Grazer AK2Austria Vienna2

HT 1–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 13–11On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 2–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 21:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Austria Vienna are the value pick to win at 2.75 (42% model probability vs 36% implied), with a small edge on the double chance.

The Over 2.5 goals line is also worth considering, but avoid the first-half goals market where the odds are too short.

Context

Grazer AK sit 7th in the Bundesliga with 7 points from 6 games.
At home they have 1 win and 1 draw, scoring 2 and conceding 1. Away they have lost 3 of 4, conceding 13. This match is at home, so their stronger home defensive record could help them against Austria Vienna.
- Home record: 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, 2 goals for, 1 against.
- Away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses, 2 goals for, 13 against.
Grazer AK head coach Gerald Scheiblehner, appointed on 26 August 2026, is implementing a more intense game model.
Scheiblehner has said the basic structure will change little, but the team will play with more energy, intensity and a clearer plan. That could raise Grazer AK's pressing and collective defensive organisation in this fixture, though the change is recent and its effect is not yet proven.
- GAK officially presented Gerald Scheiblehner as head coach on 26 August 2026.
- Scheiblehner said the basic structure would change little, while the team would play with more energy and intensity and a plan understood by every player.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:36 · Europe/BucharestGAK 1902 — Press conference for Gerald Scheiblehner's appointmentwww.grazerak.at · 26 Aug 2026
Austria Vienna are 8th with 6 points from 6 games.
Their away record is 1 win and 2 losses, with 3 goals scored and 7 conceded. They lost 4-1 at Red Bull Salzburg and 3-0 at Wolfsberger AC. This suggests they may struggle away from home against Grazer AK.
- Away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, 3 goals for, 7 against.
- Lost 4-1 at Red Bull Salzburg on 2026-08-30.
- Lost 3-0 at Wolfsberger AC on 2026-08-02.
Austria Vienna midfielder Daniel Nnodim has been cleared to resume training after a knee scare.
Nnodim avoided a structural injury after his collision against Austria Lustenau, but his return to training is pain-dependent. His availability for this match remains uncertain, and F. Wustinger has started in the same position in two of the four recent fixtures when Nnodim did not start.
- Austria Vienna said Nnodim suffered no structural injury after being substituted with left-knee pain against Austria Lustenau.
- The club identified a knee contusion and said he can return to training depending on pain.
- F. Wustinger started in the same position in 2 of the 4 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Daniel Nnodim did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:36 · Europe/BucharestFK Austria Wien — Entwarnung bei Daniel Nnodimfk-austria.at · 15 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Austria Vienna's superior goal difference and recent H2H edge give them a slight advantage, though Grazer AK's home form and new coach intensity keep it close.
- Austria Vienna average 1.9 goals scored vs Grazer AK's 1.3 in last 15 matches.
- Grazer AK have conceded 1.9 goals per game on average, while Austria Vienna concede 1.1.
- Austria Vienna won 2 of last 5 H2H meetings, with 2 draws and 1 Grazer AK win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAustria ViennaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Austria Vienna's H2H resilience and Grazer AK's modest home record make the away side or draw the safer double chance.
- Grazer AK have only 1 win in last 5 H2H meetings (2 draws, 2 Austria Vienna wins).
- Austria Vienna are unbeaten in 3 of last 5 H2H matches.
- Grazer AK's home record this season: 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses in 2 games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Austria ViennaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half is expected with both teams cautious early, though Austria Vienna's stronger first-half record gives them a slight edge.
- Grazer AK led at half-time in only 33% of recent matches, trailed in 40%.
- Austria Vienna led at half-time in 47% of recent matches, trailed in 20%.
- In last 5 H2H, half-time results: 2 draws, 2 Austria Vienna leads, 1 Grazer AK lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Austria Vienna win is a plausible scenario given their second-half strength, but overall probability remains low.
- Austria Vienna have won 2 of last 5 H2H matches, with 2 draws.
- Grazer AK have not won any of their last 3 home matches against Austria Vienna.
- Austria Vienna's away form: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses in 3 away games this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Austria ViennaEstimated chance22%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent goal averages and H2H history support a relatively high-scoring game, with Grazer AK's leaky defense a key factor.
- Grazer AK matches average 3.2 total goals (1.3 scored + 1.9 conceded).
- Austria Vienna matches average 3.0 total goals (1.9 scored + 1.1 conceded).
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 2, 3, 4, 3, 3 goals respectively.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistently found the net in recent head-to-heads, and Grazer AK's defensive vulnerabilities increase the likelihood of both scoring.
- Grazer AK scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Austria Vienna scored in all 5 H2H meetings.
- Grazer AK have conceded in 4 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Grazer AK's early defensive lapses and Austria Vienna's attacking intent making a first-half goal likely.
- Grazer AK average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Austria Vienna average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- In last 5 H2H, first-half goals occurred in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' patterns, but the low confidence reflects variability in match flow.
- Grazer AK concede 0.9 goals per second half on average.
- Austria Vienna score 1.1 goals per second half on average.
- Last 5 H2H second halves averaged 1.6 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, but the line is close to their combined average, making this a borderline call.
- Grazer AK average 4.4 corners per match, Austria Vienna 4.1.
- Combined average corners in their matches: 8.5.
- Recent H2H corner counts unavailable.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shot volume could exceed the line if Grazer AK's attacking intensity under the new coach translates into more attempts on target.
- Grazer AK average 4.6 shots on target per match, Austria Vienna 3.4.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.0.
- Grazer AK's recent matches have seen high shot volumes (e.g., 27 shots vs Wolfsberger).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grazer AK's aggressive style under the new coach may lead to more fouls and cards, pushing the total over the line.
- Grazer AK average 2.8 yellow cards per match, Austria Vienna 1.5.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.3.
- Grazer AK's recent matches have seen multiple bookings (e.g., 5 yellows vs SCR Altach).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance52%