Celta Fortuna1Sabadell1

HT 1–1Sat 26 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 4–10On targetOn target 1–2CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 07:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Sabadell have not scored away in the league this season and both clubs are missing a forward, yet Celta Fortuna have kept no home league clean sheet.

The likeliest shape is a low-scoring game that Sabadell do not win. Four of the quoted prices look worthwhile: both teams to score — No at 1.91, Celta Fortuna to win or draw at 1.67, Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 and the draw at 3.30.

Context

Sabadell's summer rebuild leaned on new attacking signings and Gioacchini justified it with three goals in his first five Segunda appearances. His absence is confirmed by the club's own medical tests, so Ferran Costa has to plan the Balaidos attack without the player who had been the leading scorer. The timing softens the blow slightly: the injury came in training before matchday 6, and Gaston Valles has already started and scored in his place. Specialists consulted by Radio Sabadell see little prospect of a return before the season ends.
- Sabadell's medical tests showed a rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament in Gioacchini's right knee and the club said he will need surgery.
- Radio Sabadell reported that specialists consulted by the station see it as almost impossible for him to play again this season.
- He had scored three goals in the first five league games of his first Segunda season.
- N. Gioacchini started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 07:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Celta's own update on 23 September confirmed the syndesmosis rupture in Somuah's left ankle, and La Categoria de Plata put the absence at roughly four months. Somuah had started the previous league game at Almeria, so the Sabadell visit arrives with the Fortuna's forward line already reshaped. The limitation is that his minutes were shared inside a squad that rotates teenagers, which makes the size of the on-pitch drop-off hard to isolate.
- Celta announced that Bernard Somuah has suffered a rupture of the syndesmosis in his left ankle.
- Celta Fortuna's forward is expected to be out for approximately the next four months.
- B. Somuah started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 175 minutes across 5 appearances.
- A. Marin started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when B. Somuah did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 07:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Sabadell did not wait for the diagnosis: Valles was already in the XI against Real Oviedo on 20 September, the day before the club confirmed Gioacchini's cruciate rupture. He headed the opener from Joel Priego's cross and was withdrawn on 57 minutes with the game settled. His place at Balaidos therefore looks like continuity rather than an emergency reshuffle, though a single start and one headed finish is a thin basis for judging how the attack will hold up.
- Valles replaced Gioacchini in Sabadell's starting XI against Real Oviedo on 20 September.
- He headed Sabadell's opening goal from a Joel Priego cross, his first goal at the Nova Creu Alta.
- Gastón Valles started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- N. Gioacchini started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Gastón Valles did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 07:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Sobral is a 2009-born midfielder who started the 2-0 win at Ceuta on 5 September, days after becoming the first Celta youth player to appear in the second tier for the reserve side. The reporting that he misses this game and the following trip to Sporting sits alongside Faro de Vigo's account of international call-ups stripping the same midfield, so Fredi is reworking the centre of the pitch against a Sabadell side that has started well. Neither absence has been confirmed by an official club statement, and a teenager with a handful of appearances is unlikely to be decisive on his own.
- La Categoria de Plata reported that Celta Fortuna would be without their central midfielder for matchday 7 against Sabadell and matchday 8 at Sporting.
- Faro de Vigo reported the Fortuna were without Cuenca, Mateo and Vlad Silva through the "FIFA virus" before the trip to Almeria.
- Celta's academy account presented his 5 September appearance as the first time a Celta youth player had played in the second tier for the Fortuna.
- M. Sobral started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 07:45 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell have not scored a first-half away goal and Celta rarely lead at home, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Celta home first half: 0.17 GF, 1.0 GA per match.
- Sabadell away first half: 0 GF, 0.75 GA per match.
- Sabadell away league first halves: two 0-0 and one 0-2.
- Celta home recent six: first half ended level in 2 of 6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's away second halves have been scoreless, making a drawn second half the most likely outcome.
- Sabadell away second half: 0 goals for, 0 against in 4 matches.
- Celta home second half: 1.33 GF, 0.83 GA per match.
- Sabadell away league: all second halves 0-0.
