Las Palmas1Burgos2

HT 1–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–1220%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 13–9On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 20:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Las Palmas sit fifth and host a Burgos side yet to score away in the league, but Burgos have avoided defeat in the last five meetings and the last three all finished 0-0.

Expect a tight, low-scoring night with Las Palmas marginal favourites and the draw close behind. Two prices offer something: Burgos to win or draw at 3.75, and the same side to win at 15. Under 2.5 goals at 1.57 and no both-teams-to-score at 1.6 fit but add little.

Context

For Las Palmas, this fixture has become a puzzle: five meetings without a goal against Burgos, including three straight 0-0 draws.
Burgos have taken two 2-0 wins at Las Palmas, in November 2022 and February 2022, and have avoided defeat in every meeting since. The last three fixtures produced no goals at all, so a tight, low-scoring game is the reasonable starting point. Five meetings spread over four years is a small sample, and it shapes expectations rather than settling the match.
- 7 February 2026, Segunda División: Las Palmas 0-0 Burgos.
- Las Palmas have not scored in any of the last five head-to-heads (February 2022 to February 2026).
- The three most recent meetings (February 2023, September 2025, February 2026) all finished 0-0.
Burgos have scored just twice in those five away matches, so the clean sheets have carried most of their points on the road.
Two goals scored and one conceded in five away matches, with four clean sheets, is why Burgos look so hard to break down on their travels. Opponents failed to score in four of those five games, so a single goal could decide this one. The sample is five matches, and the league-only away split is smaller still, with no goals scored in two matches this season.
- Five away matches between 3 May and 11 September 2026: 2W-2D-1L, two goals scored, one conceded, four clean sheets.
- Las Palmas' opponents failed to score in four of those five matches.
- Both teams scored in none of the five away matches (0/5); Burgos averaged 2.2 shots on target per game.
Las Palmas have taken five points from a possible twelve at home across that sample, with only two goals scored in four matches.
Las Palmas have taken five points from four competitive home matches and kept one clean sheet, so their home form has been tight rather than dominant. Two goals in that sample is why a repeat of the recent goalless home draw with Leganes is a realistic shape here. The sample is four matches, so it describes recent form rather than a fixed level.
- Four competitive home matches, 24 May to 4 September 2026: 1W-2D-1L, two goals scored, three conceded.
- One clean sheet at home in that sample.
- Both teams scored in two of the four matches.
Las Palmas kept a clean sheet but created almost nothing, with three shots and one on target across 90 minutes.
It is one match rather than a pattern, but three shots and one on target at home shows how narrow Las Palmas' games can become, and it sits alongside a home split of two goals in four matches. Leganes managed 10 shots and two on target, so the home side did not control the game. A repeat would make this a low-event fixture again.
- 4 September 2026, Segunda División: Las Palmas 0-0 Leganes.
- Las Palmas: three shots, one on target; Leganes: 10 shots, two on target.
- Las Palmas collected three yellow cards.

