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Predictions graded

Mladost Lucani3Partizan Belgrade1

HT 2–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 31%–69%ShotsShots 9–22On targetOn target 6–9CornersCorners 0–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Aug 2026, 17:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Partizan are favourites but overpriced at 1.78 (model 45% vs implied 56%), and the double chance at 1.20 offers no value.

Avoid over 2.5 goals, BTTS, and first-half over 0.5 goals due to negative edges; the only marginal positive is first-half draw at 2.25, but it's a coin flip. No corner, shots, or cards markets are available, so those predictions cannot be bet.

Context

Partizan away record this season: 1W-1D-0L, 5 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Partizan conceded in 3 of 4 league matches this season.
- Partizan's last away league match was a 2-2 draw at Zemun.
Mladost home record this season: 0W-2D-0L, 2 goals scored, 2 conceded.
- Mladost have drawn 4 of 5 league matches this season.
- Mladost's last home match was a 0-0 draw against Novi Pazar.
Partizan won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings, scoring 12 and conceding 1 before the 1-1 draw in March 2026.
- Last H2H (21 Mar 2026) ended 1-1 at Mladost.
- Overall H2H: Partizan have 33 wins from 42 meetings, with a 104–21 aggregate goal edge.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Partizan Belgrade

1.20fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Mladost have drawn 4 of 5 league matches and Partizan are unbeaten away, making a Partizan win or draw highly likely.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Partizan Belgrade

1.78fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

H2H psychology strongly favors Partizan, and their away form is solid, while Mladost have drawn all home games so far.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology strongly favors Partizan, and their away form is solid, while Mladost have drawn all home games so far.
- Partizan won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings, scoring 12 and conceding 1 before the 1-1 draw in March 2026.
- Partizan away record this season: 1W-1D-0L, 5 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Mladost home record this season: 0W-2D-0L, 2 goals scored, 2 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPartizan BelgradeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mladost's draw-heavy form and Partizan's unbeaten away record make a Partizan win or draw highly likely.
- Mladost have drawn 4 of 5 league matches this season.
- Partizan have not lost away this season (1W-1D).
- Last H2H ended 1-1.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Partizan BelgradeEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are evenly matched in first halves, making a draw at half-time plausible.
- Mladost led at half-time in 40% of matches, trailed in 13%.
- Partizan led at half-time in 47%, trailed in 27%.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages (0.7 for, 0.3-0.4 against).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Partizan win is a plausible scenario given Partizan's second-half strength.
- Partizan often start slow but finish strong (second-half goal differential +0.4).
- Mladost have drawn 4 of 5 matches, often after level first halves.
- H2H last meeting was 1-1 at full time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Partizan BelgradeEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Partizan's attacking output and historical H2H goal totals support over 2.5 goals.
- Partizan average 2.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Mladost average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and Partizan's defense has been leaky on the road.
- Mladost scored in 4 of 5 league matches.
- Partizan conceded in 3 of 4 league matches.
- Last H2H ended 1-1 with both scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals very likely.
- Mladost average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Partizan average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.4 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Partizan's second-half scoring and Mladost's tendency to concede later suggest over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Partizan score 1.4 goals per second half on average (2.1 total - 0.7 first half).
- Mladost concede 0.3 goals per second half on average (0.7 total - 0.4 first half).
- H2H matches often open up in second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Partizan's high corner count and Mladost's tendency to concede corners support over 9.5 total corners.
- Partizan average 6.1 corners per match, Mladost 3.4.
- Partizan's opponents average 4.3 corners, Mladost's opponents 6.7.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is around 10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Partizan's attacking volume and Mladost's defensive stats suggest over 8.5 shots on target.
- Partizan average 6 shots on target per match, Mladost 3.4.
- Partizan's opponents average 4.3 shots on target, Mladost's opponents 5.3.
- Combined average shots on target is around 9.5.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the competitive nature of the match could lead to over 4.5 cards.
- Mladost average 2.1 yellow cards per match, Partizan 2.3.
- Mladost's opponents average 2.3 yellow cards, Partizan's opponents 2.9.
- Combined average cards in matches involving these teams is around 4.8.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 83% leaves no cushion vs our 75% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

D1-1Mladost LucanivFK PartizanMar 21, 2026SUP

L3-0FK PartizanvMladost LucaniOct 24, 2025SUP

L0-4Mladost LucanivFK PartizanMay 17, 2025SUP

L2-0FK PartizanvMladost LucaniFeb 26, 2025SUP

L1-3Mladost LucanivFK PartizanSep 29, 2024SUP

Partizan Belgrade unbeaten in 5 meetingsPartizan Belgrade: 3 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Super Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Mladost Lucani Promotion - Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Championship Group)	5	1	4	0	4-3	7	WDDDD
11	Partizan Belgrade Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Relegation Group)	4	1	1	2	6-6	4	LLWD

3pt gap between teamsPartizan Belgrade in relegation zone

Recent Form

Mladost Lucani

W1-0ZemunAug 16SUP

D2-2CukarickiAug 9SUP

D0-0Železničar PančevoAug 3SUP

D0-0Novi PazarJul 26SUP

D1-1Radnik SurdulicaJul 19SUP

W2-1MacvaJul 5FRI

W1-0IMT Novi BeogradJul 1FRI

W3-1Novi PazarJun 28FRI

W1-0PetrovacJun 22FRI

W1-0NapredakMay 24SUP

W4-2JavorMay 16SUP

L0-1Radnicki NISMay 10SUP

W2-1FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVMay 3SUP

W2-1TSC Backa TopolaApr 27SUP

D0-0Radnicki 1923Apr 23SUP

Partizan Belgrade

L1-3GetafeAug 20UEF

L0-1Radnicki 1923Aug 16SUP

W2-1FK Tobol KostanayAug 13UEF

W3-0FK Tobol KostanayAug 6UEF

L1-2IMT Novi BeogradAug 2SUP

W1-0UNA StrassenJul 30UEF

W3-1MacvaJul 26SUP

W4-0UNA StrassenJul 23UEF

D2-2ZemunJul 18SUP

W4-1NaftaJul 11FRI

D2-2NK Lokomotiva ZagrebJul 10FRI

W1-0Neftchi BakuJul 6FRI

W2-1AluminijJul 2FRI

L0-3CSKA 1948Jun 29FRI

W5-0Radnik SurdulicaMay 23SUP

Squad & Injuries

Mladost Lucani

28 available

Attackers3

Midfielders9

Defenders13

Goalkeeper3

Partizan Belgrade

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw or Partizan Belgrade

Partizan Belgrade

Over 0.5

Over 2.5

Yes

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Draw or Partizan Belgrade

Partizan Belgrade

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Mladost Lucani

Partizan Belgrade

Squad & Injuries

Mladost Lucani

Partizan Belgrade