Zulte Waregem0Charleroi1

HT 0–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–50%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 15–15On targetOn target 2–5CornersCorners 9–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 01:42 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Zulte Waregem or Draw at 1.48 (implied 68%, model 72%) and Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.20 (implied 45.5%, model 55%).

Avoid Charleroi to win and Over 3.5 goals, as both are overpriced relative to our estimates.

Context

Zulte Waregem sit fifth with 11 points from five matches, having won both home games so far.
Their recent league results include a 2-0 win at Kortrijk on 6 September and a 2-2 draw at KVC Westerlo on 30 August. At home they beat SK Beveren 4-0 on 22 August and Genk 2-1 on 9 August. This run shows they can score and defend, but the draw at Westerlo shows they can be held by mid-table sides.
- Zulte Waregem are unbeaten in their first five league matches (3W, 2D).
- They won both home league games: 4-0 vs SK Beveren (22 Aug) and 2-1 vs Genk (9 Aug).
- Most recent league match: 2-0 away win at Kortrijk on 6 Sep.
Charleroi are fourth with 12 points, level with Club Brugge and one point behind leaders Gent.
They beat Kortrijk 3-1 away on 29 August and Lommel United 1-0 away on 16 August. Their only league defeat was a 2-3 home loss to Union St. Gilloise on 5 September. This away record suggests they can compete on the road, but the loss to Union shows they can be vulnerable against top sides.
- Charleroi have won four of their last five league matches (4W, 1L).
- They won both away league games: 3-1 at Kortrijk (29 Aug) and 1-0 at Lommel United (16 Aug).
- Most recent league match: 2-3 home loss to Union St. Gilloise on 5 Sep.
The most recent league meeting between these teams was on 22 March 2026, when Zulte Waregem won 1-0 at home.
In the previous home league match on 21 August 2022, Zulte Waregem lost 1-3 to Charleroi. However, the last two home league games have gone to Zulte Waregem, with the most recent being a 1-0 win. This suggests a slight home advantage in recent head-to-head league fixtures.
- Zulte Waregem beat Charleroi 1-0 at home on 22 Mar 2026.
- Charleroi won 3-1 at Zulte Waregem on 21 Aug 2022.
- The last two home league meetings have been split, with Zulte Waregem winning the most recent.
Charleroi midfielder A. Bernier has started four of the last five available lineups.
Bernier is listed with a foot injury and missed the Union match, with an expected return in October. His absence would keep Charleroi's altered attacking selection in place for this trip.
- Walfoot's 5 September live report stated that Freddy Mbemba replaced injured Antoine Bernier in Charleroi's starting XI against Union Saint-Gilloise.
- Sofascore's 8 September player update lists a foot injury beginning on 29 August and an expected return in October.
- A. Bernier started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 01:40 · Europe/BucharestWalfoot live report: Charleroi v Union Saint-Gilloisewww.walfoot.be · 5 Sep 2026Sofascore Antoine Bernier profilewww.sofascore.com · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zulte Waregem's strong home form and recent H2H edge give them a slight advantage, though Charleroi's overall quality keeps this close.
- Zulte Waregem are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches (W3 D2), scoring 10 and conceding 3.
- At home this season, Zulte Waregem have won both matches, scoring 6 and conceding 1.
- Charleroi have lost their most recent league match 2-3 at home to Union St. Gilloise.
- In the last H2H meeting (March 2026), Zulte Waregem beat Charleroi 1-0 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostZulte WaregemEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zulte Waregem's unbeaten run and home strength make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance on the home side.
- Zulte Waregem are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches (W3 D2).
- Zulte Waregem have won both home league matches this season.
- Charleroi have lost only 1 of their last 5 league matches, but that loss came in their most recent game.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostZulte Waregem or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, and their attacking records suggest a good chance of at least three goals.
- Zulte Waregem's league matches average 3.6 total goals (10 scored, 3 conceded in 5 games).
- Charleroi's league matches average 3.2 total goals (11 scored, 5 conceded in 5 games).
- Both teams have scored in 4 of Zulte Waregem's last 5 league matches.
- Charleroi have scored at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities, making BTTS a strong possibility.
- Both teams have scored in 4 of Zulte Waregem's last 5 league matches.
- Charleroi have scored in all 5 league matches this season.
- Zulte Waregem have conceded in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Charleroi have conceded in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half goal averages suggest a moderate chance of two or more goals before the break, but confidence is low due to inconsistency.
- Zulte Waregem average 1.1 first-half goals per league match.
- Charleroi average 0.6 first-half goals per league match.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.7, but recent matches show variability.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The attacking intent of both teams often leads to second-half goals, making over 1.5 in the second half a reasonable bet.
- Zulte Waregem's second-half goal difference is positive in recent matches.
- Charleroi have scored in the second half in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Both teams tend to push for goals late, with several matches featuring second-half scoring.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and the combined average suggests a close call on over 9.5 corners.
- Zulte Waregem average 5.6 corners per match and concede 5.4 corners per match.
- Charleroi average 6.8 corners per match and concede 4.8 corners per match.
- Combined average corners per match is approximately 11.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is just above the line, but variance makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Zulte Waregem average 5.5 shots on target per match and concede 4.0 shots on target per match.
- Charleroi average 4.9 shots on target per match and concede 3.8 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target is approximately 9.3.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The card averages are right at the line, making this a coin-flip with slight lean to over due to competitive nature.
- Zulte Waregem average 1.1 yellow cards per match and their opponents average 2.2 yellow cards per match.
- Charleroi average 2.0 yellow cards per match and their opponents average 1.6 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average cards per match is approximately 3.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance52%