Deportivo Pasto1Once Caldas0

HT 0–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 01:15 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 18–16On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 05:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Once Caldas' unbeaten away profile and dominant head-to-head record make the draw-or-away double chance the safest anchor, with small value edges on BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals.

Avoid the short first-half double chance (1.25) and the outright away win (2.30), where the prices leave no cushion.

Context

Deportivo Pasto sit 19th in the Clausura table with 5 points from 9 games, and their home record in this phase is four defeats from four with 2 goals scored and 7 conceded.
The four home losses are the relevant sample because they come from the current Clausura phase rather than an older campaign, and they show Pasto have not turned their own ground into points. The limit is that three of those defeats were by a single goal, so the gap is small rather than a collapse. Once Caldas arrive with an away record of one win, three draws and one loss in the Clausura, which gives them a reasonable base to avoid defeat here.
- Deportivo Pasto's Clausura home record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 4 games, with 2 goals scored and 7 conceded.
- Pasto's overall Clausura record is 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9 games, leaving them 19th on 5 points.
- Once Caldas' Clausura away record is 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss from 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded.
Once Caldas finished the Apertura 5th on 33 points with a record of 8 wins, 9 draws and 2 losses, and their away record was 2 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 9 games.
The draw-heavy profile matters because it points to a team that rarely loses but also rarely turns matches into wins, which shapes how this game may unfold. The limit is that this is Apertura data, and their Clausura form of 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses is more mixed. Pasto's own Clausura form of 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses gives Once Caldas a reasonable chance to avoid defeat without necessarily winning.
- Once Caldas' Apertura record was 8 wins, 9 draws and 2 losses from 19 games, with 31 goals scored and 22 conceded.
- Their Apertura away record was 2 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 9 games, with 11 goals scored and 9 conceded.
- In the Clausura, Once Caldas have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9 games, sitting 9th on 12 points.
Jonathan René Rosero is Deportivo Pasto's interim head coach, appointed on 24 August with Wilson Morelo assisting, and he was still directing the team for the 15 September league match at América.
Because the interim staff took over only in late August, Pasto's selection and defensive organisation have had little time to settle, so the home side's setup for this match carries more uncertainty than a stable coaching regime would. The claim does not establish which players or units change, only that continuity in selection and defensive organisation is less established.
- On 24 August, Deportivo Pasto announced Jonathan René Rosero as interim manager of its professional men’s team, assisted by Wilson Morelo.
- Pasto’s official squad announcement for the 15 September league match at América was issued with Rosero in charge.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 05:38 · Europe/BucharestEl Espectadorwww.elespectador.com · 25 Aug 2026El Deportivoeldeportivo.com.co · 14 Sep 2026
The last five meetings between Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas date from May 2025 to March 2026, with Once Caldas scoring in all five.
The repeated scoring is the useful part of this head-to-head record, because it shows Once Caldas have found a way through Pasto's defence across multiple matches and venues. The limit is that four of those five games were played at Once Caldas' ground, so the sample is not evenly split. Pasto did win the most recent meeting at their own ground 2-1 in May 2025, which is the one home example in this run.
- Once Caldas beat Deportivo Pasto 4-2 at home on 13 March 2026 in Primera A.
- Once Caldas beat Deportivo Pasto 1-0 at home on 9 November 2025 in Primera A.
- Deportivo Pasto beat Once Caldas 2-1 at home on 18 May 2025 in Primera A, the only Pasto home win in the last five meetings.

