HNK Gorica2NK Varazdin2

HT 0–0Mon 14 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 9–20On targetOn target 3–8CornersCorners 1–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 17:06 · Europe/Bucharest

NK Varazdin are clear favourites against winless HNK Gorica, with a model edge of +15.5 points on the away win at 2.15.

The double chance (Draw or Varazdin) at 1.35 is also a strong value play, while Over 2.5 goals offers medium-confidence upside.

Context

HNK Gorica are 10th in the 10-team HNL with 1 point from 6 matches, scoring 2 goals and conceding 10.
Their recent league form is LDLLL, including a 0-1 loss at Dinamo Zagreb on 5 September and a 0-0 home draw with Rijeka on 31 August. They have not won a league match this season and have scored only twice, which suggests they may struggle to create chances against a Varazdin side that has conceded just five goals in six games.
- HNK Gorica are 10th with 1 point from 6 matches (0W, 1D, 5L).
- They have scored 2 goals and conceded 10 in the league.
- Recent form: LDLLL, including a 0-1 loss at Dinamo Zagreb on 5 September and a 0-0 home draw with Rijeka on 31 August.
Varaždin forward I. Mamut has completed a transfer to Persija Jakarta, confirmed by the club on 10 September.
Mamut's departure removes a current forward option from Varaždin's squad for this match. The club's own preview states he has left, so the attacking selection is narrower than in recent fixtures. The linked analysis outlook for Varaždin's match-winner market remains high confidence, but that outlook does not depend on Mamut's availability and should not be read as a direct consequence of this transfer.
- Varaždin announced that it and Persija Jakarta had reached a transfer agreement for Ivan Mamut.
- Varaždin’s 11 September match preview states that Mamut has left the club.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 17:04 · Europe/BucharestNK Varaždin — Ivan Mamut continues his career in Indonesiavarazdin.club · 10 Sep 2026NK Varaždin — Gorica away-match previewvarazdin.club · 11 Sep 2026
NK Varazdin are 3rd in the HNL with 13 points from 6 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 5.
Their recent league form is DWLWW, including a 2-0 home win over Rijeka on 16 August and a 4-1 away win at Slaven Belupo on 9 August. They have kept three clean sheets in their last five league games and have scored at least two goals in four of those matches, which suggests they can control this game against a struggling Gorica side.
- NK Varazdin are 3rd with 13 points from 6 matches (4W, 1D, 1L).
- They have scored 11 goals and conceded 5 in the league.
- Recent form: DWLWW, including a 2-0 home win over Rijeka on 16 August and a 4-1 away win at Slaven Belupo on 9 August.
The last five meetings between these teams include three Varazdin wins, one Gorica win, and one draw.
Varazdin won 3-1 away at Gorica on 19 October 2025 and 2-1 at home on 26 January 2026. Gorica's only win in this period was a 3-1 away victory in the Cup on 4 March 2026. This recent head-to-head record suggests Varazdin have had the upper hand in this fixture.
- Varazdin won 3-1 away at Gorica on 19 October 2025.
- Varazdin won 2-1 at home on 26 January 2026.
- Gorica won 3-1 away in the Cup on 4 March 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
NK Varazdin's superior league position, goal difference, and recent H2H dominance make them clear favourites against a struggling Gorica side.
- NK Varazdin are 3rd with 13 points from 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), while HNK Gorica are bottom with 1 point (0W 1D 5L).
- NK Varazdin average 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match in HNL this season; Gorica average 0.9 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, NK Varazdin won 3 and drew 2, including a 2-1 away win at Gorica in January 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNK VarazdinEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gorica's winless league form and poor H2H record make a Varazdin win or draw highly likely.
- Gorica have not won any of their 6 league matches this season (0W 1D 5L).
- NK Varazdin have lost only 1 of 6 league matches and have won 4.
- H2H: Gorica have failed to beat Varazdin in the last 5 meetings (0W 2D 3L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or NK VarazdinEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Varazdin's stronger first-half performance metrics give them an edge to lead at the break.
- NK Varazdin lead at half-time in 53% of their recent matches, while Gorica lead in only 13%.
- Gorica trail at half-time in 53% of their recent matches.
- NK Varazdin average 0.9 first-half goals scored vs Gorica's 0.3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostNK VarazdinEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Varazdin's ability to start strongly and maintain leads, combined with Gorica's poor form, supports a Varazdin half-time/full-time double.
- NK Varazdin have led at half-time and won the match in 3 of their last 6 league games.
- Gorica have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 4 of their last 6 league games.
- H2H: Varazdin won both halves in the January 2026 meeting (2-1 away).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostNK Varazdin/NK VarazdinEstimated chance40%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Varazdin's attacking output and Gorica's defensive struggles point towards a match with multiple goals.
- NK Varazdin's league matches average 2.8 total goals (11 scored, 5 conceded in 6 games).
- Gorica's matches average 2.3 total goals (2 scored, 10 conceded in 6 games).
- H2H: 3 of the last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gorica's poor scoring record and Varazdin's solid defence suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Gorica have failed to score in 4 of their 6 league matches this season.
- NK Varazdin have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 league matches.
- Gorica average only 0.9 goals per match, while Varazdin concede only 0.8 per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring rates, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Gorica average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- NK Varazdin average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.1 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- In H2H, 3 of the last 5 meetings had 0 or 1 goal in the first half.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show a pattern of increasing attacking output after the break, supporting a higher second-half goal count.
- Gorica concede an average of 0.9 first-half goals but 1.4 total goals per match, indicating more goals in the second half.
- NK Varazdin score 0.9 first-half goals but 2.0 total goals per match, showing second-half scoring tendency.
- H2H: 2 of the last 5 meetings had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner statistics suggest a total above 8.5 corners is plausible.
- NK Varazdin average 4.5 corners per match and concede 4.5 opponent corners per match in recent HNL games.
- Gorica average 2.9 corners per match and concede 6.0 opponent corners per match in recent HNL games.
- Combined average corners per match for both teams is approximately 9.0.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages are close to the 7.5 line, making over 7.5 a reasonable low-confidence pick.
- NK Varazdin average 3.8 shots on target per match and concede 3.8 opponent shots on target per match.
- Gorica average 2.7 shots on target per match and concede 4.5 opponent shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target per match is approximately 7.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card averages are near the 3.5 line, and the match's competitive nature could push the total over.
- NK Varazdin average 1.7 yellow cards per match, while Gorica average 1.6 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards per match is 3.3, with potential for more in a competitive fixture.
- Gorica's disciplinary record shows 1.6 yellows per game, and Varazdin's 1.7, suggesting a total above 3.5 is possible.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%