Gualaceo0LDU Portoviejo0

HT 0–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 20:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–469%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Sep 2026, 23:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Gualaceo's home solidity and Portoviejo's weak away attack (0.64 goals per away game) plus a confirmed short Copa Ecuador turnaround point to a low-scoring home-controlled match.

The likely result is a Gualaceo win or draw, but the market has over-priced it (home win 1.67 implies 60% vs our 52%), so the only positive edge is Portoviejo Under 1.5 away goals at 1.48.

Context

LDU Portoviejo are ninth in Liga Pro Serie B with 27 points from 22 games, and they travel to Gualaceo on 19 September 2026.
Their 11 away league matches have produced one win, two draws and eight defeats, with seven goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have six wins, four draws and one loss. That split is large enough that the venue itself is a real factor here, though the away sample also includes matches against stronger teams, so it does not by itself decide this game.
- LDU Portoviejo away record in Liga Pro Serie B 2026: 1 win, 2 draws, 8 defeats in 11 games, 7 goals scored and 18 conceded.
- LDU Portoviejo home record in the same league: 6 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat in 11 games, 10 scored and 4 conceded.
- Their overall record is 7 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats from 22 games, with a goal difference of -5.
Gualaceo are seventh in Liga Pro Serie B with 29 points from 22 games and host LDU Portoviejo on 19 September 2026.
They beat Cumbayá 1-0 away on 10 September 2026, El Nacional 3-0 at home on 29 August 2026 and Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 3-0 away on 20 August 2026. Those three results came with no goals conceded, and Gualaceo have conceded only 16 goals in 22 league games this season. The run is short, so it should be read as current form rather than proof of a permanent level.
- Gualaceo beat Cumbayá 1-0 away on 10 September 2026 in Liga Pro Serie B.
- Gualaceo beat El Nacional 3-0 at home on 29 August 2026 and Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 3-0 away on 20 August 2026.
- Gualaceo have conceded 16 goals in 22 league games, the joint-best defensive record among the teams outside the top four.
LDU Portoviejo average 0.7 goals per game in Liga Pro Serie B 2026 and have scored 17 in 22 matches.
In 11 away league games they have scored seven goals, an average of about 0.6 per match, while conceding 18. Their overall average of 0.7 goals per game is the lowest among the top nine teams in the table. That makes a low-scoring away performance the most likely pattern, although a single early goal could change how the match is played.
- LDU Portoviejo average 0.7 goals per game in Liga Pro Serie B 2026.
- They have scored 7 goals in 11 away league games and conceded 18.
- Their season total is 17 goals scored and 22 conceded in 22 matches.
LDU Portoviejo confirmed a Copa Ecuador defeat at full time on 17 September and then published a starting eleven for the 19 September matchday at Gualaceo, leaving a short interval between the two fixtures.
The midweek cup match and the away trip come close together, so the visitors have less recovery and preparation time than a normal league week would allow. The claim does not establish any named absence or confirm how the minutes were distributed, so the effect on freshness and readiness remains a plausible factor rather than a settled one.
- LDU Portoviejo’s official account confirmed a Copa Ecuador defeat at full time on 17 September.
- The club’s 19 September matchday post states that its starting eleven was beginning against Gualaceo.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Sep 2026, 23:26 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Gualaceo

