Stockport County vs Mansfield Town: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong motivation asymmetry (Core 5: Motivation/Stakes) plus a clear structural home edge (Core 5: Home/Away Edge) — Stockport's promotion push and superior home form outweigh Mansfield's historical H2H advantage.
- Stockport 5th (71 pts) chasing play-offs vs Mansfield 14th (55 pts) with nothing to play for
- Stockport home record: 12W-4D-4L, 34 GF / 22 GA in 20 home games this season
- Stockport recent form DWDWW; Mansfield away record 5W-8D-7L (19 GF / 22 GA in 20 away games)
- Stockport last-10 averages 1.9 goals scored vs Mansfield away avg 1.4 scored / 1.0 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStockport CountyEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combines Stockport's strong home base with Mansfield's modest away return — Motivation and structural Home edge both favour avoiding a Mansfield win.
- Stockport unbeaten in last 4 league outings (DWDWW)
- Stockport home: only 4 home defeats in 20 matches this season
- Mansfield away: just 5 wins in 20 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostStockport or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stockport's improvised back line (Core 5: Injuries Impact) raises Mansfield's chance of scoring while Stockport's home attack (1.7 GF/g at home) should still find the net.
- Stockport conceded in 4 of last 5 (avg 1.3 GA per game last 10)
- Stockport defensive injuries — striker Wootton moved to CB (reported 15 Apr 2026)
- Mansfield scored in 3 of last 5; away scoring rate 19 in 20 (~0.95/g)
- Reverse fixture Dec 2025 ended 1-2 (BTTS yes)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stockport's open recent profile (last 10 avg 1.9 GF / 1.3 GA) combined with defensive reshuffle (Injuries) tilts the goals line above 2.5.
- Stockport last 5: 11 goals scored, 8 conceded (3.8 goals/match avg)
- Stockport home matches this season average 2.8 total goals (34+22 in 20)
- Mansfield away matches average 2.05 total goals (19+22 in 20)
- Reverse fixture had 3 goals; previous H2H also produced 3 goals on average
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stockport's home-attack volume (Tactical Matchup Edge — high shot output) backs them to score 2+, with motivation reinforcing intensity.
- Stockport averaging 1.9 goals per game in last 10 with 14.2 shots and 6.1 SOT
- Home goals tally 34 in 20 matches (1.7 per home game)
- Mansfield away GA: 22 in 20 (1.1 per game)
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostStockport Over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Improvised defence (Core 5: Injuries) and Stockport's recent leak rate make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Stockport conceded in 4 of last 5 matches
- Defensive injury — striker Wootton deployed at CB
- Mansfield scored in 3 of last 5 and won 2-1 at Edgeley Park in Jan 2025
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMansfield Town to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mansfield's slow-start profile (Tactical Matchup Edge — only 30% leading at HT) drags expected first-half goals below 1.5.
- Mansfield last 10 average 0.5 first-half goals scored, 0.4 conceded
- Stockport last 10 average 1.0 first-half goal scored, 0.7 conceded
- Combined first-half goal expectancy ~1.3
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stockport's strong shot generation (Tactical Matchup Edge — possession 56% and 14.2 shots/g) drives total SOT comfortably above 8.5.
- Stockport last 10 average 6.1 SOT per game
- Mansfield last 5 average 3.6 SOT per game
- Combined recent SOT average ~10.5 per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marginal edge from combined recent corner output; weak signal so kept LOW (Strict Evidence Gate).
- Stockport last 10 averaged 5.3 corners per game
- Mansfield last 5 averaged 4.8 corners per game
- Combined ~10.1 corners per match in recent samples
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mansfield's high foul count (11.8/g) plus Stockport's recent disciplinary issues (1 red in last 5) supports a 4+ card line — reinforced by a tense promotion-context derby (Motivation).
- Mansfield last 10 averages 11.8 fouls and 1.5 yellow cards per game
- Stockport last 10 averages 9.0 fouls and 1.8 yellows; one red card in last 5
- Reverse fixture (Dec 2025) plus stakes asymmetry typically raises card volume
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Stockport County Promotion - League One (Play Offs)	42	20	11	11	64-53	71	DWDWW
14	Mansfield Town	42	13	16	13	52-45	55	DDLDW

Stockport County0Mansfield Town1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Stockport or Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 2 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Stockport County

Mansfield Town

Squad & Injuries

Stockport County

Mansfield Town