- Celta home recent six: second half ended level in 3 of 6.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Celta Fortuna have home advantage and Sabadell have not won or scored away in the league, keeping the home win in a close three-way split. Sabadell's away matches have been low-scoring and draw-heavy, and Celta Fortuna have not dominated at home.
- Celta Fortuna home league record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses; 5 goals for, 8 against.
- Sabadell away league record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; 0 goals for, 2 against.
- Sabadell away league: 2 draws in 3, 0 goals scored.
- Celta Fortuna home league: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCelta Fortuna or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celta rarely lead at half-time at home, while Sabadell have not scored a first-half away goal, so a Celta half-time lead is a minority outcome. Sabadell have not scored a first-half away goal and Celta rarely lead at home, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Celta home first half: 0.17 goals for, 1.0 against per match.
- Sabadell away first half: 0 goals for, 0.75 against per match.
- Celta home first half: 0.17 GF, 1.0 GA per match.
- Sabadell away first half: 0 GF, 0.75 GA per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCelta Fortuna or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Sabadell's away matches have not produced many goals, and both sides are missing attacking players.
- Sabadell away league: 0 goals scored, 2 conceded in 3 matches; all under 2.5.
- Sabadell overall: 5 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches.
- Celta home recent six: 3 matches under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams lost a forward to injury.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Sabadell's away blank and strong clean-sheet record make at least one team failing to score the favoured outcome.
- Sabadell away league: 0 goals in 3 matches.
- Sabadell overall: 5 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches.
- Celta home recent six: both teams scored in 3 of 6.
- Celta home league: 0 clean sheets, but Sabadell away no goals.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celta have been held to one goal or fewer in two of three home league games, while Sabadell's away defence is strong.
- Celta home league: scored 0, 1, and 4 goals in three home matches.
- Sabadell away league: 2 clean sheets in 3 matches.
- Sabadell overall: 5 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches.
- Celta missing forward Somuah.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCelta Fortuna under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell have failed to score in every away league match, strongly pointing to under 1.5 away goals.
- Sabadell away league: 0 goals in 3 matches.
- Sabadell overall away splits: 0 goals in 4 matches.
- Sabadell lost top scorer Niko Gioacchini for the season.
- Celta home league: conceded 8 goals in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSabadell under 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Celta's home first halves often contain goals, though Sabadell's away first halves have mostly been scoreless.
- Celta home first half: 1.17 total goals per match.
- Sabadell away first half: 0.75 total goals per match.
- Celta home recent six: over 0.5 first-half goals in 4 of 6.
- Sabadell away league: over 0.5 first-half goals in 1 of 3.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's away second halves have been goalless and Celta's home second halves have mostly stayed under 1.5.
- Sabadell away league: 0 second-half goals in 3 matches.
- Celta home recent six: under 1.5 second-half goals in 4 of 6.
- Sabadell away splits: 0 goals for, 0 against in second halves.
- Celta home second half: 0,0,1,2,6,0 goals in tracked home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Celta's home matches have stayed under 8.5 corners, but Sabadell's away matches have often gone over.
- Celta home recent three: corner totals 6, 6, 8.
- Sabadell away recent three: corner totals 10, 8, 9.
- Celta overall tracked: 7.83 total corners per match.
- Sabadell overall tracked: 8.0 total corners per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's away matches have produced fewer total shots, pulling the combined expectation below 28.5.
- Celta recent total shots average: 28.5 per match.
- Sabadell recent total shots average: 26.2 per match.
- Celta home shots: 15.33 for, 14 against per match.
- Sabadell away shots: 14.33 for, 9.67 against per match.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 28.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's away matches have produced few shots on target, pulling the combined expectation below 9.5.
- Celta recent shots on target average: 10.33 per match.
- Sabadell recent shots on target average: 8.0 per match.
- Celta home SOT: 6.67 for, 5.67 against per match.
- Sabadell away SOT: 2.33 for, 4.0 against per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sabadell's recent card totals are slightly below 5.5, but Celta's matches have often gone over.
- Celta recent card totals: 1, 7, 7, 4, 7, 7.
- Sabadell recent card totals: 4, 3, 5, 7, 7, 4.
- Celta home cards: 2.83 yellow, 0 red per match.
- Sabadell away cards: 3 yellow, 0 red per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 5.5Estimated chance52%