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Predictions graded

Forward Madison0Spokane Velocity FC1

HT 0–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 22:06 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1127%

Edges2–722%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 05:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Forward Madison are unbeaten at home in the league this season, while Spokane have scored in six straight matches and won 1-0 in Madison in August 2025.

Madison are the likelier winners. The clearest prices are Madison to win or draw at 1.29 and Madison to win at 1.85; three or more goals at 1.67 and two or more after half-time at 1.91 carry smaller cases, and the draw at 3.6 or a Spokane win at 3.5 ask for more than the form supports.

Context

Madison's own season framing has shifted from qualification to seeding: its playoff place is secure and the stated aim is a top-four finish and a home playoff match, pursued across the club's final three regular-season home games. This fixture is one of those home dates, so the outcome moves Madison's starting position in the postseason rather than merely its record. Spokane also has seeding to play for, so neither bench has an obvious reason to treat the match as a dead rubber. The limitation is that a secured place can still invite rotation, and nothing in the club's output indicates a plan to rest regulars.
- Forward Madison's playoff place is already secure, with a top-four finish and a home playoff match as the stated aim.
- The club is calling on supporters to attend its final three regular-season home matches, of which the Spokane fixture is one.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 05:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Spokane's league position is the live variable in its season: the side stands seventh on 40 points after a 2-2 home draw with Boise in which it conceded after Luis Gil's second-half goal. Points from this trip therefore bear on qualification and seeding in the closing rounds rather than on pride alone. The standing comes from a weekly statistical round-up rather than a live league table, so the exact cushion over the teams below should be treated as approximate. Madison's parallel chase for a top-four finish sharpens the contrast between two clubs with something concrete to gain.
- Spokane drew 2-2 at home with Boise on 20 September, conceding after Luis Gil's second-half goal.
- Spokane stood seventh on 40 points after that draw, with the fixture in Madison set as its next match.
- Peruvian midfielder Collin Fernández played the full match in that draw.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 05:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Forward Madison's home record is the platform for their push at a top-four finish and a home playoff match.
An unbeaten home season is why Madison start as clear favourites, and Spokane's two wins in 10 away league games point the same way. The qualifier is that five of those 13 home matches ended level, and Spokane have already won 1-0 at this ground in August 2025 while scoring in each of their last six matches. A Madison defeat has not happened at home in the league this season, but the draw column is not empty.
- Standings fetched 26 September 2026: Forward Madison's home league record is 13 played, 8 wins, 5 draws, 0 losses, 33 goals for and 10 against.
- The same table has Madison third on 51 points from 27 matches and Spokane seventh on 40 points from 24.
Carmichael reached the record in the club's mid-September home win over Alta and stands on 12 league goals for the season, having earlier equalled the previous single-season mark. The anchor for this fixture is continuity: Madison's attack is being led by the most prolific single-season scorer in the club's history, and he set the mark on the same ground a week earlier. The milestone explains why the case is worth following rather than implying a playing edge, and no club material indicates a change to his role or minutes. A record is a historical fact, not a forecast, so it should not be read as evidence about how this specific game unfolds.
- After the mid-September home win over Alta, Carmichael holds Forward Madison's record for goals in a single season.
- He had earlier equalled the club's previous single-season mark in the win at Corpus Christi.
- A league scoring round-up puts him on 12 goals for the season.
- Ryan Carmichael started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 05:30 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Madison's strong home record and Spokane's poor away form point to a home win.
- Forward Madison are unbeaten at home in 13 league games (8W 5D 0L, 33 goals for, 10 against).
- Spokane's away league record is 2W 3D 5L with 9 goals scored and 16 conceded in 10 games.
- Forward Madison have won 6 of 10 home matches and drawn 4, averaging 2.5 goals at home.
- Forward Madison sit third on 51 points and are chasing a top-four finish for a home playoff match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostForward MadisonEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Madison's stronger first-half home record and Spokane's tendency to concede early give the home side the edge.
- Forward Madison average 1.1 first-half goals at home and 0.6 against.
- Spokane average 0.714 first-half goals away and 1.0 against.
- Forward Madison's overall first-half goal difference is +5 (13 for, 8 against).
- Spokane's overall first-half goal difference is -5 (9 for, 14 against).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostForward MadisonEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Madison's strong second-half home scoring makes them likely to win the final period.
- Forward Madison average 1.4 second-half goals at home and 0.4 against.
- Spokane average 0.714 second-half goals away and 0.429 against.
- Forward Madison's last six second halves produced 3 wins and 3 draws.
- Forward Madison's overall second-half goal difference is +12 (19 for, 7 against).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostForward MadisonEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Madison's strong home record and Spokane's poor away form point to a home win. Madison's tendency to draw at home and Spokane's three away draws keep a share of the points plausible.
- Forward Madison are unbeaten at home in 13 league games (8W 5D 0L, 33 goals for, 10 against).
- Spokane's away league record is 2W 3D 5L with 9 goals scored and 16 conceded in 10 games.
- Forward Madison have drawn 4 of 10 home league matches this season.
- Spokane have drawn 3 of 10 away league matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostForward Madison or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Madison's stronger first-half home record and Spokane's tendency to concede early give the home side the edge. Both teams' first-half scoring rates are modest enough to make a level first half plausible.
- Forward Madison average 1.1 first-half goals at home and 0.6 against.
- Spokane average 0.714 first-half goals away and 1.0 against.
- Forward Madison have drawn 4 of 10 home matches and often start level.
- Spokane have drawn 1 of 7 away matches in the source window.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonForward Madison or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams' recent matches and season averages point to a high chance of three or more goals.
- Forward Madison home matches average 3.5 total goals (2.5 for, 1.0 against).
- Spokane's last six matches have produced 22 goals, an average of 3.67 per game.
- Spokane's away matches average 2.86 total goals (1.43 for, 1.43 against).
- Forward Madison's overall matches average 3.13 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Spokane's consistent recent scoring and Madison's habit of conceding at home make both teams scoring likely.
- Spokane have scored in all six of their most recent matches and both teams scored in each.
- Forward Madison have conceded in 7 of 10 home matches this season.
- Forward Madison's home matches average 1.0 goal against, with 3 clean sheets in 10.
- Spokane's away matches average 1.43 goals for and 1.43 against.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Madison's strong home scoring rate makes them likely to score at least twice.
- Forward Madison average 2.5 goals per home match in the source window.
- Forward Madison scored 2 or more in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Forward Madison have scored in all 10 home matches tracked this season.
- Forward Madison's home league record shows 33 goals in 13 games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostForward Madison over 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spokane's recent scoring record makes it more likely than not that Madison concede.
- Spokane have scored in all six of their most recent matches.
- Spokane have scored in 4 of their 7 away matches in the source window.
- Forward Madison have conceded in 7 of 10 home matches this season.
- Forward Madison's home matches average 1.0 goal against.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSpokane Velocity FC to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Madison have scored in every home match, so Spokane are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Forward Madison have scored in all 10 home matches tracked this season.
- Forward Madison average 2.5 goals per home match.
- Spokane have kept only 1 clean sheet in 7 away matches.
- Spokane's overall clean-sheet rate is 2 in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostForward Madison to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spokane's recent scoring makes it more likely that Madison concede even if they win.
- Spokane have scored in all six of their most recent matches.
- Forward Madison have only 3 clean sheets in 10 home matches.
- Forward Madison have conceded in 7 of 10 home matches.
- Spokane's away matches average 1.43 goals for.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Madison's consistent home scoring makes a Spokane win without conceding very unlikely.
- Forward Madison have scored in all 10 home matches tracked.
- Forward Madison average 2.5 goals per home match.
- Spokane have kept only 1 clean sheet in 7 away matches.
- Spokane have not kept a clean sheet in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostNoEstimated chance94%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
The first-half goal rates for both teams point strongly to at least one goal before the break.
- Spokane's last six matches all had at least one first-half goal.
- Forward Madison's home matches average 1.7 first-half goals (1.1 for, 0.6 against).
- Spokane's away matches average 1.71 first-half goals (0.714 for, 1.0 against).
- Forward Madison's overall first-half goals average is 1.4 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Recent first-half data shows both teams scoring together is a rare event.
- Forward Madison's last six first halves produced no instance of both teams scoring.
- Spokane's last six first halves produced one instance of both teams scoring.
- Forward Madison have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 home matches.
- Spokane have scored in 3 of their last 6 first halves.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Madison's strong second-half scoring and Spokane's recent matches suggest a reasonable chance of two or more goals after the break.
- Forward Madison's home second halves average 1.8 total goals (1.4 for, 0.4 against).
- Forward Madison's last six second halves produced 4 with over 1.5 goals.
- Spokane's last six second halves produced 3 with over 1.5 goals.
- Spokane's overall second-half total average is 1.6 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 3.6 price requires 27.8%, above our 24.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Forward Madison: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Forward Madison matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Forward Madison7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·USL League One

