Burton Albion2Mansfield Town2

HT 2–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 11:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 10–12On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 17:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Burton Albion or Draw at 1.45 for the best value edge (+6 points), as Burton are unbeaten at home and Mansfield have lost all three away games.

Avoid Mansfield away and the over 0.5 first-half goals market, which is overpriced. Watch for confirmation on Mansfield defender Dodgson's suspension, which could further weaken their away defence.

Context

Mansfield Town are 17th in League One with 7 points from 6 matches. Their away record is 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses.
Mansfield Town have lost away to Bradford 0-1 on 2026-09-05, Reading 0-5 on 2026-09-02, and Peterborough 1-2 on 2026-08-22. They have conceded 8 goals and scored only 1 in those matches. Burton Albion are unbeaten at home this season with 1 win and 2 draws, so Mansfield's away struggles may continue.
- Mansfield Town away record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, 1 goal scored, 8 goals conceded.
- Lost 0-1 at Bradford on 2026-09-05.
- Lost 0-5 at Reading on 2026-09-02.
- Lost 1-2 at Peterborough on 2026-08-22.
Burton Albion are 11th in League One with 8 points from 6 matches. Their home record is 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses.
Burton Albion beat AFC Wimbledon 4-1 on 2026-09-02, drew 2-2 with Cambridge United on 2026-09-05, and drew 1-1 with Stevenage on 2026-08-15. They have scored 7 goals and conceded 4 at home. Mansfield Town have lost all away matches, so Burton's home strength could be decisive.
- Burton Albion home record: 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses, 7 goals scored, 4 goals conceded.
- Won 4-1 vs AFC Wimbledon on 2026-09-02.
- Drew 2-2 vs Cambridge United on 2026-09-05.
- Drew 1-1 vs Stevenage on 2026-08-15.
Burton Albion and Mansfield Town have met five times since 2023, with three draws and one win each.
The last league meeting on 2026-04-06 ended 0-0 at Mansfield. Burton won 2-1 at home on 2025-08-02, and the teams drew 1-1 on 2025-03-01. The history suggests a tight match, but current away form for Mansfield may break the pattern.
- 2026-04-06: Mansfield 0-0 Burton (League One).
- 2025-08-02: Burton 2-1 Mansfield (League One).
- 2025-03-01: Burton 1-1 Mansfield (League One).
Mansfield defender O. Dodgson entered as a half-time substitute against Huddersfield on 12 September and was sent off in the 47th minute.
His availability for the trip to Burton is unresolved pending confirmation of the disciplinary outcome. If a suspension is imposed, Mansfield lose a left-sided defensive option and may need to alter wing-back or back-three cover.
- Dodgson entered as a half-time substitute against Huddersfield on 12 September.
- He was shown a straight red in the 47th minute, shortly after coming on.
- Mansfield held on for a 0-0 draw while playing with ten men.
- O. Dodgson started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 17:04 · Europe/BucharestSky Sports: Mansfield Town 0-0 Huddersfield Townwww.skysports.com · 12 Sep 2026Nottingham Sport match reportwww.nottinghamsport.com · 14 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burton's strong home form and Mansfield's poor away record, combined with H2H dominance, make Burton the most likely winner.
- Burton home record this season: 1W 2D 0L, 7 goals for, 4 against
- Mansfield away record this season: 0W 0D 3L, 1 goal for, 8 against
- H2H last 5: Burton 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBurton AlbionEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burton's home resilience and Mansfield's away struggles strongly support a home win or draw.
- Burton unbeaten at home this season (1W 2D)
- Mansfield have lost all 3 away games this season
- H2H: Burton have never lost to Mansfield in last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBurton Albion or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burton's tendency to start strongly at home gives them a slight edge, but first-half outcomes are volatile.
- Burton led at half-time in 40% of recent matches
- Mansfield trailed at half-time in 27% of recent matches
- Burton home first half goal difference: +0.67 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBurton AlbionEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Burton half-time/full-time double is possible but not strongly supported by recent patterns.
- Burton have led at half-time and won in 2 of last 5 matches
- Mansfield have trailed at half-time and lost in 2 of last 5 matches
- H2H: Burton won both halves in 1 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostBurton Albion/Burton AlbionEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, and H2H history supports goals.
- Burton home games average 3.67 total goals (7 for, 4 against in 3 games)
- Mansfield away games average 3.0 total goals (1 for, 8 against in 3 games)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burton's home scoring and Mansfield's away defensive frailty, plus H2H pattern, make both teams scoring likely.
- Burton scored in all 3 home games this season
- Mansfield conceded in all 3 away games this season
- H2H: both teams scored in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, especially with Mansfield's early defensive lapses away.
- Burton first half goals at home: 1.0 average (3 goals in 3 games)
- Mansfield first half goals conceded away: 1.33 average (4 goals in 3 games)
- H2H: 4 of last 5 meetings had a first half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been productive for both teams, but sample size is small, so confidence is low.
- Burton second half goals at home: 1.33 average (4 goals in 3 games)
- Mansfield second half goals conceded away: 1.33 average (4 goals in 3 games)
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had over 1.5 second half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest a moderate chance of over 8.5 corners, but variance is high.
- Burton average corners per game: 3.1, opponent corners: 5.3 (total 8.4)
- Mansfield average corners per game: 4.3, opponent corners: 5.5 (total 9.8)
- H2H last 5: average total corners 9.2
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of shots on target, making over 7.5 a coin flip.
- Burton average shots on target per game: 4.3, opponent: 4.7 (total 9.0)
- Mansfield average shots on target per game: 3.9, opponent: 4.5 (total 8.4)
- H2H: shots on target data not available for all matches
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mansfield's higher card count and competitive nature of the fixture could push total cards over 3.5.
- Burton average yellow cards per game: 1.7, opponent: 1.3 (total 3.0)
- Mansfield average yellow cards per game: 2.2, opponent: 1.5 (total 3.7)
- H2H: card data not available
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%