Keflavik2Fram Reykjavik2

HT 0–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges6–275%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 00:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Fram's push for second place and dominant away record make Draw or Fram double chance at 1.38 the top value play (+3.5 points), with Fram over 1.5 away goals at 1.55 a strong secondary edge (+7 points).

Avoid the short-priced overs and BTTS Yes, where the market has already priced in the high-scoring profile.

Context

Keflavik are sixth in the Úrvalsdeild with 28 points from 22 games, and their recent form reads LLLWW.
The three defeats came against Vikingur Reykjavik, Valur Reykjavik and FH hafnarfjordur, with Keflavik conceding four, two and two goals respectively. That is a defence allowing multiple goals per game, and it now meets a Fram Reykjavik team averaging 2.4 goals per match. The two wins earlier in that run show Keflavik can still take points, but the recent pattern points to a side struggling to keep scores down.
- Keflavik lost 1-4 away to Vikingur Reykjavik on 14 September 2026.
- Keflavik lost 1-2 at home to Valur Reykjavik on 5 September 2026.
- Keflavik lost 1-2 away to FH hafnarfjordur on 30 August 2026.
- Keflavik's league form over the last five matches is LLLWW.
Fram Reykjavik are second in the Úrvalsdeild with 45 points from 22 games, and their recent form reads LDDWW.
Their 56 league goals are the second-highest in the division, but 42 conceded is the most among the top four. Recent matches show both sides of that: a 4-3 win at Breidablik on 24 August 2026 and a 2-5 home defeat to KR Reykjavik on 10 August 2026. Against a Keflavik side that has conceded at least twice in each of its last three league games, Fram's attack is likely to find chances, but their own defence gives Keflavik a route into the match.
- Fram Reykjavik average 2.4 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per league match this season.
- Fram won 4-3 away to Breidablik on 24 August 2026.
- Fram lost 2-5 at home to KR Reykjavik on 10 August 2026.
- Fram have scored 56 and conceded 42 in 22 league games.
Fram Reykjavik's away record in the Úrvalsdeild is seven wins, three draws and one defeat from eleven matches.
That away form includes a 4-3 win at Breidablik on 24 August 2026 and a 2-1 win at IBV Vestmannaeyjar on 1 August 2026. Keflavik's home record is five wins, three draws and three defeats, so this is not a straightforward away trip, but Fram's ability to take points on the road is a clear factor in how the match may be approached.
- Fram Reykjavik have 7 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat in 11 away league games this season.
- Fram won 4-3 away to Breidablik on 24 August 2026.
- Fram won 2-1 away to IBV Vestmannaeyjar on 1 August 2026.
Keflavík are sixth in the upper-section table on 28 points from 23 matches, while Fram are third on 45 points from the same number of games. This fixture is part of the Efri hluti run-in, with three further rounds to follow.
A Fram win would move them above KR into second place before the two teams meet directly on 10 October, so the table position gives this match a defined late-season consequence. The gap of 17 points between the sides also frames Keflavík as the lower-ranked host in the same section, though the standings alone do not establish how either team will set up or perform on the day.
- KSÍ list Keflavík versus Fram at 16:00 on 20 September at HS Orku völlurinn in Besta deild karla 2026 – Efri hluti.
- KSÍ's current upper-section table lists KR second on 47 points, Fram third on 45 and Keflavík sixth on 28, with all three having played 23 matches.
- The upper-section schedule has three further rounds after this fixture, including Fram versus KR on 10 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 00:24 · Europe/BucharestKSÍ: Besta deild karla 2026 – Efri hlutiwww.ksi.is · 19 Sep 2026Fótbolti.net: round 23 and 24 kick-off timeswww.fotbolti.net · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fram's superior away record and 17-point table gap over Keflavik, plus a concrete late-season incentive to chase second place, outweigh Keflavik's modest home edge.
- Fram sit 2nd on 45 pts (13W-6D-3L, 56 GF) vs Keflavik 6th on 28 pts (8W-4D-10L, 33 GF) after 22 rounds
- Fram away record 7W-3D-1L in 11, scoring 25 and conceding 18
- Keflavik last 5 league games: L-L-L-W-W, conceding 2+ in three of them; season goalsAgainst 38
- H2H last 5: two draws, Fram won 3-1 at home in Apr 2026, Keflavik won 4-3 in Mar 2026 League Cup
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFram ReykjavikEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fram's low loss rate and strong away split make a non-loss highly likely, with Keflavik's leaky defence and poor recent run limiting their win chance.
- Fram have lost only 3 of 22 league matches (13W-6D) and just 1 of 11 away (7W-3D-1L)
- Keflavik form L-L-L-W-W with 38 goals conceded in 22 games and 2+ conceded in 4 of last 5
- H2H last 5 produced 2 draws plus 3 decisive results, none decided by more than 2 goals
- Fram first-half profile: leading at HT in 53% of matches vs Keflavik's 33%
