Leeds United0Crystal Palace0

HT 0–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–918%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 13–12On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 05:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Leeds are favored at home against a Palace side dealing with a short Europa League turnaround and a possible defensive suspension, but the match winner odds offer no value.

The best betting edge is Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 1.67, with a 65% estimated probability versus 59.9% implied. Avoid Over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.29, as the price is too short relative to the actual likelihood.

Context

Leeds United are third in the Premier League with eight points from four matches. Crystal Palace are 16th with three points from four matches.
Leeds United have won two and drawn two in the league, including a 4-1 home win over Newcastle on 14 September. Crystal Palace have lost three of four, most recently 2-3 at home to Ipswich on 12 September. The gap in form and table position suggests Leeds United enter this match in stronger shape, but early-season samples remain small.
- Leeds United are 3rd with 8 points from 4 matches (W2 D2 L0).
- Crystal Palace are 16th with 3 points from 4 matches (W1 D0 L3).
- Leeds United beat Newcastle 4-1 at home on 14 September 2026.
- Crystal Palace lost 2-3 at home to Ipswich on 12 September 2026.
Crystal Palace defender Axel Disasi was sent off in the 34th minute of the 12 September league defeat to Ipswich for a high challenge. He had started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His availability for the Leeds match is unresolved because no current source states the disciplinary outcome. If suspended, Palace would need to alter their defensive selection, and the Ipswich match showed Takehiro Tomiyasu replacing Yéremy Pino in defence after the dismissal. Until the ban is confirmed, this remains a material source of uncertainty for Palace's back line.
- Crystal Palace reported that Disasi was sent off in the 34th minute against Ipswich.
- The club said the dismissal forced Pierre Sage to replace Yéremy Pino with Takehiro Tomiyasu in defence.
- A. Disasi started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 05:25 · Europe/BucharestCrystal Palace match reportwww.cpfc.co.uk · 12 Sep 2026
Crystal Palace have conceded 11 goals in four Premier League matches, an average of 2.75 per game.
They lost 1-4 at home to Manchester City on 28 August and 2-3 at home to Ipswich on 12 September. Leeds United have scored seven goals in four league matches, including four against Newcastle. Palace's defensive record suggests Leeds United may create chances, but Palace did win 3-2 away at Fulham on 5 September, showing they can score on the road.
- Crystal Palace have conceded 11 goals in 4 Premier League matches.
- Crystal Palace lost 1-4 at home to Manchester City on 28 August 2026.
- Crystal Palace lost 2-3 at home to Ipswich on 12 September 2026.
- Leeds United scored 4 goals against Newcastle on 14 September 2026.
Leeds United centre-back Joe Rodon is the club's only expected absentee and has been described as a long-term injury. He started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His continued absence removes a central-defensive selection option against Palace. In the recent fixtures where Rodon did not start, G. Gudmundsson started in the same position in 2 of the 5 available lineups, so Leeds have an established replacement. The impact is limited because the rest of the squad was available for the Newcastle match.
- Leeds' 13 September team-news preview said only Joe Rodon was expected to miss Newcastle, with the rest of the squad available.
- Leeds' official X account described Rodon's injury as long-term on 8 September.
- J. Rodon started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- G. Gudmundsson started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when J. Rodon did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 05:25 · Europe/BucharestLeeds United team newswww.leedsunited.com · 13 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Leeds United

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Leeds' stronger league form and home advantage are offset by the market's already short price, leaving no positive edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leeds' stronger league form and home advantage, combined with Palace's poor defensive record, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Leeds are 3rd with 8 points from 4 games (W2 D2 L0), while Palace are 16th with 3 points (W1 L3).
- Leeds average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game; Palace average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Leeds won the last home H2H 4-1 in December 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLeeds UnitedEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leeds' strong form and home resilience make them unlikely to lose, so double chance Leeds or draw is a high-probability outcome.
- Leeds are unbeaten in their last 4 league matches (W2 D2).
- Palace have lost 3 of their 4 league games this season.
- Leeds have not lost at home in the league this season (W1 D1).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLeeds United or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leeds' tendency to start strongly and Palace's poor first-half record give Leeds a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Leeds led at half-time in 47% of their recent matches.
- Palace trailed at half-time in 50% of their recent matches.
- Leeds average 0.9 first-half goals vs Palace's 0.6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLeeds UnitedEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leeds are favored to win, and if they lead at half-time they are likely to maintain it, but the probability remains moderate.
- Leeds have won 2 of their last 4 league matches.
- Palace have lost 3 of their last 4 league matches.
- Leeds won the last home H2H 4-1.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLeeds United/Leeds UnitedEstimated chance30%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches, with Leeds' attacking output and Palace's defensive struggles supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Leeds average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game.
- Palace average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game.
- Combined average goals per game for both teams is 3.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability while also conceding regularly, making both teams to score likely.
- Leeds have scored in all 4 league games this season.
- Palace have scored in 3 of their 4 league games.
- Leeds have conceded in 3 of 4 league games; Palace have conceded in all 4.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Leeds particularly strong early, supporting over 0.5 first-half goals.
- Leeds average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded.
- Palace average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
- In 4 of Leeds' last 5 matches, there was at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score after the break, and the match is expected to be open, making over 1.5 second-half goals plausible.
- Leeds average 1.1 second-half goals scored (total goals minus first-half goals).
- Palace average 0.9 second-half goals scored.
- Combined second-half average is 2.0 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner statistics suggest a total around 9-10 corners, making over 8.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Leeds average 4.3 corners per game and concede 5.3 opponent corners.
- Palace average 2.8 corners per game and concede 5.0 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners per game is 9.6.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and allow a moderate number of shots on target, making over 8.5 slightly more likely than under.
- Leeds average 4.3 shots on target per game and concede 4.7 opponent shots on target.
- Palace average 3.6 shots on target per game and concede 5.0 opponent shots on target.
- Combined average shots on target per game is 8.9.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The expected total cards is close to 3.5, making this a near 50/50 market with no strong edge.
- Leeds average 1.7 yellow cards per game and draw 2.0 opponent yellow cards.
- Palace average 1.4 yellow cards per game and draw 2.0 opponent yellow cards.
- Combined average yellow cards per game is 3.7.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 57.8% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Leeds United has been highly reliable when projected to see over 2.5 goals

Leeds United has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent over 2.5 goals predictions, a strong 80% success rate. The average estimated probability was 57.4%, with an expected 2.9 fulfilled predictions, so actual results exceeded expectation. The current prediction of 60% sits within the historical range of 52% to 65%, suggesting consistency with past projections.

Recent evidence for Leeds United5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Premier League