Super LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Radnik Surdulica4Partizan Belgrade4

HT 3–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 19–18On targetOn target 8–7CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 04:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Partizan's H2H dominance is fully priced at 1.80 while their LLWLL form and Radnik's unbeaten home block (including a 0-0 vs Crvena Zvezda) argue against backing the favourite.

The only small positive edge is Away Clean Sheet — No at 1.67, while Total Goals Home Under 1.5 at 1.38 is the standout trap with a 14.5-point negative gap.

Context

Partizan Belgrade are a traditional Super Liga club currently in the relegation group, ranked 13th with 7 points from 8 matches. Their recent league form is LLWLL, including a 3-2 home loss to Vojvodina on 13 September 2026.
Partizan's league position and recent results mean they arrive at Radnik needing points rather than able to play with freedom. Their away record of one win, one draw and two defeats in four matches shows they have not been reliable on the road. Radnik, by contrast, have won three and drawn two of five home league games, so Partizan face a team that has been hard to beat at home.
- Partizan are 13th in the Super Liga with 7 points from 8 matches, form LLWLL.
- Partizan lost 3-2 at home to Vojvodina on 13 September 2026 and 2-1 away to FK Crvena Zvezda on 6 September 2026.
- Partizan's away league record this season is one win, one draw and two defeats in four matches.
Radnik Surdulica are 5th in the Super Liga with 13 points from 9 matches. Their home record is three wins and two draws from five games, with seven goals scored and three conceded.
Radnik's home form is the main reason they sit above Partizan in the table. They have not lost at home in the league this season, and their defensive record at home is strong with only three goals conceded in five matches. Partizan's away form has been mixed, so Radnik's home reliability is a significant factor in how this match may unfold.
- Radnik's home league record is three wins and two draws from five matches, with seven goals scored and three conceded.
- Radnik are 5th in the Super Liga with 13 points from 9 matches.
- Radnik's overall form is DDWLW, including a 1-1 draw at Zemun on 14 September 2026.
The most recent meetings between these teams were both played at Radnik's ground. Partizan won 5-0 on 23 May 2026 and 3-2 on 7 February 2026.
Partizan's recent visits to Radnik have produced high-scoring wins, which suggests they have found ways to create and convert chances in this specific away fixture. However, Partizan's current league form is much worse than when those results were recorded, so the head-to-head pattern may not repeat in the same way. Radnik's improved home defensive record this season is a counterweight to that history.
- Partizan won 5-0 at Radnik on 23 May 2026 in the Super Liga.
- Partizan won 3-2 at Radnik on 7 February 2026 in the Super Liga.
- Partizan also won 2-0 at Radnik on 30 August 2025.
Lazar Radojicic is Radnik Surdulica's goalkeeper and has stayed in match duty since replacing the injured Stefan Ranđelović in the 77th minute against Čukarički on 5 September, then making a late save in the 1-1 draw with Zemun on 14 September.
That run of involvement removes the immediate goalkeeping uncertainty Radnik faced earlier in September and points to a settled last line against Partizan. The evidence covers only two recent appearances, so it supports continuity rather than proving a longer-term starting role.
- Lazar Radojicic replaced injured Stefan Ranđelović in the 77th minute against Čukarički on 5 September and saved a stoppage-time penalty.
- Radojicic made a key 89th-minute save in Radnik’s 1-1 draw with Zemun on 14 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 04:49 · Europe/BucharestSportal: Radnik 3-1 Čukaričkisportal.blic.rs · 5 Sep 2026Telegraf: Zemun 1-1 Radnikwww.telegraf.rs · 14 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Partizan Belgrade

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's own 74% estimate sits below the 80% implied price, so this is a fair-to-short price rather than a value edge despite the HIGH confidence tag.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Partizan's high-scoring profile and H2H pattern (four of five meetings over 2.5) point to an open game, but the price already reflects it.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Partizan's leaky defence and Radnik's home scoring make BTTS plausible, but the odds leave no margin.

