Jupiler Pro LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Kortrijk1Charleroi3

HT 1–1Sat 29 Aug 2026, 16:15 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 13–18On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 6–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 23:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Charleroi are clear favourites on form and head-to-head, but the best value is in the goals markets: back both teams to score 'No' at 2.05 (65% model probability) and under 2.5 goals at 1.95 (60%).

For a higher-risk play, consider half-time/full-time Draw/Charleroi at 5.00 (30% model probability).

Context

Kortrijk are 17th in the Jupiler Pro League with 0 points from 2 matches.
They lost 3-0 at home to Antwerp on 15 August and 3-0 away to Club Brugge KV on 7 August. In both games they failed to score and conceded three goals. This poor start means they need points quickly, but their attack has not produced a goal yet.
- Kortrijk lost 3-0 at home to Antwerp on 15 August 2026.
- Kortrijk lost 3-0 away to Club Brugge KV on 7 August 2026.
- Kortrijk have 0 points and 0 goals scored in 2 league matches.
Charleroi attacker Parfait Guiagon has completed a permanent transfer to Al-Taawoun, confirmed by the club on 26 August and noted in their 28 August preview.
His departure removes a recently available first-team attacking option from Charleroi's match selection. The club must now allocate that squad place differently for the trip to Kortrijk, leaving the attacking rotation thinner than it was before the transfer.
- Charleroi announced on 26 August that it had agreed Guiagon’s permanent transfer to Al-Taawoun.
- The club’s 28 August Kortrijk preview confirmed that Guiagon had left.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:12 · Europe/BucharestSporting Charleroi transfer announcementwww.sporting-charleroi.be · 26 Aug 2026Sporting Charleroi Kortrijk previewwww.sporting-charleroi.be · 28 Aug 2026
Charleroi are 2nd in the Jupiler Pro League with 9 points from 3 matches.
They beat KV Mechelen 2-0 at home on 22 August, won 1-0 away at Lommel United on 16 August, and beat OH Leuven 3-1 at home on 9 August. Their attack has scored six goals and their defence has conceded only one. This run gives them confidence and a clear advantage over a struggling Kortrijk side.
- Charleroi beat KV Mechelen 2-0 at home on 22 August 2026.
- Charleroi won 1-0 away at Lommel United on 16 August 2026.
- Charleroi beat OH Leuven 3-1 at home on 9 August 2026.
Kortrijk's attacking output has been limited in their two league matches.
They have averaged 2.5 shots on target per game and 12 total shots, but have not scored. Their possession is also low at 37.5%. Against a Charleroi side that has conceded only one goal in three games, Kortrijk may find it difficult to break through.
- Kortrijk average 2.5 shots on target per game.
- Kortrijk average 37.5% possession.
- Kortrijk have scored 0 goals in 2 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charleroi's perfect start and dominant H2H record, combined with Kortrijk's poor form and lack of goals, strongly favor an away win.
- Charleroi have won all 3 league matches this season, scoring 6 and conceding 1.
- Kortrijk have lost both league matches, scoring 0 and conceding 6.
- Charleroi have won the last 4 H2H meetings, including two 1-0 wins in 2024-25.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCharleroiEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Kortrijk's struggles and Charleroi's strong form, the away side is highly unlikely to lose, making Draw or Charleroi a very safe option.
- Charleroi are unbeaten in 3 league games (3W).
- Kortrijk have lost both league games, failing to score.
- Charleroi have not lost to Kortrijk in the last 4 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CharleroiEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a pattern of cautious first halves, making a draw at the break the most likely outcome.
- Kortrijk have been level at half-time in both league matches (0-1 and 0-1).
- Charleroi have been level at half-time in 2 of 3 league matches.
- Last two H2H league meetings were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Charleroi win is a plausible scenario given Charleroi's second-half strength and Kortrijk's tendency to fade.
- Charleroi have won 3 of 3 league matches, often scoring after half-time.
- Kortrijk have been level at half-time in both league matches but lost both.
- In the last H2H meeting, Charleroi won 1-0 with a second-half goal.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/CharleroiEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kortrijk's attacking impotence and Charleroi's solid defense, along with low-scoring H2H history, point to a low-scoring match.
- Kortrijk have scored 0 goals in 2 league matches.
- Charleroi have conceded only 1 goal in 3 league matches.
- Last two H2H league meetings ended 1-0 to Charleroi.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kortrijk's severe scoring drought and Charleroi's defensive solidity make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Kortrijk have failed to score in both league matches this season.
- Charleroi kept a clean sheet in their last away league match (1-0 vs Lommel).
- In the last 4 H2H meetings, Kortrijk scored only 2 goals total.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charleroi's strong defensive record and Kortrijk's inability to score suggest a good chance of an away clean sheet.
- Charleroi have kept 2 clean sheets in 3 league matches.
- Kortrijk have not scored in 2 league matches.
- Charleroi kept a clean sheet in their only away league match this season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostKortrijk not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, and Kortrijk's lack of goals makes a low-scoring first half likely.
- Kortrijk average 0.9 first-half goals but have scored 0 in league play.
- Charleroi average 0.5 first-half goals and concede 0.3 first-half goals.
- In the last two H2H league meetings, both first halves ended 0-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Charleroi's tendency to score after the break and Kortrijk's defensive lapses make a second-half goal highly probable.
- Charleroi have scored in the second half in all 3 league matches.
- Kortrijk have conceded in the second half in both league matches.
- Charleroi's last two H2H wins came via second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance75%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charleroi's high corner count and Kortrijk's defensive pressure could lead to a high total corner count, though Kortrijk's own low corner numbers add uncertainty.
- Charleroi average 6.5 corners per match, with 12 and 14 in two recent league games.
- Kortrijk average 2 corners per match but concede many corners (opponent corners high).
- Charleroi's attacking style generates numerous corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charleroi's high shot volume should push the total shots on target over the line, though Kortrijk's low output adds risk.
- Charleroi average 4.8 shots on target per match, with 10 in one game.
- Kortrijk average 2.5 shots on target but have managed only 5 total in two league games.
- Charleroi's attacking volume suggests they will generate many shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' foul rates and the competitive nature of the match could lead to a moderate number of cards, though data is limited.
- Charleroi average 1.9 yellow cards per match, with 5 in one game.
- Kortrijk average 1 yellow card per match but have committed 7.5 fouls per game.
- The match may be competitive, increasing card likelihood.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 44% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; the price already reflects the cautious first-half pattern.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

