Stuttgart0Borussia Dortmund1

HT 0–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 12–13On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 05:32 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is on 'Draw or Borussia Dortmund' in the double chance market at 1.60, with a +9.5-point edge.

Avoid the BTTS Yes market at 1.30, as the odds imply a much higher probability than the model's estimate. Over 3.5 goals is a secondary value option, but Stuttgart's midfield injury uncertainty adds risk.

Context

Dortmund are second in the Bundesliga with nine points from three games. Stuttgart are 14th with three points.
Dortmund's perfect start includes a 3-0 home win over Paderborn and a 3-2 away win at Hoffenheim. Stuttgart lost 2-1 at Hoffenheim and 5-1 at Bayern. The table gap is six points after only three rounds, so Dortmund enter with a clear form advantage.
- Dortmund have won all three Bundesliga matches, scoring 8 and conceding 2.
- Stuttgart have lost two of three, including a 5-1 defeat at Bayern München on 2026-08-28.
- Dortmund beat Hoffenheim 3-2 away on 2026-09-05; Stuttgart lost 2-1 at Hoffenheim on 2026-09-12.
Stuttgart midfielder A. Stiller started the 12 September Bundesliga match at Hoffenheim but was replaced by Yanik Spalt in the 35th minute as an injury substitution. He had started all five recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 388 minutes.
His availability for Dortmund is unresolved, so Stuttgart may need to alter their midfield structure and ball progression options. Without a confirmed replacement plan, the uncertainty is material but the exact change remains unclear.
- Stiller was named in Stuttgart's starting XI for the 12 September Bundesliga match at Hoffenheim.
- Yanik Spalt replaced Stiller in the 35th minute, recorded as an injury substitution.
- A. Stiller started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 388 minutes across 5 appearances.
To watchSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 05:30 · Europe/BucharestFussball Heute match report: Hoffenheim 2-1 Stuttgartwww.fussballheute.de · 12 Sep 2026
Borussia Dortmund defender N. Schlotterbeck started and captained the 3-0 win over Paderborn on 12 September after an 84-day ankle-injury absence. He was substituted after 76 minutes, with the club stating a full 90 minutes is his next target.
His return restores a senior central-defensive option for Dortmund, though his recent workload means full-match readiness is not settled. F. Mané had started in that position in two of the five recent fixtures when Schlotterbeck did not, so the selection choice remains open.
- Dortmund state that Schlotterbeck returned 84 days after suffering an ankle injury and started the 3-0 win over Paderborn as captain.
- He was substituted after 76 minutes; the club reported that playing a full 90 minutes is his next target.
- N. Schlotterbeck started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- F. Mané started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when N. Schlotterbeck did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 05:30 · Europe/BucharestBorussia Dortmund: Nico Schlotterbeck on his comebackwww.bvb.de · 12 Sep 2026
Stuttgart have played one home league match this season, a 4-1 win over 1. FC Köln on 2026-09-04.
That home win showed Stuttgart can score heavily at home, with four goals and 22 shots. However, their away losses to Hoffenheim and Bayern exposed defensive problems, conceding seven goals in two games. This match is at home, where they have been more effective.
- Stuttgart beat 1. FC Köln 4-1 at home on 2026-09-04.
- Stuttgart lost 2-1 at Hoffenheim on 2026-09-12 and 5-1 at Bayern on 2026-08-28.
- Stuttgart's home record this Bundesliga season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Stuttgart have scored in all Bundesliga games, but Dortmund's defensive solidity makes the odds too short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's superior league form and recent H2H dominance, combined with Stuttgart's poor away record, make an away win the most likely single outcome.
- Dortmund are 2nd with 9 points from 3 games (WWW), Stuttgart 14th with 3 points (LWL).
- Dortmund have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including the most recent 2-0 away win in April 2026.
- Stuttgart's away form is poor: 0 wins, 2 losses, 2 goals scored, 7 conceded in Bundesliga this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBorussia DortmundEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's strong form and Stuttgart's inconsistency make a Dortmund win or draw highly likely, with the double chance covering both.
- Dortmund are unbeaten in the league (3 wins), while Stuttgart have lost 2 of 3.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Stuttgart have only won once (5-1 in Sep 2024).
- Stuttgart's home record this season is 1 win from 1, but against weaker opposition (Köln).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Borussia DortmundEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's overall quality may give them an early edge, but Stuttgart's strong first-half scoring at home makes this uncertain.
- Dortmund lead at half-time in 40% of recent matches, Stuttgart in 67% (but against weaker opponents).
- Dortmund's first-half goal difference is +0.5 per game, Stuttgart's +1.0.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Dortmund led at half-time twice, Stuttgart once, and two were level.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBorussia DortmundEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's fitness and depth may allow them to dominate the second half, especially if Stuttgart tire.
- Dortmund have won the second half in 2 of their last 3 Bundesliga games.
- Stuttgart have lost the second half in 2 of their last 3 Bundesliga games.
- Dortmund's superior squad depth often shows late in matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBorussia DortmundEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A level first half followed by a Dortmund win is a plausible pattern given their second-half strength.
- Dortmund have drawn at half-time in 2 of their last 3 Bundesliga games.
- Stuttgart have drawn at half-time in 1 of their last 3 Bundesliga games.
- Dortmund often improve after the break, winning 3 of their last 3 Bundesliga games.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Borussia DortmundEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies, and recent H2H encounters often exceed 2.5 goals, supporting the over.
- Stuttgart's Bundesliga matches average 4.7 total goals (6 scored, 8 conceded in 3 games).
- Dortmund's Bundesliga matches average 3.3 total goals (8 scored, 2 conceded in 3 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3, 6, 3, 6, and 1 goals, averaging 3.8.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's consistent scoring and Dortmund's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Stuttgart have scored in all 3 Bundesliga games this season (6 goals total).
- Dortmund have conceded in 2 of 3 Bundesliga games (2 goals total).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, and H2H first halves have often produced multiple goals, though variance is high.
- Stuttgart average 1.5 first-half goals in recent matches, Dortmund average 1.0.
- Stuttgart's first-half goals conceded average 0.5, Dortmund's 0.5.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, first-half goals were 1, 2, 1, 3, 0 (average 1.4).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves in H2H meetings have been high-scoring, and both teams maintain attacking intent late.
- Stuttgart's recent matches average 1.6 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half goals).
- Dortmund's recent matches average 1.1 second-half goals.
- H2H second-half goals in last 5 meetings: 2, 4, 2, 3, 1 (average 2.4).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, making over 9.5 corners likely.
- Stuttgart average 5.9 corners per game, Dortmund 6.3.
- Combined average corners in their matches: 12.2.
- Recent H2H meetings averaged 10.6 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages suggest a high total, supporting the over.
- Stuttgart average 5.8 shots on target per game, Dortmund 6.2.
- Combined average shots on target: 12.0.
- Both teams have attacking styles that produce shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match intensity and disciplinary records suggest a moderate card count, with over 3.5 cards possible.
- Stuttgart average 1.4 yellow cards per game, Dortmund 1.3.
- Combined average yellow cards: 2.7, but red cards add to total cards.
- Recent H2H meetings have seen multiple cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 36.4% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the edge is below the 5-point threshold for MEDIUM confidence.

Prediction history

Stuttgart has been highly reliable when projected to see over 2.5 goals

Stuttgart's over 2.5 goals projections have been fulfilled in 5 of 6 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 71%, but the actual fulfilment rate was 83%, exceeding expectations. Notably, the current prediction of 60% is below the historical range of 65-78%, suggesting the model is less confident than past evidence would imply.

Recent evidence for Stuttgart6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 May·Bundesliga