Away Win to NilwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Partizan's defensive fragility and Radnik's home scoring record make a Partizan win-to-nil unlikely, but the price is already very short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Partizan's clear H2H dominance and superior attacking volume (2.0 goals, 18.7 shots per game) outweigh their poor league position, though Radnik's strong home record and compact block keep this only a medium-confidence call.
- Partizan lead the H2H 4-1 in the last 5 meetings, scoring 3+ goals in three of those wins (2024-2026)
- Radnik are unbeaten at home this season (3W 2D, 7 goals for, 3 against in 5 home games)
- Partizan sit 13th with 7 points from 8 and form LLWLL, but average 2.0 goals and 18.7 shots per match over the last 15
- Radnik average only 1.0 goal and 4.2 shots on target per match, with 44.6% possession
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPartizan BelgradeEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Partizan's H2H edge plus Radnik's high draw rate (4 draws in 9) makes the draw-or-away double chance the safest result-market play, supported by the H2H psychology signal.
- Partizan have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, with the only Radnik win coming at home in Feb 2026
- Radnik have drawn 4 of 9 league games this season and drawn 2 of 5 at home
- Partizan's away record is 1W 1D 2L with 7 goals scored in 4 away games
- Radnik's last 5 matches include three draws (Zemun, Crvena Zvezda, Mladost)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Partizan BelgradeEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both sides and Radnik's cautious home setup make a level half-time score the most likely outcome.
- Radnik have been level at half-time in a majority of recent matches (D in 6 of last 15)
- Partizan have trailed at half-time in 33% of matches and led in only 40%
- Radnik's first-half goal difference is +0.3 per game, Partizan's is 0.0
- Both teams average under 1 first-half goal scored
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Partizan's high-scoring profile and the H2H goal pattern (four of five meetings over 2.5) point to an open game, though Radnik's compact home block is a counterweight.
- Partizan average 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match over the last 15
- Radnik average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded, with 5 goals conceded in two recent heavy defeats
- H2H last 5 meetings produced 5, 5, 2, 3 and 3 goals — four of five went over 2.5
- Partizan's last 5 league games produced 5, 3, 4, 4 and 4 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Partizan's leaky defence (1.4 conceded per game, scoring in 6 of 7 recent league games against them) combined with Radnik's home scoring record makes BTTS a reasonable medium-confidence call.
- Partizan have conceded in 6 of their last 7 league matches, including 3 against Vojvodina and 3 against Mladost
- Radnik scored in 4 of their last 5 home league games
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings
- Radnik average 1.0 goal per game and Partizan concede 1.4 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low first-half scoring averages (0.7 and 0.6) and Radnik's cautious home approach suggest a tight opening period.
- Radnik average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded over the last 15
- Partizan average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- Radnik have led at half-time in only 47% of matches and trailed in 20%
- Partizan have trailed at half-time in 33% of matches, often starting slowly
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' tendency to concede and score more after half-time, plus Partizan's high-scoring profile, supports second-half goals.
- Partizan's matches frequently see second-half goals, with 3 of their last 5 league games producing 3+ total goals
- Radnik conceded 5 goals in two recent matches, with late collapses against Železničar and Levski
- Radnik's first-half goals conceded average is only 0.4, implying most damage comes after the break
- Partizan average 1.4 goals conceded per game, often in the second half
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Partizan's poor defensive record (1.4 conceded per game, one clean sheet in seven) and Radnik's home scoring make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Partizan have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 7 league matches
- Radnik scored in 4 of their last 5 home league games
- Partizan concede 1.4 goals per game over the last 15
- Radnik average 1.0 goal per game, with 7 goals in 5 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRadnik Surdulica to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Radnik's modest scoring rate and defensive home setup, combined with Partizan's away defensive record, suggest Radnik will struggle to score more than one.
- Radnik average 1.0 goal per game over the last 15
- Radnik have scored 7 goals in 5 home league games (1.4 per game)
- Partizan's away record shows 8 goals conceded in 4 away games
- Radnik's compact block limits their own attacking output
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostRadnik Surdulica under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Partizan's defensive fragility and Radnik's home scoring record make a Partizan win-to-nil highly unlikely.
- Partizan have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 7 league matches
- Radnik have scored in 4 of their last 5 home league games
- Partizan concede 1.4 goals per game over the last 15
- Radnik's home record shows 7 goals scored in 5 games
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance78%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Partizan's high corner volume and Radnik's deep block that concedes wide deliveries support an over on total corners.
- Partizan average 5.8 corners per match over the last 15
- Radnik average 3.4 corners per match, with 7 corners in their most recent game
- Partizan's recent matches produced 8, 5, 6, 4, 2, 3, 11 and 10 corners
- Radnik's compact block forces opponents wide, generating crosses and corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots-on-target averages (5.6 + 4.2 = 9.8) comfortably exceed the 7.5 line, supported by both teams' recent match data.
- Partizan average 5.6 shots on target per match over the last 15
- Radnik average 4.2 shots on target per match
- Partizan's recent matches produced 5, 4, 6, 4, 9, 1, 8 and 5 shots on target
- Radnik's recent matches produced 7, 2, 4, 2, 5, 4, 7, 1, 7 and 5 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' high combined card averages (5.9 yellows plus reds) and Radnik's physical, foul-heavy style (16.5 fouls per game) support an over on cards.
- Radnik average 3.2 yellow cards and 0.6 red cards per match over the last 15
- Partizan average 2.7 yellow cards and 0.3 red cards per match
- Radnik's recent matches produced 4, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 5, 2 and 6 yellow cards
- Partizan's recent matches produced 6, 4, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 4 and 1 yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 56% vs our 48% estimate leaves no cushion; the price already reflects H2H dominance while ignoring Partizan's LLWLL form and Radnik's unbeaten home record.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 5W

L5-0FK PartizanvRadnik SurdulicaMay 23, 2026SUP

L2-3Radnik SurdulicavFK PartizanFeb 7, 2026SUP

L2-0FK PartizanvRadnik SurdulicaAug 30, 2025SUP

L0-3Radnik SurdulicavFK PartizanMar 12, 2025CUP

L1-2Radnik SurdulicavFK PartizanFeb 24, 2024SUP

Partizan Belgrade unbeaten in 5 meetingsPartizan Belgrade: 3 clean sheets3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Super Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Radnik Surdulica Promotion - Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Championship Group)	9	3	4	2	10-11	13	DDWLW
13	Partizan Belgrade Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Relegation Group)	8	2	1	5	13-15	7	LLWLL