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Predictions graded

Cuba2Bonaire0

HT 1–0Mon 28 Sept 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 26–7On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 7–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 18:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Cuba are the stronger side by recent results, but their 'home' game is being played in St Kitts and the 3-0 over Grenada leaned on late goals.

Bonaire have lost five of six while still scoring, so Cuba look the more probable winner without the 1.11 being justified. Among the quotes, both teams to score at 2.63 and the draw at 8.5 have something behind them.

Context

Cuba's two September fixtures are listed for the SKNFA Technical Center in Basseterre, and the first of them was reported from the ground as the opening game of a stadium double-header. That means Cuba's nominal home fixture against Bonaire is not being played on home soil, removing the travel and crowd conditions a Cuban host would normally expect, while Bonaire return to a ground they have already played on this window. The venue detail rests on a call-up post and on the staging of matchday one rather than an official venue notice, so the exact setting is reported rather than confirmed.
- A call-up announcement states Cuba's Sept 25 match against Grenada and Sept 28 match against Bonaire are both at the SKNFA Technical Center in Basseterre, St Kitts and Nevis.
- Cuba's group opener against Grenada was reported on the ground as the first game of a double-header at the St Kitts and Nevis federation's stadium.
- Cuba's national team was described as debuting in the group stage in Basseterre, St Kitts and Nevis.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 17:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Bonaire's first group match against St Kitts and Nevis finished 1-2 with a red card in Bonaire's ledger, four days before they face Cuba. A dismissal in the same group window puts a one-match ban in play for the Cuba fixture, which would remove a player from a squad already working with a small group. The available reports do not name the player sent off, so the specific absence cannot be pinned to a position or role.
- Bonaire lost 1-2 to St Kitts and Nevis on Sept 25 and the match summary lists one red card for Bonaire.
- The same summary credits B. Sonnenschein with Bonaire's goal in the 7th minute and T. Williams with both St Kitts and Nevis goals.
- Group C results published the following day confirm Bonaire 1-2 St Kitts and Nevis as a matchday one result.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 17:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Cuba have scored in all but one of their competitive matches across a window running from October 2024 to September 2026, which makes a Bonaire clean sheet hard to picture. The same record shows five clean sheets alongside seven matches in which Cuba were scored against, so the traffic has not been one-way, and Bonaire's habit of finding a goal even in defeat fits that picture. One shut-out in twelve is the exception that keeps the record from being absolute.
- Cuba's 12 competitive matches run from 15 October 2024 to 25 September 2026, with goals scored in 11 of them.
- They average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game, keeping five clean sheets.
- Both teams scored in six of those 12 matches, and Cuba were held scoreless once.
Cuba's 3-0 scoreline against Grenada was assembled from an own goal in the 19th minute and finishes in the 90+1st and 90+4th minutes, so the margin overstates how long the group opener stayed separated. That is worth knowing before treating the result as evidence of a free-scoring Cuba, especially with only a four-day turnaround before facing Bonaire at the same venue. The counterweight is the on-site description of Cuba as untroubled, which suggests the late goals reflected the game opening up rather than a narrow escape.
- Cuba beat Grenada 3-0 on Sept 25 with goals credited as a G. Sandiford own goal in the 19th minute, D. Díaz in the 90+1st and D. Reinoso in the 90+4th.
- A groundhopper report from the same match described Cuba as untroubled against Grenada by the end.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 17:57 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuba has the better recent results and scoring record, and Bonaire has lost five of its last six.
- Cuba: 5W 2D 5L in 12 competitive matches; Bonaire: 3W 1D 9L in 13.
- Cuba recent form: 3W 2D 1L in last 6; Bonaire: 1W 5L in last 6.
- Cuba scored 1.67 goals per game and conceded 1.33; Bonaire scored 1.08 and conceded 1.77.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCubaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuba has the better first-half scoring and conceding record, and Bonaire often trails at the break.
- Cuba averages 0.92 first-half goals for and 0.75 against.
- Bonaire averages 0.54 first-half goals for and 1.00 against.
- Cuba led at half-time in 3 of its last 6 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonCubaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuba has a better second-half scoring and defensive record, and Bonaire often fades after the break.
- Cuba averages 0.75 second-half goals for and 0.58 against.
- Bonaire averages 0.54 second-half goals for and 0.77 against.
- Cuba won the second half in 3 of its last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonCubaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba has the better recent results and scoring record, and Bonaire has lost five of its last six. Draws are less common for both, but Cuba's two recent draws show they can be held.
- Cuba: 5W 2D 5L in 12 competitive matches; Bonaire: 3W 1D 9L in 13.
- Cuba recent form: 3W 2D 1L in last 6; Bonaire: 1W 5L in last 6.
- Cuba drew 2 of 12 competitive matches; Bonaire drew 1 of 13.
- Cuba drew 2 of its last 6 matches; Bonaire had no draws in its last 6.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCuba or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba has the better first-half scoring and conceding record, and Bonaire often trails at the break. Both teams have shown a tendency to be level at half-time, with Bonaire drawing three of its last six first halves.
- Cuba averages 0.92 first-half goals for and 0.75 against.
- Bonaire averages 0.54 first-half goals for and 1.00 against.
- Bonaire drew at half-time in 3 of its last 6 matches.
- Cuba drew at half-time in 1 of its last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCuba or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are involved in high-scoring games, and Bonaire's recent matches have consistently gone over 2.5.
- Cuba's matches average 3.00 total goals (1.67 for, 1.33 against).
- Bonaire's matches average 2.85 total goals (1.08 for, 1.77 against).
- Bonaire's last six matches all had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.63
The read
Bonaire has a habit of scoring even in defeats, and Cuba concedes regularly enough to suggest both teams can score.
- Cuba both teams scored in 6 of 12 matches (50%).
- Bonaire both teams scored in 7 of 13 matches (54%).
- Bonaire scored in 5 of its last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's attack has been productive, and Bonaire's defense is leaky, so Cuba is likely to score at least twice.
- Cuba scored at least two goals in 4 of its last 6 matches.
- Cuba averages 1.67 goals per game overall.
- Bonaire concedes 1.77 goals per game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCuba over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's defense is not impenetrable, and Bonaire has enough attacking threat to score.
- Cuba conceded in 7 of 12 competitive matches.
- Cuba conceded in 3 of its last 6 matches.
- Bonaire averages 1.08 goals per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBonaire to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's consistent scoring makes it very unlikely that Bonaire will keep a clean sheet.
- Bonaire kept clean sheets in only 2 of 13 competitive matches (15%).
- Bonaire has not kept a clean sheet in its last 6 matches.
- Cuba scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCuba to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both teams regularly see first-half goals, making over 0.5 highly likely.
- Cuba's last 6 matches: 5 had at least one first-half goal.
- Bonaire's last 6 matches: all 6 had at least one first-half goal.
- Cuba averages 0.92 first-half goals; Bonaire averages 0.54.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves often produce multiple goals, especially Bonaire's recent games.
- Cuba's last 6: 3 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Bonaire's last 6: 4 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Cuba's second halves average 1.33 total goals; Bonaire's average 1.31.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are involved in matches with a decent number of corners, and recent games went over this line.
- Cuba's matches average 8.67 total corners (5.0 for, 3.67 against).
- Bonaire's matches average 7.33 total corners (2.0 for, 5.33 against).
- Both teams' most recent matches had over 7.5 corners (Cuba: 12; Bonaire: 9).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches have seen double-digit shots on target, and the averages are near the line.
- Cuba's matches average 8.00 total shots on target (4.83 for, 3.17 against).
- Bonaire's matches average 8.33 total shots on target (3.89 for, 4.44 against).
- Both teams' most recent matches had over 8.5 shots on target (Cuba: 10; Bonaire: 10).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's matches tend to have a fair number of cards, and Bonaire's matches are close to the line.
- Cuba's matches average 5.17 yellow cards (2.17 for, 3.00 against).
- Bonaire's matches average 4.22 yellow cards (2.44 for, 1.78 against).
- Cuba's most recent match had 5 yellow cards (2 for Cuba, 3 for Grenada).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.11 price requires 90.1%, above our 50.0% estimate.