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Fram ReykjavikEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fram's superior first-half scoring and lead-at-break frequency give them the edge to be ahead at the interval.
- Fram leading at half-time in 53% of matches vs Keflavik's 33%
- Fram average 1.6 first-half goals scored; Keflavik average 0.9 first-half goals conceded
- Keflavik trailed at half-time in 40% of matches
- Fram scored 2+ first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFram ReykjavikEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fram's stronger overall scoring output and Keflavik's late-game defensive lapses favour Fram in the second half.
- Fram scored 3+ second-half-inclusive goals in 6 of last 15 matches
- Keflavik conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches
- Fram away record 7W-3D-1L with 25 goals in 11 away games
- Keflavik home record 5W-3D-3L but 13 conceded at home
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFram ReykjavikEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fram rarely trail at the break while Keflavik frequently do, making a Fram-or-draw half-time outcome the strong side.
- Fram leading at half-time in 53% of matches, trailing in only 20%
- Keflavik trailing at half-time in 40% of matches
- Fram first-half goals conceded average 1.1 vs Keflavik's 0.9 scored
- Fram's last 5 half-time results: L, D, D, W, W
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Fram ReykjavikEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fram's habit of leading at the break and converting strong starts into wins makes a Fram/Fram double plausible, though not dominant.
- Fram leading at half-time in 53% of matches and winning 13 of 22 overall
- Keflavik trailed at half-time in 40% and lost 10 of 22
- Fram away record 7W-3D-1L
- Keflavik form L-L-L-W-W with heavy recent defeats
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFram Reykjavik / Fram ReykjavikEstimated chance30%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' high combined goal averages and Fram's recent high-scoring matches point to an open game clearing 2.5 goals.
- Fram average 2.4 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match across last 15
- Keflavik average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded per match across last 15
- Fram's last 5 matches produced 4, 5, 7, 3 and 7 total goals
- H2H last 5 meetings: 2, 4, 7, 4 and 0 total goals, with 4 of 5 at 2+ goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score regularly and concede regularly, and the H2H pattern shows both teams finding the net in most recent meetings.
- Keflavik scored in 13 of their last 15 matches, including each of the last 5
- Fram scored in 13 of their last 15 matches and in 10 of 11 away games (25 goals)
- Keflavik conceded in 13 of last 15; Fram conceded in 12 of last 15
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fram's strong first-half scoring rate and habit of leading at the break, combined with Keflavik's tendency to trail early, support first-half goals.
- Fram average 1.6 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded across last 15
- Keflavik average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded across last 15
- Fram led at half-time in 53% of matches; Keflavik trailed at half-time in 40%
- Fram's last 5 first-half scores: 0-2, 1-1, 1-1, 4-1, 2-1
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fram's high away scoring rate against a Keflavik side conceding regularly makes 2+ away goals likely.
- Fram scored 25 goals in 11 away games (2.27 per away match)
- Fram scored 2+ in 9 of their last 15 matches
- Keflavik conceded 13 at home in 11 games and 2+ in 4 of last 5
- H2H: Fram scored 3, 1 and 3 in the last three meetings
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFram Reykjavik over 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Keflavik's consistent scoring record at home and Fram's regular concession rate make at least one home goal highly probable.
- Keflavik scored in 13 of their last 15 matches, including each of the last 5
- Keflavik scored 18 goals in 11 home games
- Fram conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches
- H2H: Keflavik scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonKeflavik over 0.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fram's poor clean-sheet record and Keflavik's reliable scoring make a Fram shutout unlikely.
- Keflavik scored in each of their last 5 matches and 13 of last 15
- Fram kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 15 matches
- Fram conceded in 12 of last 15, including 3, 2, 2, 5 and 3 in recent games
- H2H: Keflavik scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKeflavik to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fram's low clean-sheet frequency combined with Keflavik's consistent scoring makes an away win-to-nil very unlikely.
- Fram kept only 2 clean sheets in last 15 matches
- Keflavik scored in 13 of last 15 and in all of the last 5
- Fram conceded 18 goals in 11 away games
- H2H: Keflavik scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance82%