Thun2Servette FC4

HT 1–2Wed 16 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 17–13On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 7–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 04:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Thun's home form is dire (0 goals in 3 home games) and they are missing captain Bürki, while Servette are weakened by injuries and suspension.

The market overprices goals and BTTS, so avoid those markets; the only small value edge is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.00.

Context

Thun sit 10th in the Super League with 7 points from 7 matches, level with Servette but behind on goal difference.
Their home record is the worst in the league: 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, with 0 goals scored and 7 conceded. This pattern suggests they struggle to create chances in front of their own fans, which could give Servette confidence despite their own poor away form.
- Thun home record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 0 goals for, 7 goals against.
- Most recent home league match: lost 0-1 to Grasshoppers on 2026-09-12.
Thun defender M. Bürki, who started four of the last five available lineups, is suspended for four matches after a violent-conduct sending-off against Grasshoppers.
Thun must reconfigure their back line without their captain for this fixture. The suspension removes a regular starter from central defence, forcing a change in defensive selection and potentially reducing stability against Servette's attack. The linked analysis supports an away win, partly reflecting Thun's poor home form and defensive vulnerability, which this absence could deepen.
- Swiss Football League confirmed that Bürki will miss Thun’s next four matches.
- The league said he was sent off against Grasshoppers for violent conduct, with provocation taken into account.
- M. Bürki started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 03:59 · Europe/BucharestSwiss Football League disciplinary decisionsfl.ch · 14 Sep 2026
Servette midfielder T. Cognat is ruled out for four to six weeks with an ankle injury sustained against St. Gallen and missed the 13 September trip to Lausanne.
Servette must organise their midfield without their captain for this match. Cognat's absence removes a key midfield selection option during a short turnaround, potentially affecting ball progression and defensive cover. The linked analysis still favours Servette, but this injury reduces their midfield depth and could alter their approach.
- Servette listed Cognat as injured among the absentees from its 13 September travelling squad.
- SRF reported that Servette said Cognat would be absent for four to six weeks after being injured against St. Gallen.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 03:59 · Europe/BucharestServette FC squad announcementservettefc.ch · 13 Sep 2026SRF Sport injury reportwww.srf.ch · 10 Sep 2026
Servette are 9th with 7 points, also in the relegation play-off zone.
Their away record is 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, scoring 2 and conceding 3. They have struggled on the road, which may limit their ability to take advantage of Thun's home weakness.
- Servette away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, 2 goals for, 3 goals against.
- Most recent away league match: won 1-0 at Lausanne on 2026-09-13.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Servette FC

1.45fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Thun have failed to win any home match this season while Servette have avoided defeat in 1 of 3 away matches, supporting the double chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.44fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Thun's defensive vulnerability (2.3 conceded/game) and Servette's decent scoring rate suggest goals, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown scoring and conceding tendencies, but the odds heavily favor BTTS and leave no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a reasonable chance of scoring in the first half, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Thun's home form is extremely poor with no wins and no goals scored, while Servette have a slightly better away record and defensive stability, making an away win the most likely single outcome.
- Thun home record this season: 0W-1D-2L, 0 goals scored, 7 conceded in 3 home matches.
- Servette away record: 1W-0D-2L, 2 goals scored, 3 conceded in 3 away matches.
- Thun overall form: LLDWL, 2W-1D-4L, 11 goals scored, 18 conceded.
- Servette overall form: WLLDW, 2W-1D-4L, 5 goals scored, 8 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonServette FCEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Thun's inability to win at home and Servette's competitive away performances, the double chance of a draw or Servette win is strongly supported.
- Thun home record: 0W-1D-2L, 0 goals scored, 7 conceded.
- Servette away record: 1W-0D-2L, 2 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Thun have failed to win any home match this season.
- Servette have avoided defeat in 1 of 3 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Servette FCEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively balanced first-half performances, making a draw at half-time the most likely outcome.
- Thun have led at half-time in 33% of matches and trailed in 27%.
- Servette have led at half-time in 21% of matches and trailed in 21%.
- Thun's first-half goal difference is -0.2 per match.
- Servette's first-half goal difference is +0.3 per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Servette's stronger second-half performances and Thun's defensive lapses late in games give Servette a slight edge in the second half.
- Thun have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Servette have won the second half in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Thun's second-half goal difference is -0.3 per match.
- Servette's second-half goal difference is +0.3 per match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonServette FCEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Servette win is a plausible sequence given Servette's tendency to improve in the second half and Thun's late-game struggles.
- Thun have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Servette have drawn at half-time in 58% of matches.
- Servette have won 2 of their last 5 matches overall.
- Thun have lost 3 of their last 5 matches overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Servette FCEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Thun's defensive vulnerability (2.3 goals conceded per game) combined with Servette's decent scoring rate suggests a match with at least three goals is likely.
- Thun average 1.8 goals scored and 2.3 goals conceded per match overall.
- Servette average 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 goals conceded per match overall.
- Thun home matches have averaged 2.33 total goals (0 scored, 7 conceded in 3 games).
- Servette away matches have averaged 1.67 total goals (2 scored, 3 conceded in 3 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown the ability to score while also conceding regularly, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Thun have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches overall.
- Servette have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches overall.
- Thun have conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Servette have conceded in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a reasonable chance of scoring in the first half, and Thun's defensive weakness early on increases the likelihood of at least one first-half goal.
- Thun average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 1.1 first-half goals conceded.
- Servette average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.4 first-half goals conceded.
- Thun have scored in the first half in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Servette have scored in the first half in 2 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Thun's tendency to concede in the second half and Servette's ability to score late suggests the second half could see multiple goals.
- Thun average 0.9 second-half goals scored and 1.2 second-half goals conceded.
- Servette average 0.8 second-half goals scored and 0.5 second-half goals conceded.
- Thun have conceded in the second half in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Servette have scored in the second half in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and their combined averages suggest a total above 9.5 corners is likely.
- Thun average 5.5 corners per match and concede 5.5 opponent corners.
- Servette average 6.9 corners per match and concede 4.9 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners per match: 11.4.
- Recent H2H matches have averaged 10.4 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages from both teams suggest a total above 8.5 is achievable.
- Thun average 3.9 shots on target per match and concede 5.1 opponent shots on target.
- Servette average 5.0 shots on target per match and concede 3.3 opponent shots on target.
- Combined average shots on target per match: 8.9.
- Recent H2H matches have averaged 9.2 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar card averages, and the combined total is right at the 4.5 line, making over 4.5 cards a coin-flip proposition.
- Thun average 2.2 yellow cards per match and 0.2 red cards.
- Servette average 2.3 yellow cards per match and 0 red cards.
- Combined average cards per match: 4.5.
- Recent H2H matches have averaged 4.8 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance50%