newell's average 1.2 goals for and 1.3 against per match
- Combined average total goals per match: 2.35
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Estudiantes' solid defense and Newell's inconsistent away scoring make a clean sheet for the home side plausible.
- Estudiantes concede only 0.8 goals per match overall
- Newell's score 1.2 goals per match but only 1.1 away from home
- Estudiantes kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Estudiantes' strong home defensive record gives them a good chance of shutting out Newell's.
- Estudiantes concede 0.8 goals per match overall and 0.5 at home
- Newell's score 1.2 goals per match but only 1.1 away
- Estudiantes kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNewell's Old Boys not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Estudiantes average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.3 against
- Newell's average 0.3 first-half goals for and 0.5 against
- Combined first-half average total goals: 0.85
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, so at least one goal after the break is highly probable.
- Estudiantes average 0.8 second-half goals per match
- Newell's average 0.9 second-half goals per match
- Combined second-half average total goals: 1.7
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4.3 corners each, so the total is likely to be close to the 8.5 line.
- Estudiantes average 4.4 corners per match
- Newell's average 4.3 corners per match
- Combined average corners: 8.7
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 2.5 cards each, making over 4.5 total cards a coin flip.
- Estudiantes average 2.5 yellow cards per match
- Newell's average 2.3 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.8
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W0-2Newells Old BoysvEstudiantes L.P.Feb 25, 2026LIG

D1-1Newells Old BoysvEstudiantes L.P.Sep 30, 2025LIG

D1-1Estudiantes L.P.vNewells Old BoysMar 15, 2025LIG

W1-4Newells Old BoysvEstudiantes L.P.Aug 2, 2024LIG

L2-0Estudiantes L.P.vNewells Old BoysFeb 19, 2024COP

2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Profesional Argentina 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Estudiantes de La Plata Knockout Phase	16	9	4	3	19-7	31	LWLLW
14	Newell's Old Boys	16	3	6	7	15-27	15	WWLDL

16pt gap between teamsEstudiantes de La Plata leads the league

Recent Form

Estudiantes de La Plata

W3-1Barracas CentralAug 27COP

L0-2Sarmiento JuninAug 23LIG

W3-0U. CatolicaAug 19CON

W4-0Gimnasia L.P.Aug 15LIG

D1-1U. CatolicaAug 12CON

L0-2Deportivo RiestraAug 8LIG

L0-1Boca JuniorsAug 5LIG

W3-0Defensa Y JusticiaAug 1LIG

L0-2IndependienteJul 26LIG

W3-0Rosario CentralMay 31COP

W1-0Independiente MedellinMay 27CON

L0-1FlamengoMay 21CON

L0-1Racing ClubMay 10LIG

D1-1CuscoMay 6CON

W2-0PlatenseMay 3LIG

Newell's Old Boys

W2-1BanfieldAug 23LIG

W2-0Deportivo RiestraAug 15LIG

L1-2Defensa Y JusticiaAug 9LIG

D2-2Boca JuniorsAug 2LIG

L0-1IndependienteJul 31LIG

W1-0Talleres CordobaJul 25LIG

D1-1Velez SarsfieldMay 4LIG

D1-1Instituto CordobaApr 26LIG

W3-2Union Santa FeApr 17LIG

D0-0San LorenzoApr 12LIG

W3-1Central Cordoba de SantiagoApr 5LIG

L0-2AcassusoMar 29COP

W1-0Gimnasia M.Mar 21LIG

L0-5LanusMar 17LIG

D1-1PlatenseMar 11LIG

Squad & Injuries

Estudiantes de La Plata

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Newell's Old Boys

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Estudiantes de La Plata or Draw

Estudiantes de La Plata

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Over 0.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Estudiantes de La Plata

Newell's Old Boys

Squad & Injuries

Estudiantes de La Plata

Newell's Old Boys