Slavia Sofia0Spartak Varna0

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 12:15 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 6–13On targetOn target 1–6CornersCorners 9–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 17:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a tight, low-scoring match with a draw as the most likely result.

The best value is on first half under 0.5 goals at 2.63 (model edge +22 points), while the double chance Slavia or Draw is overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Slavia Sofia sit 6th with 10 points from 8 matches, but their home record is winless.
At home they have drawn with Septemvri Sofia 1-1 on 2026-08-28, lost to Levski Sofia 1-2 on 2026-09-02, and drawn with Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 on 2026-07-31. This pattern suggests they may struggle to convert home advantage into wins against Spartak Varna.
- Home record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in 4 matches.
- Drew 1-1 with Septemvri Sofia on 2026-08-28.
- Lost 1-2 to Levski Sofia on 2026-09-02.
Vasil Petrov is Spartak Varna's interim head coach while the club seeks a permanent appointment.
Petrov described defensive energy and effort as the team's strength after the 5 September draw with CSKA, and he changed tactics at half-time in that match. His continued interim role suggests Spartak may prioritise defensive organisation in Sofia, though the specific tactical adjustments for this fixture remain unknown.
- On 25 August, Spartak announced that Vasil Petrov would lead the first team temporarily until a permanent head coach is appointed.
- After the 1-1 draw with CSKA on 5 September, Petrov said Spartak changed tactics at half-time and identified defensive energy and effort as the team's strength.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:28 · Europe/BucharestBTA: Spartak Varna appoint Vasil Petrov as interim coachwww.bta.bg · 25 Aug 2026Novsport: Petrov on the draw with CSKAwww.novsport.com · 5 Sep 2026
Spartak Varna are 8th with 9 points, but their away record is weak.
Away from home they lost 0-6 to Levski Sofia on 2026-08-22 and 2-3 to Botev Plovdiv on 2026-08-10. Their only away win was 3-0 against Cherno More Varna on 2026-07-26. This suggests they may struggle defensively on the road.
- Away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses in 3 matches.
- Lost 0-6 to Levski Sofia on 2026-08-22.
- Lost 2-3 to Botev Plovdiv on 2026-08-10.
D. Lozev is Spartak Varna's captain and a defender who has not started any of the last five available lineups.
Lozev returned from an adductor injury as a substitute against CSKA on 5 September, and his availability restores a right-sided defensive option. He may be eased back into the starting eleven, but his presence gives Petrov another choice in defence.
- On 5 August, BTA reported that captain D. Lozev would be out until the start of September because of a serious adductor strain.
- In Spartak's 1-1 draw with CSKA on 5 September, Lozev entered the match and later delivered a cross that created a chance for Angel Gomes.
- D. Lozev started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:28 · Europe/BucharestBTA: Lozev injury updatewww.bta.bg · 5 Aug 2026Bulgarian Professional Football League: Spartak Varna 1-1 CSKAbpfl.bg · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Slavia's home form is poor with no wins, while Spartak's away form is inconsistent, making a draw a likely outcome.
- Slavia Sofia home record: 0W 3D 1L in 4 home league matches
- Spartak Varna away record: 1W 0D 2L in 3 away league matches
- H2H last 5: 2 home wins, 1 draw, 2 away wins
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's home resilience (3 draws) and Spartak's away struggles support a double chance for the home side.
- Slavia Sofia home record: 0W 3D 1L
- Spartak Varna away record: 1W 0D 2L
- Slavia Sofia overall form: WLDDW
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSlavia Sofia or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, with Slavia rarely trailing.
- Slavia Sofia leading at half time: 27%
- Spartak Varna leading at half time: 40%
- Slavia Sofia trailing at half time: 13%
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Slavia tends to improve after the break, while Spartak's second-half defense is weaker.
- Slavia Sofia second half goal difference: +0.8 (1.1 scored - 0.3 conceded)
- Spartak Varna second half goal difference: -0.1 (0.8 scored - 0.9 conceded)
- Slavia Sofia home second half performance: 3 goals scored, 4 conceded in 4 games
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSlavia SofiaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time and full-time is a plausible scenario given both teams' tendencies.
- Slavia Sofia half-time draws: 60% (based on recent matches)
- Spartak Varna half-time draws: 40%
- H2H last 5: 1 draw at full time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's low-scoring home games and moderate away scoring by Spartak suggest a low total.
- Slavia Sofia home goals per match: 0.75 (3 goals in 4 home games)
- Spartak Varna away goals per match: 1.67 (5 goals in 3 away games)
- Slavia Sofia overall goals per match: 1.0 (8 goals in 8 games)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's solid home defense and Spartak's inconsistent away attack make a clean sheet for one side likely.
- Slavia Sofia home clean sheets: 1 in 4 home games
- Spartak Varna away clean sheets: 0 in 3 away games
- Slavia Sofia overall goals conceded per match: 0.75
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages.
- Slavia Sofia first half goals per match: 0.7
- Spartak Varna first half goals per match: 0.7
- Slavia Sofia first half goals conceded per match: 0.3
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to produce more goals as both teams push for results.
- Slavia Sofia second half goals per match: 1.1 (total 1.8 - 0.7 first half)
- Spartak Varna second half goals per match: 0.8 (total 1.5 - 0.7 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.9
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite the combined average slightly above 9.5, recent matches show lower corner counts for Slavia.
- Slavia Sofia average corners per match: 4.7
- Spartak Varna average corners per match: 6.0
- Combined average corners: 10.7
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slavia's low shot output may keep the total under the line.
- Slavia Sofia average shots on target per match: 3.3
- Spartak Varna average shots on target per match: 6.0
- Combined average shots on target: 9.3
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams accumulate cards, with Slavia's high average pushing the total over.
- Slavia Sofia average yellow cards per match: 3.2
- Spartak Varna average yellow cards per match: 2.2
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.4
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 80% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

L2-1Spartak VarnavSlavia SofiaMay 10, 2026FIR

W4-0Slavia SofiavSpartak VarnaMar 6, 2026FIR

D1-1Spartak VarnavSlavia SofiaSep 28, 2025FIR

W1-3Spartak VarnavSlavia SofiaDec 9, 2024FIR

W3-1Slavia SofiavSpartak VarnaAug 9, 2024FIR

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Slavia Sofia Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	8	2	4	2	8-6	10	WLDDW
8	Spartak Varna Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	8	2	3	3	10-14	9	DDLLL