BetBugs edges

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BetBugs probabilities

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Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Las Palmas have home advantage and slightly better overall league position, but Burgos are defensively strong and historically avoid defeat in this fixture.
- Las Palmas league record: 3W-1D-1L; home record 1W-1D-0L with 2 goals scored and 1 conceded.
- Burgos league away record: 0W-1D-1L with 0 goals scored and 1 conceded.
- Last five head-to-heads: three 0-0 draws and two 2-0 Burgos wins.
- Las Palmas home split across four competitive matches: 1W-2D-1L, 2 goals scored.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLas PalmasEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams start cautiously and first-half goals have been scarce in this fixture.
- Las Palmas home first-half goals for: 0.5; against: 0.0.
- Burgos away first-half goals for: 0.4; against: 0.2.
- Both teams average under 0.8 first-half goals.
- Recent head-to-heads were low-scoring throughout.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals have been scarce, especially for Burgos away, making a draw half likely.
- Both teams have low second-half scoring averages.
- Burgos away second-half goals for: 0.2.
- Las Palmas home second-half goals for: 0.25.
- Burgos overall second-half goals against: 0.09.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Las Palmas have home advantage and slightly better overall league position, but Burgos are defensively strong and historically avoid defeat in this fixture. Low-scoring head-to-heads and Burgos's defensive away record point to a tight match.
- Las Palmas league record: 3W-1D-1L; home record 1W-1D-0L with 2 goals scored and 1 conceded.
- Burgos league away record: 0W-1D-1L with 0 goals scored and 1 conceded.
- Three of the last five head-to-head meetings ended 0-0.
- Burgos have drawn 5 of 11 league matches; Las Palmas have drawn 3 of 10.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostLas Palmas or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Las Palmas have slightly more first-half initiative at home, but goals before half-time are rare. Both teams start cautiously and first-half goals have been scarce in this fixture.
- Las Palmas home first-half goals for: 0.5 per game; against: 0.0.
- Burgos away first-half goals for: 0.4; against: 0.2.
- Las Palmas home first-half goals for: 0.5; against: 0.0.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonLas Palmas or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals0 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams have low-scoring home and away records, and recent head-to-heads have been very tight.
- Last five head-to-heads produced no more than two goals in any match.
- Burgos away league record: 0 goals scored and 1 conceded in 2 matches.
- Las Palmas home league record: 2 goals scored and 1 conceded in 2 matches.
- Combined overall averages: Las Palmas 2.4 total goals per game; Burgos 1.82.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Burgos's away defence and the recent head-to-head pattern make a clean sheet for at least one side likely.
- Last five head-to-heads: no both teams scored.
- Burgos away split: 0 both teams scored in 5 matches, with 4 clean sheets.
- Las Palmas home split: 2 both teams scored in 4 matches.
- Burgos overall clean sheets: 6 in 11 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos have produced very little away from home and rarely score more than once.
- Burgos have scored 2 goals in 5 away matches.
- Burgos league away record: 0 goals in 2 matches.
- Burgos overall average goals for: 1.18 per game.
- Last three head-to-heads: Burgos scored 0 goals.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBurgos under 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burgos's away defence is strong and Las Palmas have not scored against them in recent meetings.
- Burgos away split: 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Las Palmas have failed to score in the last three head-to-heads.
- Burgos overall clean sheets: 6 in 11 matches.
- Las Palmas home split: 2 goals scored in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLas Palmas not to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and recent meetings have been tight.
- Las Palmas home first-half goals for: 0.5; against: 0.0.
- Burgos away first-half goals for: 0.4; against: 0.2.
- Last five head-to-heads include three 0-0 draws.
- Both teams' first-half averages are low.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are low, particularly for Burgos away.
- Las Palmas home second-half goals for: 0.25; against: 0.75.
- Burgos away second-half goals for: 0.2; against: 0.0.
- Burgos overall second-half goals against: 0.09.
- Las Palmas overall second-half goals for: 0.7.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance76%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The home and away splits are just below the line and the fixture has often been tight.
- Las Palmas home corners for: 3.5; against: 4.5.
- Burgos away corners for: 3.4; against: 5.4.
- Both teams average around 8-9 total corners overall.
- A recent Las Palmas match had 16 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced high shot volumes, especially with Burgos conceding chances.
- Las Palmas overall shots for: 10.4; against: 12.3.
- Burgos overall shots for: 11.1; against: 14.3.
- Burgos recent matches average over 26 total shots.
- Las Palmas recent matches average over 23 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 21.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches suggest enough shots on target to clear the line.
- Las Palmas overall shots on target for: 3.7; against: 3.9.
- Burgos overall shots on target for: 3.3; against: 3.9.
- Burgos recent matches average about 7.5 total shots on target.
- Las Palmas recent matches average about 7.8 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up cards, and Burgos's recent games have been fairly physical.
- Las Palmas overall cards: 1.0 yellow and 0.33 red per game.
- Burgos overall cards: 2.27 yellow and 0.33 red per game.
- Burgos recent matches average over 4 total cards.
- Las Palmas recent matches average 3.5 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%