FK Zemun1Radnik Surdulica1

HT 1–0Mon 14 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 31%–69%ShotsShots 9–24On targetOn target 2–7CornersCorners 1–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 01:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Radnik Surdulica are the likely winners against a Zemun side that has lost all eight league games, with the away win at 2.10 offering a small value edge.

The match is expected to be low-scoring, but the under 2.5 goals market is efficiently priced. Avoid backing Zemun or the first-half under 1.5 goals due to poor value.

Context

FK Zemun are 14th in the Super Liga with 1 point from 8 matches, already 11 points below the relegation line.
Their last five league results are all defeats: 1-2 at Vojvodina on 6 September, 0-2 at home to FK Crvena Zvezda on 30 August, 0-1 at OFK Beograd on 22 August, 0-1 at home to Mladost Lucani on 16 August, and 0-3 at Radnicki 1923 on 8 August. They have scored only three goals all season and conceded 16, so they need a result here to avoid falling further behind.
- Zemun have lost their last five Super Liga matches.
- They are 14th with 1 point from 8 games, 11 points below the relegation line.
- They have scored 3 goals and conceded 16 this season.
Radnik Surdulica are 6th with 12 points, but their away record is poor: 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in 3 games.
They lost 1-5 at Železničar Pančevo on 29 August and 1-2 at Vojvodina on 9 August, and drew 0-0 at OFK Beograd on 25 July. Their away goals scored are 2 and conceded 7, so they have struggled on the road despite strong home form.
- Radnik Surdulica have 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in 3 away league matches.
- They have scored 2 goals and conceded 7 away from home.
- Their away losses were 1-5 at Železničar Pančevo and 1-2 at Vojvodina.
Đorđi Mojsov is the reported incoming FK Zemun head coach, with a possible debut against Radnik Surdulica.
The coaching change remains unresolved, so Zemun's starting selection and tactical plan are uncertain until the club confirms who takes the bench. This could affect how Zemun prepares for the match, but no concrete lineup or tactical change is established.
- Meridian Sport reported on 8 September that Đorđi Mojsov had been chosen to replace Milan Kuljić at Zemun.
- Max-Sport reported on 11 September that the agreement with Kuljić still needed to be settled before Mojsov could be formally installed, and that a debut against Radnik was expected.
To watchSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 01:09 · Europe/BucharestMeridian Sportmeridiansport.rs · 8 Sep 2026Max-Sportwww.max-sport.rs · 11 Sep 2026
Zemun's attacking output is among the lowest in the league.
They average 0.9 goals per game and 2.3 shots on target, while conceding 1.9 goals per game. In their last five matches they scored only once, so they will need to improve sharply to trouble Radnik Surdulica.
- Zemun average 0.9 goals scored and 1.9 goals conceded per match.
- They average 2.3 shots on target per game.
- They have scored only 1 goal in their last 5 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Radnik's superior league form and Zemun's winless season make an away win the most likely outcome, though Radnik's poor away record (0W-1D-2L) tempers confidence.
- Zemun have lost all 8 Super Liga matches this season, scoring 3 and conceding 16.
- Radnik are 6th with 12 points, winning 3 of their last 5 league games.
- Zemun's home record is 0W-1D-3L with 2 goals scored and 6 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRadnik SurdulicaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Zemun's inability to win and Radnik's solid overall form, the double chance of draw or away win is strongly supported.
- Zemun have not won a league match this season (0W-1D-7L).
- Radnik have lost only 2 of 8 league matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Zemun won twice, Radnik once, and two draws.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Radnik SurdulicaEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The most common half-time result for both teams is a draw, and low first-half scoring supports this outcome.
- Zemun led at half-time in only 7% of matches, trailed in 43%, and drew in 50%.
- Radnik led at half-time in 47% of matches, trailed in 20%, and drew in 33%.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Radnik win is plausible given Zemun's second-half collapses, but the probability is low due to Radnik's away struggles.
- Zemun have drawn at half-time in 50% of matches but lost 87.5% of full matches.
- Radnik have drawn at half-time in 33% of matches and won 37.5% of full matches.
- Radnik's away form is poor, but Zemun's home form is worse.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Radnik SurdulicaEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates, and Zemun's home games have been particularly low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Zemun average 0.9 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match.
- Radnik average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 2.8, but Zemun's home matches average 2.0 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zemun's scoring struggles and Radnik's recent defensive solidity make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Zemun have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 league matches.
- Radnik kept a clean sheet in their last match against Crvena zvezda.
- Zemun average only 0.9 goals per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Zemun average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Radnik average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Combined first-half average: 1.1 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to see more goals as teams open up, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Zemun concede 1.1 goals per second half on average (1.9 total - 0.8 first half).
- Radnik score 0.3 goals per second half on average (1.0 total - 0.7 first half).
- Combined second-half average: 1.4 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low corner counts, and the combined average is below 9.5, supporting under 9.5 corners.
- Zemun average 3.4 corners per match and concede 5.4 opponent corners.
- Radnik average 3.4 corners per match and concede 5.4 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners: 8.8 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low shots on target numbers, and the combined average is below 8.5, supporting under 8.5 shots on target.
- Zemun average 2.3 shots on target per match and concede 5.4 opponent shots on target.
- Radnik average 4.1 shots on target per match and concede 4.4 opponent shots on target.
- Combined average shots on target: 7.7 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high card counts, and the combined average is well above 4.5, supporting over 4.5 cards.
- Zemun average 3.1 yellow cards per match and 0.8 red cards.
- Radnik average 3.1 yellow cards per match and 0.8 red cards.
- Combined average cards: 6.2 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 30% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 25%; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L2-1ZemunvRadnik SurdulicaMar 8, 2025PRV

D1-1Radnik SurdulicavZemunOct 6, 2024PRV

L2-0Radnik SurdulicavZemunJul 23, 2024FRI

L2-1ZemunvRadnik SurdulicaMay 11, 2019SUP

D0-0ZemunvRadnik SurdulicaDec 1, 2018SUP

Radnik Surdulica unbeaten in 5 meetingsRadnik Surdulica: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Super Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	FK Zemun Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Relegation Group)	8	0	1	7	3-16	1	LLLLL
6	Radnik Surdulica Promotion - Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Championship Group)	8	3	3	2	9-10	12	DWLWW