1.67fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

The market has already priced Gualaceo as a clear favourite at 1.67, which is shorter than our 52% estimate justifies, so the home win offers no value despite the strong home/away split.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gualaceo's strong home split and recent defensive form, combined with Portoviejo's poor away record (1 win in 11) and the confirmed short Copa Ecuador turnaround, favour the home side.
- Gualaceo home record 2026: 5W-3D-3L, 10 goals for / 6 against in 11 home matches
- LDU Portoviejo away record 2026: 1W-2D-8L, 7 goals for / 18 against in 11 away matches
- H2H last 5: Gualaceo won the two 2026 meetings (2-0 at home, 1-0 away); Portoviejo's only win was 2021
- Gualaceo last 5 league matches: 3W-1D-1L, conceding just 2 goals
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGualaceoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gualaceo's home solidity and Portoviejo's weak away profile make a home win or draw the dominant combined outcome.
- Gualaceo home: 5W-3D-3L (only 3 home defeats in 11)
- LDU Portoviejo away: 1W-2D-8L, 18 goals conceded in 11 away games
- H2H 2026: Gualaceo won both meetings without conceding
- Gualaceo last 5: 3W-1D-1L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGualaceo or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring and low HT lead rates for both sides make a level half-time the most likely single outcome.
- Gualaceo HT result: 33% leading, 20% trailing, remainder level
- LDU Portoviejo HT result: 20% leading, 20% trailing, remainder level
- Gualaceo first-half goals 0.5 per match, Portoviejo 0.3
- Both teams average under 0.5 first-half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gualaceo rarely trails at the break and Portoviejo rarely leads, making a home-or-level half-time the strong combined outcome.
- Gualaceo trailing at HT in only 20% of matches
- LDU Portoviejo leading at HT in only 20% of matches
- Gualaceo first-half goals conceded 0.3 per match
- Portoviejo first-half goals 0.3 per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGualaceo or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gualaceo's home strength and Portoviejo's away weakness give a plausible home-lead-to-home-win path, though the low HT lead rate caps confidence.
- Gualaceo leading at HT in 33% of matches
- Gualaceo home record 5W-3D-3L
- LDU Portoviejo away record 1W-2D-8L
- H2H 2026: Gualaceo won both meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostGualaceo/GualaceoEstimated chance30%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low scoring averages and Portoviejo's especially poor away goal output point to a low-total game.
- Gualaceo average goals for 1.1, conceded 0.7 per match over last 15
- LDU Portoviejo average goals for 0.7, conceded 0.7 per match over last 15
- Portoviejo away: 7 goals scored in 11 away matches (0.64 per game)
- H2H 2026 meetings produced 2 and 1 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Portoviejo's low away scoring and Gualaceo's solid home defence make a clean sheet for at least one side likely.
- Gualaceo conceded 0.7 goals per match over last 15
- LDU Portoviejo scored 0.7 goals per match over last 15
- Portoviejo away: 7 goals in 11 away matches
- H2H 2026: both meetings ended with one team failing to score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gualaceo's strong home defensive record and Portoviejo's weak away attack give a reasonable chance of a home clean sheet.
- Gualaceo conceded 0.7 goals per match over last 15
- LDU Portoviejo scored 0.7 goals per match over last 15
- Portoviejo away: 7 goals in 11 away matches
- Gualaceo home: 6 goals conceded in 11 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLDU Portoviejo not to scoreEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low first-half scoring averages and low HT lead rates suggest a quiet opening period.
- Gualaceo first-half goals average 0.5, conceded 0.3 over last 15
- LDU Portoviejo first-half goals average 0.3, conceded 0.3 over last 15
- Gualaceo leading at HT in only 33% of matches
- Portoviejo leading at HT in only 20% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With most goals for both sides arriving after the break, at least one second-half goal is likely.
- Gualaceo total goals average 1.1 with only 0.5 in first half, implying second-half weighting
- LDU Portoviejo total goals average 0.7 with only 0.3 in first half
- H2H 2026: both meetings had second-half goals
- Both teams' first-half goal share is well below half their match totals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 0.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gualaceo's modest home scoring rate and Portoviejo's decent defensive average make a low home total likely.
- Gualaceo average goals for 1.1 over last 15
- Gualaceo home: 10 goals in 11 home matches (0.91 per game)
- LDU Portoviejo conceded 0.7 per match over last 15
- H2H 2026: Gualaceo scored 2 and 1 in the two meetings
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGualaceo under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portoviejo's very low away scoring output against a solid Gualaceo home defence makes a low away total highly likely.
- LDU Portoviejo average goals for 0.7 over last 15
- Portoviejo away: 7 goals in 11 away matches (0.64 per game)
- Gualaceo conceded 0.7 per match over last 15
- Gualaceo home: 6 goals conceded in 11 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonLDU Portoviejo under 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gualaceo's home clean-sheet tendency and Portoviejo's weak away attack make a home win without conceding plausible but not dominant.
- Gualaceo home: 6 goals conceded in 11 home matches
- LDU Portoviejo away: 7 goals in 11 away matches
- H2H 2026: Gualaceo won 2-0 at home and 1-0 away
- Gualaceo conceded 0.7 per match over last 15
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance32%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 52% estimate; the price already reflects the home/away split and H2H dominance.

Prediction history

Gualaceo's Under 2.5 projections have matched in 5 of 7 recent matches, with home and away splits nearly even.

Gualaceo's Under 2.5 goal projections have fulfilled 5 of 7 recent matches, with an average estimated probability of 64.3% and 4.5 expected fulfillments. The matched and missed probabilities are nearly identical (64% vs 65%), indicating no clear probability-driven pattern in the misses. At home, Gualaceo has fulfilled 3 of 4 Under 2.5 projections, while away it has fulfilled 2 of 3. The current 62% probability sits within the historical range of 60% to 70%.

Recent evidence for Gualaceo7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Liga Pro Serie B