BetBugs edges

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Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Once Caldas' unbeaten away profile and dominant recent H2H record (4 wins in 5, including two heavy wins at Pasto) outweigh Pasto's poor home Clausura form and leaky defence.
- Once Caldas away record 2026: 2W-6D-1L, 11 goals for / 9 against in 9 away games
- Deportivo Pasto last 15: 1.0 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game; only 1 win in last 5 (WDLDL)
- H2H last 5: Once Caldas won 4 of 5, including 4-2 and 4-1 in Pasto's own ground
- Pasto Clausura home record: 0W-0D-4L, 2 goals for / 7 against in 4 home games
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOnce CaldasEstimated chance44%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Once Caldas' strong away resilience (one away loss all season) plus Pasto's defensive frailty and poor home Clausura record make the draw-or-away double chance the safest result play.
- Once Caldas away 2026: only 1 defeat in 9 away matches (2W-6D-1L)
- Once Caldas last 15: 0.9 goals conceded per game, 6.5 shots on target per game
- Pasto last 15: 1.8 goals conceded per game, 1.3 red cards per game
- H2H last 5: Once Caldas avoided defeat in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancelostOnce Caldas or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently reach half-time level (Pasto 6 draws, Once Caldas 7 draws in last 15), and neither side dominates the opening period.
- Pasto half-time results last 15: 6 draws, 7 losses, 2 wins
- Once Caldas half-time results last 15: 7 draws, 5 losses, 3 wins
- Pasto leading at half-time only 13% of matches; Once Caldas 33%
- Once Caldas first-half goals conceded 0.5 per game, Pasto 0.9
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Once Caldas' superior second-half scoring and Pasto's tendency to concede late give the visitors the edge in the closing period.
- Once Caldas last 15: 1.5 goals per game with strong second-half output (5-1, 3-0 wins)
- Pasto last 15: 1.8 goals conceded per game, with late collapses (3-4, 2-3, 1-4)
- Pasto trailing at half-time 47% of matches, often chasing games late
- Once Caldas away record: 11 goals in 9 away games, many after the break
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostOnce CaldasEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto rarely lead at half-time and Once Caldas are solid defensively before the break, making draw-or-away the strong first-half double chance.
- Pasto half-time results last 15: only 2 wins at the break
- Once Caldas half-time results last 15: 3 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses
- Pasto leading at half-time just 13% of matches
- Once Caldas first-half goals conceded only 0.5 per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Once CaldasEstimated chance68%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns across the last 15 matches, and four of the last five H2H meetings produced goals for both teams.
- Pasto last 15: 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, scoring in 8 of last 15
- Once Caldas last 15: 1.5 goals scored per game, conceding in 9 of last 15
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings (4-2, 1-0, 4-0, 2-1, 2-1)
- Pasto home Clausura: 2 goals scored in 4 home games, but 7 conceded
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto's high-conceding games and the historically goal-heavy H2H series (four of five over 2.5) support an over line despite Once Caldas' tighter defensive numbers.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 meetings went over 2.5 goals (4-2, 1-0, 4-0, 2-1, 2-1)
- Pasto last 15: 2.8 total goals per game average (1.0 for + 1.8 against)
- Once Caldas last 15: 2.4 total goals per game average (1.5 for + 0.9 against)
- Pasto recent matches: 4-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-4 all produced 3+ goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average under one first-half goal each and Once Caldas concede very little before the break, pointing to a low-scoring opening period.
- Pasto last 15: 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game
- Once Caldas last 15: 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Pasto trailing at half-time in 47% of matches, leading only 13%
- Once Caldas first-half goals conceded average just 0.5 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' goal distribution skews to the second half, and Pasto's late-game defensive breakdowns make a higher-scoring second period likely.
- Pasto last 15: 1.8 goals conceded per game, with many second-half collapses (4-1, 3-4, 2-3)
- Once Caldas last 15: 1.5 goals scored per game, often adding goals after the break (5-1, 3-0)
- H2H last 5: second-half goals decided 4-2 and 2-1 results
- Pasto first-half goals 0.7 vs total 1.0, indicating second-half scoring share
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto have scored in most recent matches and found the net in four of the last five H2H meetings, making an Once Caldas away clean sheet unlikely.
- Pasto last 15: scored in 8 of 15 matches, 1.0 goals per game
- Pasto home Clausura: 2 goals in 4 home games, but 25 shots in one home match vs Pereira
- Once Caldas away 2026: 9 goals conceded in 9 away games, only 1 clean sheet trend
- H2H last 5: Pasto scored in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDeportivo Pasto to scoreEstimated chance62%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages above 10 per game and Once Caldas' high recent corner counts support an over line on total corners.
- Once Caldas last 15: 5.5 corners per game average
- Pasto last 15: 4.7 corners per game average
- Combined average of 10.2 corners per game across both teams
- Once Caldas recent matches: 8, 11, 9 corners in individual games
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto's very high card averages (3.5 yellows and 1.3 reds per game) plus a physical H2H series make an over on total cards likely.
- Pasto last 15: 3.5 yellow cards and 1.3 red cards per game average
- Pasto recent matches: 7 yellows + 2 reds vs Cucuta, 4 yellows + 2 reds vs Llaneros
- Once Caldas last 15: 2.3 yellow cards per game average
- H2H last 5: heated series with multiple cards in recent meetings
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto average just over 10 shots per game and have produced high-volume home shooting displays, supporting an over on their total shots.
- Pasto last 15: 10.1 shots per game average
- Pasto home matches: 25 shots vs Pereira, 10 vs Deportivo Cali, 9 vs Tolima
- Once Caldas away: opponents averaged 12+ shots in several away games
- Pasto home Clausura: 2 goals from limited but present chances
BetBugs · Home Shots TotalwonDeportivo Pasto over 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Once Caldas' high shot-on-target volume (6.5 per game) against a Pasto defence conceding 1.8 goals per game supports an over on their shots on target.
- Once Caldas last 15: 6.5 shots on target per game average
- Once Caldas recent matches: 9, 8, 7, 7 shots on target in individual games
- Pasto last 15: 3.3 shots on target per game, but concede 1.8 goals per game
- Once Caldas away: 11 goals in 9 away games, averaging over 1 goal per away match
BetBugs · Away Shots on Target TotalwonOnce Caldas over 4.5Estimated chance58%