Widzew Lodz2Wieczysta Krakow2

HT 1–1Fri 18 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 19–13On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 00:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Widzew's new coach and poor home form make them overpriced at 1.91, while goal markets (Over 2.5, BTTS, first-half Over 0.5) all show negative edges.

Avoid these markets; the match is more unpredictable than the odds imply.

Context

Wieczysta Krakow are 17th in the 18-team Ekstraklasa with 4 points from 7 matches, one point above the relegation line.
Their away record is poor: 1 win and 4 losses in 5 away matches, with 7 goals scored and 12 conceded. This match is an opportunity to gain points against a mid-table side, but their away form suggests they may struggle. The pressure of the relegation battle could influence their approach, but the supplied evidence does not establish a specific tactical change.
- Wieczysta Krakow are 17th with 4 points from 7 matches, one point above the relegation line.
- Away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses in 5 away matches, with 7 goals scored and 12 conceded.
Mateusz Stolarski was appointed Widzew Łódź head coach on 11 September 2026, and his first match in charge was the 1-1 draw away to Legia Warszawa on 13 September.
Stolarski had only two days of work with the squad before that debut, so his preferred selection and structure remain unsettled for this home match. The short preparation period adds uncertainty around how fully his tactical ideas can be applied, though the draw at Legia shows the team can still compete without extensive preparation.
- Widzew officially announced Mateusz Stolarski as its new head coach on 11 September 2026.
- Stolarski's first match in charge was Widzew's 1-1 draw away to Legia Warszawa on 13 September.
- After the Legia match, Stolarski said he had worked with the squad for only two days before his debut.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 00:16 · Europe/BucharestStolarski reflects on his Legia debutwww.widzewtomy.net · 13 Sep 2026
Widzew Lodz are 11th with 8 points from 8 matches, but their home form is weak.
At home, they have 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in 4 matches, with 5 goals scored and 7 conceded. This suggests they have struggled to impose themselves at their own stadium. Wieczysta Krakow's away record is also poor, so this match may be closely contested, but the supplied evidence does not indicate a clear advantage for either side.
- Widzew Lodz home record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 4 matches, with 5 goals scored and 7 conceded.
- Recent home matches: 0-0 draw vs Radomiak Radom on 2026-09-05, 2-3 loss vs Lech Poznan on 2026-08-30, 1-2 loss vs Korona Kielce on 2026-08-15.
Wieczysta Krakow's recent league form shows four losses in their last five matches.
They lost 0-2 at Pogon Szczecin on 2026-09-13, 0-2 at Wisla Krakow on 2026-08-29, and 2-3 at Cracovia Krakow on 2026-08-21. This run indicates defensive vulnerabilities, especially away from home. However, they did win 4-3 at Piast Gliwice on 2026-08-15, showing they can score, but consistency is lacking.
- Lost 0-2 at Pogon Szczecin on 2026-09-13.
- Lost 0-2 at Wisla Krakow on 2026-08-29.
- Lost 2-3 at Cracovia Krakow on 2026-08-21.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Widzew Lodz

1.91fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 52.4%

0.0ppshort

Widzew's home form is poor but Wieczysta's away defensive record is worse, giving Widzew a slight edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Widzew Lodz or Draw

1.33fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Widzew's high draw rate combined with Wieczysta's poor away form makes Widzew or Draw likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches trend towards higher scoring, especially Wieczysta's away games.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records, and Wieczysta's away defense is leaky.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have decent first-half scoring and conceding rates, making a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Widzew's home form is poor but Wieczysta's away defensive record is worse, giving Widzew a slight edge.
- Widzew Lodz home record: 0W 2D 2L in 4 home matches, but overall form 1W 5D 2L
- Wieczysta Krakow away record: 1W 0D 4L in 5 away matches, conceding 12 goals
- Widzew Lodz average 1.7 goals scored vs Wieczysta 2.0 conceded per match
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostWidzew LodzEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Widzew's high draw rate combined with Wieczysta's poor away form makes Widzew or Draw likely.
- Widzew Lodz have drawn 5 of 8 league matches
- Wieczysta Krakow have lost 5 of 7 league matches
- Widzew Lodz home matches: 2 draws in 4 games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWidzew Lodz or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, with Widzew slightly more likely to lead but not decisively.
- Widzew Lodz leading at half-time in 47% of matches, trailing in 13%
- Wieczysta Krakow leading at half-time in 13%, trailing in 33%
- Both teams have drawn at half-time in many recent matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Widzew win is a plausible but low-probability scenario given Widzew's tendency to draw.
- Widzew Lodz have drawn at half-time in 5 of 8 league matches
- Widzew Lodz have won 1 of 8 league matches overall
- Wieczysta Krakow have lost 5 of 7 league matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Widzew LodzEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches trend towards higher scoring, especially Wieczysta's away games.
- Widzew Lodz matches average 2.8 total goals (1.7 scored, 1.1 conceded)
- Wieczysta Krakow matches average 3.5 total goals (1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded)
- Wieczysta away matches average 3.8 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and Wieczysta's away defense is leaky.
- Widzew Lodz scored in 7 of 8 league matches
- Wieczysta Krakow scored in 6 of 7 league matches
- Wieczysta conceded in all 5 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent first-half scoring and conceding rates, making a first-half goal likely.
- Widzew Lodz average 0.9 first-half goals scored
- Wieczysta Krakow average 0.8 first-half goals conceded
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.4
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring trends suggest a moderate chance of at least two goals after the break.
- Widzew Lodz average 0.8 second-half goals scored (1.7 total - 0.9 first half)
- Wieczysta Krakow average 1.2 second-half goals conceded (2.0 total - 0.8 first half)
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.7
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, pushing the total slightly above the line.
- Widzew Lodz average 5.6 corners per match
- Wieczysta Krakow average 5.0 corners per match
- Combined average corners: 10.6
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is close to the line, making this a coin-flip proposition.
- Widzew Lodz average 3.8 shots on target per match
- Wieczysta Krakow average 4.3 shots on target per match
- Combined average shots on target: 8.1
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams accumulate a moderate number of cards, suggesting a slight lean towards over the line.
- Widzew Lodz average 2.7 yellow cards per match
- Wieczysta Krakow average 2.0 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.7
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%