Ujpest2Zalaegerszeg1

HT 0–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 15–19On targetOn target 9–4CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 17:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Újpest's unbeaten home record against a Zalaegerszeg side that has scored zero goals in four away games makes the home win the base case, with a modest edge at 1.83.

The standout value is Both Teams to Score 'No' at 2.25, while first-half Over 0.5 at 1.25 is the clearest market to avoid. Watch Machado as ZTE's one realistic route to goal.

Context

Zalaegerszeg are bottom of NB I with six points from seven games and are winless on the road in the league this season.
Their four away league matches have produced 0 goals for and 12 against, including a 5-0 loss at Vasas on 8 August 2026 and a 3-0 defeat at Gyori ETO on 23 August 2026. Ujpest have won two and drawn one of three home league games, scoring eight and conceding four. The away sample is small, but it points to a side that has not yet found a way to score or stay compact on the road, which shapes how much of the match Zalaegerszeg can spend attacking.
- Zalaegerszeg away league record in 2026-27: 4 played, 0 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses, 0 goals for, 12 against.
- They lost 5-0 at Vasas on 8 August 2026 and 3-0 at Gyori ETO FC on 23 August 2026.
- Ujpest home league record: 3 played, 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 8 goals for, 4 against.
Ujpest sit fourth in NB I with 15 goals in seven league games, the joint-highest total in the division.
Their recent league scoring includes 4-2 wins over Kisvarda on 8 August 2026 and Debrecen on 2 August 2026, plus a 3-1 home win over Vasas on 29 August 2026. They also drew 2-2 at Ferencvaros on 6 September 2026. Zalaegerszeg have conceded 15 goals in seven league games, including five at Vasas and three at home to Gyori ETO. The scoring pattern is consistent, though Ujpest's 1-0 defeat at Paks on 21 August 2026 shows they can be held when their finishing is off.
- Ujpest scored 4 goals against Kisvarda on 8 August 2026 and 4 against Debrecen on 2 August 2026.
- Ujpest beat Vasas 3-1 at home on 29 August 2026 and drew 2-2 at Ferencvaros on 6 September 2026.
- Zalaegerszeg have conceded 15 goals in seven NB I matches this season.
Zalaegerszeg are 12th in NB I with two wins and five defeats from seven games, and their goal difference is minus nine.
Since beating Paks 5-2 at home on 3 August 2026, they have lost to Vasas, Ferencvaros, Gyori ETO, Budapest Honved and MTK Budapest in the league. The 1-0 home win over Puskas Academy on 6 September 2026 is their only league victory in that run. That home result shows they can defend a narrow lead, but the away defeats have been heavier, and Ujpest's home scoring makes a repeat of the Puskas clean sheet harder to rely on.
- Zalaegerszeg league form: WLLLL, with six points from seven games.
- Their only league win since 3 August 2026 was 1-0 at home to Puskas Academy on 6 September 2026.
- They have lost league games to Vasas, Ferencvaros, Gyori ETO, Budapest Honved and MTK Budapest.
Márió Zeke is Újpest's left-back, signed less than two weeks before a September 10 interview. He started the September 6 derby after missing the Vasas match through suspension, and has started 1 of the last 5 team fixtures with available lineups.
Zeke has described moving from a wing-back role in Paks's five-man defence to defending deeper in Újpest's back four, a current change on the left flank. That affects how Újpest cover that side and handle wide transitions, though his limited recent starting record means the adjustment is still being tested.
- Újpest described Márió Zeke as its left-back and said he had joined less than two weeks before the September 10 interview.
- Zeke said he started the September 6 derby after missing the Vasas match through suspension.
- He said Újpest use a back four, where he defends deeper than he did as a wing-back in Paks's five-man defence.
- M. Zeke started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 17:51 · Europe/BucharestÚjpest FC interview with Márió Zekewww.ujpestfc.hu · 10 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge is extreme: Zalaegerszeg have scored zero and conceded 12 in four away games while Ujpest are unbeaten at home, and the motivation gap (Ujpest 1 point off top vs ZTE bottom of the table) reinforces the home side.
- Ujpest home record 2026 NB I: 2W 1D 0L, 8 goals for, 4 against in 3 home matches
- Zalaegerszeg away record: 0W 0D 4L, 0 goals for, 12 against in 4 away matches
- Ujpest rank 4 with 11 points; Zalaegerszeg rank 12 (relegation) with 6 points and -9 goal difference
- Ujpest last 5 league matches: 2W 2D 1L, scoring 10 goals
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUjpestEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Ujpest's unbeaten home record with ZTE's goalless, pointless away campaign makes a home win or draw the dominant outcome; the only realistic away route is a set-piece or new-signing finish.
- Ujpest home: 2W 1D 0L in 3 home league matches this season
- Zalaegerszeg away: 0W 0D 4L, 0 goals scored in 4 away matches
- Ujpest unbeaten in 3 of last 5 league outings (2W 2D 1L)
- ZTE have lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (form WLLLL)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUjpest or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
ZTE's high half-time trailing rate (47%) against Ujpest's 40% half-time leading rate gives the home side the edge in the first 45 minutes.