Forward Madison5-2

Chattanooga Red Wolves

BetBugsForward Madison to win·45%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

USL League One

Forward Madison5-2

Chattanooga Red Wolves

Forward Madison to win

45%probability

Forward Madison won

Matched

26 Jul·USL League One

Forward Madison3-1

FC Naples

BetBugsForward Madison to win·65%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

USL League One

Forward Madison3-1

FC Naples

Forward Madison to win

65%probability

Forward Madison won

Matched

16 Jul·USL League One

Forward Madison4-0

Richmond Kickers

BetBugsForward Madison to win·65%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

USL League One

Forward Madison4-0

Richmond Kickers

Forward Madison to win

65%probability

Forward Madison won

Matched

21 Jun·USL League One

Forward Madison3-1

New York Cosmos

BetBugsForward Madison to win·65%

Matched

21 Jun 2026

USL League One

Forward Madison3-1

New York Cosmos

Forward Madison to win

65%probability

Forward Madison won

Matched

18 Jun·USL League One

Forward Madison1-1

Fort Wayne FC

BetBugsForward Madison to win·45%

Missed

18 Jun 2026

USL League One

Forward Madison1-1

Fort Wayne FC

Forward Madison to win

45%probability

Draw

Missed

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-1Spokane VelocityvForward MadisonJul 2, 2026USL

L0-1Forward MadisonvSpokane VelocityAug 22, 2025USL

L2-1Spokane VelocityvForward MadisonJun 15, 2025USL

D0-0Forward MadisonvSpokane VelocityNov 10, 2024USL

W2-0Forward MadisonvSpokane VelocitySep 21, 2024USL

Forward Madison: 3 clean sheetsSpokane Velocity FC: 2 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

USL League One 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Forward Madison Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	27	15	6	6	50-26	51	WLDWD
7	Spokane Velocity FC Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	24	12	4	8	36-33	40	DLDWW