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Predictions graded

Boyaca Chico1Alianza Valledupar2

HT 1–2Wed 16 Sept 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–1121%

Edges1–811%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 10–5On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 11–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 06:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Boyaca Chico are the likely winners based on strong home form and Alianza's poor away record, but the odds offer no value.

The match is expected to be low-scoring, yet under 2.5 goals and first-half under markets are overpriced. Best approach: avoid betting on heavily juiced low-scoring markets and consider the home win only at better odds.

Context

Boyaca Chico are 18th in the Apertura table with 17 points, but their home record is much better than their away record.
At home in the Apertura, Boyaca Chico won five, drew one, and lost three, scoring 13 goals and conceding only five. Away from home, they lost nine of ten matches and conceded 27 goals. This match is at home, so their stronger home form could help them against Alianza Valledupar.
- Home record in Apertura: 5 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 13 goals for, 5 against.
- Away record in Apertura: 0 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses, 2 goals for, 27 against.
Boyacá Chicó midfielder S. Salazar was sent off in the latest league match, a 2-1 win over Independiente Medellín.
His availability is unresolved, so the home midfield selection could change from that match. Until a disciplinary decision is published, the uncertainty affects how Boyacá Chicó can set up centrally.
- Caracol Radio reported that Boyacá Chicó finished its 2-1 win over Independiente Medellín with ten players after Sebastián Salazar's dismissal.
- The report published the current relegation table after that match.
To watchSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 06:22 · Europe/BucharestCaracol Radio relegation reportcaracol.com.co · 13 Sep 2026
Alianza Valledupar are 17th in the Apertura table with 17 points, and their away record is poor.
In the Apertura, Alianza Valledupar won one, drew three, and lost six away matches, scoring only six goals and conceding 18. This suggests they may struggle to get a result away to Boyaca Chico, who have been solid at home.
- Away record in Apertura: 1 win, 3 draws, 6 losses, 6 goals for, 18 against.
Alianza Valledupar defender J. Lasso was dismissed in the 70th minute of the 1-0 win over Junior.
His potential absence would force a change in the away back line. With no formal sanction confirmed, Alianza's defensive selection remains unsettled for this trip.
- Caracol Radio reported that Alianza finished its 1-0 win over Junior with ten players after Jhildrey Lasso's 70th-minute red card.
- The match report records that the dismissal was for an altercation.
To watchSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 06:22 · Europe/BucharestCaracol Radio Alianza vs Junior reportcaracol.com.co · 13 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 9

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Boyaca Chico

2.20fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 45.5%

0.0ppshort

Boyaca Chico's strong home form and Alianza's poor away record, reinforced by H2H home dominance, make the home side the most likely winner.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Boyaca Chico or Draw

1.33fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 75.2%

−0.2ppshort

Boyaca Chico's solid home form and Alianza's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

1.95fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a tendency to be level at the break, with low first-half scoring, making a draw the most likely half-time result.

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Boyaca Chico or Draw

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

−7.0ppshort

Boyaca Chico's home first-half strength and Alianza's away first-half struggles make a home lead or draw at the break likely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low scoring rates, especially in their respective home/away splits, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Boyaca Chico's strong home defense and Alianza's away scoring struggles make a clean sheet for at least one side likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.15fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Low first-half scoring rates for both teams make it unlikely that both will score before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Boyaca Chico's strong home form and Alianza's poor away record, reinforced by H2H home dominance, make the home side the most likely winner.
- Boyaca Chico home record: 5W 1D 3L, 13 goals for, 5 against in 9 home matches
- Alianza Valledupar away record: 1W 3D 6L, 6 goals for, 18 against in 10 away matches
- H2H last 5: home team won 4, draw 1; Boyaca Chico won both home meetings
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBoyaca ChicoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boyaca Chico's solid home form and Alianza's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Boyaca Chico home record: 5W 1D 3L, 13 goals for, 5 against in 9 home matches
- Alianza Valledupar away record: 1W 3D 6L, 6 goals for, 18 against in 10 away matches
- H2H last 5: home team won 4, draw 1
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBoyaca Chico or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at the break, with low first-half scoring, making a draw the most likely half-time result.
- Boyaca Chico leading at half time: 27% of matches
- Alianza Valledupar trailing at half time: 40% of matches
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were level at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Boyaca Chico's home advantage and Alianza's away second-half struggles give the home side a slight edge in the second period.
- Boyaca Chico home second half goal difference: +0.4 per match
- Alianza Valledupar away second half goal difference: -0.8 per match
- H2H last 5: home team won second half in 3 of 5 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBoyaca ChicoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Boyaca Chico win is a plausible pattern given their home strength and Alianza's away weakness.
- Boyaca Chico home matches: 3 of 9 had a draw at half time and home win at full time
- Alianza Valledupar away matches: 2 of 10 had a draw at half time and away loss at full time
- H2H last 5: 2 matches had draw at half time and home win at full time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Boyaca ChicoEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown the dominance required to win both halves, making 'No' a strong prediction.
- Boyaca Chico won both halves in only 1 of 9 home matches
- Alianza Valledupar lost both halves in 2 of 10 away matches
- H2H last 5: no team won both halves
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boyaca Chico's home first-half strength and Alianza's away first-half struggles make a home lead or draw at the break likely.
- Boyaca Chico home first half record: 4W 3D 2L in 9 home matches
- Alianza Valledupar away first half record: 1W 3D 6L in 10 away matches
- H2H last 5: home team led at half time in 2, draw in 3
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostBoyaca Chico or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates, especially in their respective home/away splits, suggesting a low-scoring match.
- Boyaca Chico home matches average 2.0 total goals (13 for, 5 against in 9)
- Alianza Valledupar away matches average 2.4 total goals (6 for, 18 against in 10)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boyaca Chico's strong home defense and Alianza's away scoring struggles make a clean sheet for at least one side likely.
- Boyaca Chico home clean sheets: 4 in 9 home matches
- Alianza Valledupar away scoring: 6 goals in 10 away matches, failed to score in 5
- H2H last 5: 3 matches ended with one team failing to score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Boyaca Chico first half goals: 0.5 per match average
- Alianza Valledupar first half goals: 0.5 per match average
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had 0 or 1 first half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring rates for both teams support under 1.5 goals in the second half.
- Boyaca Chico second half goals: 0.6 per match average
- Alianza Valledupar second half goals: 0.4 per match average
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had 0 or 1 second half goal
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams make it unlikely that both will score before the break.
- Boyaca Chico first half goals: 0.5 per match average
- Alianza Valledupar first half goals: 0.5 per match average
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in first half in only 1 of 5 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low corner counts, suggesting a total under 9.5 corners is likely.
- Boyaca Chico average corners per match: 4.5
- Alianza Valledupar average corners per match: 3.3
- Combined average corners: 7.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low shots on target averages, making under 8.5 total shots on target likely.
- Boyaca Chico average shots on target per match: 3.4
- Alianza Valledupar average shots on target per match: 2.9
- Combined average shots on target: 6.3
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%