- Ujpest lead at half-time in 40% of matches; ZTE trail at half-time in 47%
- Ujpest average 0.7 first-half goals; ZTE concede 0.9 first-half goals
- ZTE have trailed at half-time in 47% of their matches this season
- Ujpest scored first-half goals in 3 of their last 5 league matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostUjpestEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ujpest's strong home form and ZTE's tendency to trail at half-time make a home half-time/full-time double plausible, though the 40% half-time lead rate limits confidence.
- Ujpest lead at half-time in 40% of matches
- Ujpest home record 2W 1D 0L with 8 goals scored
- ZTE trail at half-time in 47% of matches
- ZTE have lost 4 of 4 away matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostUjpest/UjpestEstimated chance28%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences leak (Ujpest 1.6, ZTE 2.1 conceded per game) and ZTE's away games have been high-scoring against them, though the 0-0 and low-scoring H2H results cap confidence.
- Ujpest average 1.7 goals for and 1.6 against per match (last 15)
- Zalaegerszeg average 1.6 goals for and 2.1 against per match (last 15)
- ZTE away matches have produced 12 goals against in 4 games; Ujpest home games 8 for, 4 against in 3
- H2H last 5 meetings produced 2, 2, 5, 0 and 3 goals (avg 2.4)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
ZTE's complete away scoring drought (0 goals in 4) is the strongest signal against both teams scoring, though Ujpest's leaky defence (1.6 conceded) keeps this only medium confidence.
- Zalaegerszeg have scored 0 goals in 4 away league matches this season
- ZTE away record: 0 goals for, 12 against in 4 games
- Ujpest home record: 8 goals for, 4 against in 3 home matches
- H2H last 5: two matches ended with a clean sheet for one side (2-0, 0-0)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
ZTE's away goalless run is a concrete structural signal supporting a home clean sheet, but Ujpest's 1.33 home goals-conceded rate prevents high confidence.
- Zalaegerszeg have failed to score in all 4 away league matches (0 goals)
- ZTE average 1.6 goals per game overall but 0.0 away
- Ujpest conceded 4 goals in 3 home matches (1.33 per game)
- ZTE's only away goals came in cup/friendly fixtures, not NB I
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostZalaegerszeg not to scoreEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average close to a goal each in the first half and ZTE's early concessions are frequent, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Ujpest average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.9 against
- ZTE average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.9 against
- ZTE have conceded first-half goals in 5 of their last 7 league matches
- Combined first-half goal expectation ~1.6 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been the higher-scoring period for both sides, and ZTE's away defensive collapse (12 conceded in 4) supports late goals.
- Ujpest average 1.0 second-half goals (1.7 total minus 0.7 first-half)
- ZTE average 0.8 second-half goals for and 1.2 against
- ZTE conceded 12 goals in 4 away matches, many after the break
- Ujpest scored 3+ goals in 3 of their last 6 league matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
ZTE's away goalless record supports a home win to nil, but Ujpest's own defensive record (1.33 conceded at home) keeps this a low-confidence play.
- ZTE have scored 0 goals in 4 away league matches
- Ujpest conceded 4 goals in 3 home matches (1.33 per game)
- Ujpest kept 1 clean sheet in their last 5 league matches
- ZTE's away scoring drought is the key supporting factor
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate modest corners but concede several, and ZTE's away games have produced high opponent corner counts, giving a slight lean to the over.
- Ujpest average 3.5 corners per match; ZTE average 3.5 corners per match
- Ujpest recent matches show opponent corners of 5, 1, 6, 6, 11
- ZTE recent matches show opponent corners of 7, 5, 2, 1, 7
- Combined corner average ~7 plus opponent corners often exceed 5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined disciplinary averages sit just under four cards, and a relegation-threatened ZTE side chasing points away could add fouls, supporting a marginal over.
- Ujpest average 1.9 yellow cards and 13 fouls per match
- ZTE average 2.0 yellow cards and 10.5 fouls per match
- Ujpest recent matches show 2, 2, 0, 0, 1 yellows; ZTE show 1, 1, 4, 2, 2
- Combined yellow average ~3.9 per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ujpest's high shot volume (13.9 per game) against a ZTE side that concedes plenty of shots away supports the home team exceeding 12.5 shots.
- Ujpest average 13.9 shots per match (last 15)
- Ujpest recent home matches: 13, 22, 17, 18 shots
- ZTE concede high shot volumes away (16, 16, 10, 12 in recent away games)
- Ujpest average 5.3 shots on target per match
BetBugs · Home Shots TotalwonUjpest over 12.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ujpest's shot-on-target average of 5.3 and ZTE's porous away defence make over 4.5 home shots on target a reasonable lean.
- Ujpest average 5.3 shots on target per match
- Ujpest recent matches: 3, 7, 5, 8, 8 shots on target
- ZTE concede 4-6 shots on target per away match
- Ujpest home matches produced 7 and 8 shots on target
BetBugs · Home Shots on Target TotalwonUjpest over 4.5Estimated chance58%