Sunderland1AZ Alkmaar0

HT 0–0Wed 16 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–1017%

Edges0–60%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 20–11On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 12–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 17:45 · Europe/Bucharest

AZ Alkmaar are significantly undervalued against Sunderland, with a 45% win probability priced at just 24% (odds 4.20).

The double chance Draw or AZ at 2.10 also offers strong value, while Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.25 is a solid goal-market edge. Avoid Sunderland or Draw and Over 0.5 first-half goals, as the market has already priced those outcomes too heavily.

Context

AZ Alkmaar are competing in the Eredivisie and have started the season strongly.
They beat Heerenveen 3-2 on 6 September, GO Ahead Eagles 5-2 on 29 August, Fortuna Sittard 2-0 on 22 August, Utrecht 4-1 on 15 August, and ADO Den Haag 2-0 on 8 August. That run shows a team creating chances and finishing them, but the opponents were mostly mid-table Dutch sides, so the step up to a Premier League club may be different.
- AZ Alkmaar won 3-2 at Heerenveen on 6 September 2026.
- AZ Alkmaar won 5-2 at home to GO Ahead Eagles on 29 August 2026.
- AZ Alkmaar won 2-0 at Fortuna Sittard on 22 August 2026.
- AZ Alkmaar won 4-1 at Utrecht on 15 August 2026.
Sunderland are playing in the Premier League and have had mixed results at the Stadium of Light.
They beat Hull City 1-0 in the League Cup on 8 September and Fulham 1-0 in the Premier League on 30 August, but lost 5-0 to Nottingham Forest at home on 24 April. The Forest result shows they can be vulnerable against teams that press high, though that was several months ago and the squad may have changed.
- Sunderland won 1-0 at home to Hull City on 8 September 2026.
- Sunderland won 1-0 at home to Fulham on 30 August 2026.
- Sunderland lost 5-0 at home to Nottingham Forest on 24 April 2026.
Sunderland winger Romaine Mundle has not started any of the last five fixtures with available lineups, with B. Brobbey starting in the same position in four of those matches.
Mundle's knee injury keeps him out until around the end of the year, so Sunderland lose a wide attacking option for this match. Brobbey has been the recent replacement in that role, which limits the disruption but still narrows the choices available to the manager.
- Le Bris confirmed before Arsenal that Mundle has a knee injury.
- Le Bris said Sunderland hope Mundle will be ready by the end of the year.
- R. Mundle started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- B. Brobbey started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when R. Mundle did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 17:43 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport via Yahoo Newsnz.news.yahoo.com
AZ Alkmaar's season averages come from their Eredivisie matches.
They have averaged 58% possession and 18.6 shots per game, with 7.3 shots on target. Sunderland average 50.6% possession and 13.1 shots, so AZ may see more of the ball and test the home defence more often. However, these averages are from different leagues, so the comparison is not exact.
- AZ Alkmaar average 58% possession per game.
- AZ Alkmaar average 18.6 shots per game.
- Sunderland average 50.6% possession and 13.1 shots per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AZ's superior attacking output and recent form give them an edge, though Sunderland's home advantage and resilience keep the probability moderate.
- AZ Alkmaar average 2.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Sunderland average 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over last 15 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Sunderland have won 2, drawn 2, lost 1 in their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAZ AlkmaarEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AZ's strong unbeaten run and attacking form make them unlikely to lose, while Sunderland's home resilience could force a draw.
- AZ Alkmaar have lost only 1 of their last 15 matches.
- Sunderland have lost 3 of their last 15 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar average 2.6 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or AZ AlkmaarEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AZ's stronger first-half performance makes them the most likely halftime leader, though the probability remains low due to draw likelihood.
- AZ Alkmaar led at halftime in 47% of matches.
- Sunderland led at halftime in only 27% of matches.
- AZ Alkmaar average 0.9 first-half goals vs Sunderland's 0.6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAZ AlkmaarEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AZ's superior second-half scoring rate gives them an edge to win the second half.
- AZ Alkmaar average 1.7 second-half goals.
- Sunderland average 0.9 second-half goals.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAZ AlkmaarEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by an AZ win is a plausible scenario given AZ's second-half strength.
- AZ Alkmaar have drawn at halftime in 33% of matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 60% of their matches overall.
- Sunderland have drawn at halftime in 40% of matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/AZ AlkmaarEstimated chance20%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
AZ's high-scoring tendency combined with Sunderland's moderate defensive record supports a high total goals expectation.
- AZ Alkmaar matches average 3.9 total goals (2.6 scored + 1.3 conceded).
- Sunderland matches average 2.7 total goals (1.5 scored + 1.2 conceded).
- AZ Alkmaar have scored 3+ goals in 6 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and AZ's defense is not impenetrable, making both teams scoring likely.
- Sunderland have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have conceded in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have scored in 14 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AZ's first-half scoring rate and Sunderland's tendency to concede early suggest at least one first-half goal is likely.
- AZ Alkmaar average 0.9 first-half goals scored.
- Sunderland average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- AZ Alkmaar have led at halftime in 47% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, supporting a higher second-half goal total.
- AZ Alkmaar average 1.7 second-half goals (2.6 total - 0.9 first-half).
- Sunderland average 0.9 second-half goals (1.5 total - 0.6 first-half).
- Combined second-half average is 2.6 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, making over 9.5 a near coin-flip.
- AZ Alkmaar average 6.8 corners per match.
- Sunderland average 4.2 corners per match.
- Combined average corners is 11.0.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
AZ's high shot-on-target volume and Sunderland's moderate output support a total above 8.5.
- AZ Alkmaar average 7.3 shots on target per match.
- Sunderland average 4.0 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target is 11.3.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is slightly below the line, but match intensity could push it over.
- Sunderland average 1.9 yellow cards per match.
- AZ Alkmaar average 1.1 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards is 3.0.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%