L0-1KortrijkvCharleroiDec 26, 2024JUP

L1-0CharleroivKortrijkAug 25, 2024JUP

L3-1CharleroivKortrijkMay 11, 2024JUP

L1-2KortrijkvCharleroiApr 14, 2024JUP

W1-0KortrijkvCharleroiFeb 3, 2024JUP

Charleroi: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Jupiler Pro League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	Kortrijk Relegation - Challenger Pro League	2	0	0	2	0-6	0	LL
2	Charleroi Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)	3	3	0	0	6-1	9	WWW

9pt gap between teamsCharleroi leads the leagueKortrijk in relegation zone

Recent Form

Kortrijk

L0-3AntwerpAug 15JUP

D1-1Club Brugge IIAug 8FRI

L0-3Club Brugge KVAug 7JUP

L1-2ReimsAug 1FRI

W1-0KAA Gent IIJul 31FRI

D1-1AmiensJul 25FRI

W4-1KnokkeJul 25FRI

L0-1HarelbekeJul 18FRI

D1-1ValenciennesJul 18FRI

L2-4Club Brugge KVJul 4FRI

W5-1DiksmuideJun 27FRI

W6-0LauweJun 20FRI

W4-1MarkeJun 17FRI

W3-1RWDMApr 17CHA

L0-1SK BeverenApr 11CHA

Charleroi

W2-0KV MechelenAug 22JUP

W1-0Lommel UnitedAug 16JUP

W3-1OH LeuvenAug 9JUP

L2-3Rayo VallecanoAug 1FRI

W2-1Seraing UnitedJul 25FRI

D2-2LensJul 25FRI

L1-3FeyenoordJul 17FRI

D2-2ReimsJul 11FRI

W2-0Standard LiegeMay 23JUP

D1-1OH LeuvenMay 19JUP

L0-1KVC WesterloMay 16JUP

W1-0AntwerpMay 10JUP

W2-0GenkMay 2JUP

W2-0OH LeuvenApr 25JUP

D1-1GenkApr 21JUP

Squad & Injuries

Kortrijk

25 available

Attackers8

Midfielders7

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Charleroi

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Kortrijk1Charleroi3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Charleroi

Draw or Charleroi

Draw at half-time / Charleroi at full-time

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Over 0.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

@ 1.65

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Kortrijk

Charleroi

Squad & Injuries

Kortrijk

Charleroi