Recent Form

Cuba

W3-0GrenadaSep 25CON

D1-1Dominican RepublicMar 29CON

D2-2MartiniqueMar 26CON

W2-0MartiniqueNov 16CON

W3-0St. LuciaNov 12CON

L0-2GrenadaOct 11FRI

L0-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 9FRI

L0-7St. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 5FRI

L1-2BermudaJun 10WOR

W1-0Antigua and BarbudaJun 6WOR

L0-4Trinidad and TobagoMar 25CON

L1-2Trinidad and TobagoMar 21CON

W4-0St. Kitts and NevisNov 18CON

L1-2St. Kitts and NevisNov 14CON

L1-3Trinidad and TobagoOct 15CON

Bonaire

L1-2St. Kitts and NevisSep 26CON

L0-2British Virgin IslandsJun 6FRI

L0-3Saint MartinMar 30CON

W3-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesMar 27CON

L1-2GuyanaNov 15CON

L2-3BarbadosNov 12CON

L1-3St. Vincent / GrenadinesNov 17CON

L0-1El SalvadorNov 15CON

W1-0MontserratOct 13CON

L0-1MontserratOct 10CON

L1-2El SalvadorSep 9CON

D1-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesSep 6CON

D1-1El SalvadorMar 20FRI

L0-4Saint MartinNov 21CON

W3-0AnguillaNov 18CON

Squad & Injuries

Cuba

23 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Bonaire

20 available

Attackers7

Midfielders6

Defenders5

Goalkeeper2

Cuba2Bonaire0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Draw

Under 2.5

Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

BetBugs probabilities

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 7 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Recent Form

Cuba

Bonaire

Squad & Injuries

Cuba

Bonaire