FC Basel vs Thun: result, stats and head-to-head

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Thun's European distraction and short turnaround significantly weaken their chances, giving Basel a home edge despite Thun's recent H2H dominance.
- Basel won their last home H2H vs Thun 3-1 in May 2026.
- Thun are unbeaten in 3 meetings vs Basel in 2026, but all were before the current season.
- Basel lost their only home league match this season 0-1, but won their away match 1-0.
- Thun have a Europa League match just 68.5 hours before this fixture, likely causing rotation and fatigue.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC BaselEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Thun's fatigue and Basel's home advantage, Basel are likely to avoid defeat, making the double chance a safer play than outright win.
- Basel have not lost at home to Thun in their last 2 home H2H meetings (W1 D1).
- Thun's away form this season is 1 win, but they face a tight schedule with European commitments.
- Basel's home form is poor (1 loss), but they have a rest advantage over Thun.
- Thun lost their only home league match 0-6, indicating defensive fragility.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Basel or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Thun's fatigue is likely to be most pronounced in the second half, giving Basel an edge to win that period, though the evidence is not overwhelming.
- Basel have a rest advantage, while Thun played a Europa League match 68.5 hours earlier.
- Thun conceded 6 goals in their last home match, many in the second half.
- Basel's recent form shows they can score late; they scored second-half goals in 2 of last 5 competitive matches.
- H2H: In the last meeting, Basel scored 2 second-half goals to win 3-1.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFC BaselEstimated chance40%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of both teams scoring and high-scoring affairs, combined with Thun's leaky defense and Basel's need to bounce back at home, strongly supports over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in all 4 H2H meetings in 2025-2026, with 3 of those matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
- Thun's last 5 competitive matches averaged 4.2 total goals, with 4 of 5 going over 2.5.
- Basel's last 5 competitive matches averaged 2.6 total goals, with 3 of 5 going over 2.5.
- Thun conceded 7 goals in their first 2 league matches this season, while Basel scored 1 and conceded 1.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The consistent H2H trend of both teams finding the net, along with both sides showing defensive vulnerabilities in recent matches, makes BTTS highly probable.
- Both teams scored in all 4 H2H meetings in 2025-2026.
- Thun scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches, while Basel scored in 3 of their last 5.
- Thun conceded in 5 of their last 5 competitive matches, Basel conceded in 4 of their last 5.
- Thun's away record this season: scored 3, conceded 1 in one match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and the H2H pattern suggests first-half action is likely, especially with Thun potentially starting slowly due to fatigue.
- In the last 4 H2H meetings, 3 had at least 1 first-half goal.
- Thun's last 5 competitive matches: 4 had over 0.5 first-half goals.
- Basel's last 5 competitive matches: 3 had over 0.5 first-half goals.
- Thun's first-half goal averages: scored 1.0, conceded 0.9 in recent form.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Thun's potential second-half drop-off due to fatigue, combined with the high-scoring H2H trend, makes over 1.5 second-half goals a strong possibility.
- In the last 4 H2H meetings, 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Thun's last 5 competitive matches: 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Basel's last 5 competitive matches: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Thun's fatigue from midweek European action may lead to more goals conceded late.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and the H2H trend suggests a high total, but the low confidence reflects limited corner data in the provided stats.
- Basel average 5.5 corners per match in recent form, Thun average 5.8.
- In the last 2 H2H meetings with corner data, total corners were 11 and 13.
- Thun's last 5 competitive matches averaged 10.2 total corners.
- Basel's last 5 competitive matches averaged 9.6 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary records of both teams and the competitive nature of the fixture suggest a moderate card count, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Basel average 2.3 yellow cards per match, Thun average 2.6 in recent form.
- In the last 2 H2H meetings with card data, total cards were 5 and 7.
- Thun's last 5 competitive matches averaged 5.2 total cards.
- Basel's last 5 competitive matches averaged 4.6 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance58%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	FC Basel Relegation Play-offs	2	1	0	1	1-1	3	LW
8	Thun Relegation Play-offs	2	1	0	1	3-7	3	LW

FC Basel4Thun2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

FC Basel

FC Basel or Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

FC Basel

Thun

Squad & Injuries

FC Basel

Thun