San Martin de Tucuman3Agropecuario Argentino0

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–192%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 01:08 · Europe/Bucharest

San Martín's home form and Agropecuario's away struggles point to a low-scoring game, but the best value is on under 0.5 first-half goals (+10 point edge).

Avoid the double chance and under 2.5 goals markets, as their odds already reflect the likely outcomes.

Context

Agropecuario Argentino sits 13th in Group 2 with 33 points, but their away record is much weaker than their home form.
In 14 away matches, Agropecuario has won just once, drawn five, and lost eight, scoring only nine goals while conceding 22. This away weakness is a clear pattern, though San Martin de Tucuman's home record is also modest with four wins and eight draws in 14 games. The match could be tight, but Agropecuario's struggles on the road are a significant factor.
- Agropecuario's away record: 1 win, 5 draws, 8 losses in 14 matches.
- Agropecuario has scored 9 goals and conceded 22 away from home.
- San Martin de Tucuman's home record: 4 wins, 8 draws, 2 losses in 14 matches.
San Martin de Tucuman is 11th in Group 2 with 36 points, but their recent results have been inconsistent.
In their last five matches, San Martin de Tucuman has recorded one win, three draws, and one loss. They lost 0-2 to Tristan Suarez on September 5, drew 1-1 with Club Atlético Güemes on August 30, and beat Chacarita Juniors 2-1 on August 23. This mixed form suggests they are not in a strong run, though they have been difficult to beat at home.
- Last five matches: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss.
- Lost 0-2 to Tristan Suarez on 2026-09-05.
- Drew 1-1 with Club Atlético Güemes on 2026-08-30.
- Beat Chacarita Juniors 2-1 on 2026-08-23.
San Martín de Tucumán head coach Alejandro Orfila has been adjusting his starting side.
Injuries and absences have forced changes to names and positions, so San Martín's defensive organisation and attacking connections may be less settled than usual. The search for balance suggests the lineup could still shift, leaving some uncertainty about how the team will function.
- After the 2-0 defeat at Tristán Suárez, Orfila said San Martín had not produced the first-half performance he wanted.
- He said recent changes to the starting side had been conditioned by injuries and absences, alongside a search for greater balance.
ReportedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 01:06 · Europe/BucharestLa Gacetawww.lagaceta.com.ar · 5 Sep 2026
The teams have met five times in recent seasons, with Agropecuario winning the latest encounter.
On April 26, 2026, Agropecuario defeated San Martin de Tucuman 2-0 at home. However, the previous meeting in September 2024 saw San Martin de Tucuman win 1-0 at home. The head-to-head record is mixed, but Agropecuario's recent victory could be a factor.
- Agropecuario won 2-0 at home on 2026-04-26.
- San Martin de Tucuman won 1-0 at home on 2024-09-17.
- Agropecuario won 1-0 away on 2024-04-27.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

San Martin de Tucuman or Draw

1.17fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

The market price implies an 85% chance of San Martin avoiding defeat, but our estimate is 78%, so the odds offer no value despite the high confidence in the outcome.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have moderate scoring rates and recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring, making under 2.5 goals likely.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Agropecuario's weak away attack and San Martin's decent home defense suggest at least one team may fail to score.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.09fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 91.7%

0.0ppshort

Low first-half scoring rates for both teams make it unlikely that both will score before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Martin's strong home form and Agropecuario's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, reinforced by home advantage in recent H2H meetings.
- San Martin home record: 4W 8D 2L, 17 goals for, 11 against in 14 home matches.
- Agropecuario away record: 1W 5D 8L, 9 goals for, 22 against in 14 away matches.
- H2H last 5: San Martin 2W, Agropecuario 2W, 1D; home side won 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSan Martin de TucumanEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Martin's home solidity and Agropecuario's away struggles make a home defeat unlikely, supporting the double chance.
- San Martin home record: 4W 8D 2L, 17 goals for, 11 against in 14 home matches.
- Agropecuario away record: 1W 5D 8L, 9 goals for, 22 against in 14 away matches.
- San Martin have lost only 2 of 14 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSan Martin de Tucuman or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of drawing at halftime, and recent H2H matches support a level first half.
- San Martin first half record: 20% leading, 40% trailing, 40% level.
- Agropecuario first half record: 13% leading, 27% trailing, 60% level.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches were level at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Martin's home advantage and Agropecuario's away weakness may lead to a stronger second half for the hosts.
- San Martin home record: 4W 8D 2L, 17 goals for, 11 against in 14 home matches.
- Agropecuario away record: 1W 5D 8L, 9 goals for, 22 against in 14 away matches.
- San Martin have scored 17 home goals, with many coming in the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSan Martin de TucumanEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a San Martin win is plausible given their home strength and Agropecuario's away struggles.
- San Martin first half record: 40% level at halftime.
- San Martin home record: 4W 8D 2L, 17 goals for, 11 against in 14 home matches.
- Agropecuario away record: 1W 5D 8L, 9 goals for, 22 against in 14 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / San Martin de TucumanEstimated chance22%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown a tendency to dominate both halves, and recent H2H matches have been balanced.
- San Martin first half record: 20% leading, 40% trailing, 40% level.
- Agropecuario first half record: 13% leading, 27% trailing, 60% level.
- H2H last 5: no team won both halves in any match.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Agropecuario's tendency to draw or lead at halftime, combined with San Martin's mixed first-half form, supports this double chance.
- San Martin first half record: 20% leading, 40% trailing, 40% level.
- Agropecuario first half record: 13% leading, 27% trailing, 60% level.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches were level at halftime.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Agropecuario ArgentinoEstimated chance55%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and recent H2H meetings have been low-scoring, making under 2.5 goals likely.
- San Martin home matches average 2.0 total goals (17 for, 11 against in 14).
- Agropecuario away matches average 2.2 total goals (9 for, 22 against in 14).
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Agropecuario's weak away attack and San Martin's decent home defense suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- San Martin home: 11 goals conceded in 14 matches (0.79 per game).
- Agropecuario away: 9 goals scored in 14 matches (0.64 per game).
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had at least one team fail to score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and recent H2H matches have often been goalless at the break.
- San Martin first half goals: 0.4 per match; first half goals conceded: 0.5 per match.
- Agropecuario first half goals: 0.1 per match; first half goals conceded: 0.3 per match.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches were 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more after halftime, and recent H2H matches have seen second-half goals.
- San Martin average 0.9 goals per match overall, with 0.4 in first half, implying 0.5 in second half.
- Agropecuario average 0.9 goals per match overall, with 0.1 in first half, implying 0.8 in second half.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had at least one second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams make it unlikely that both will score before the break.
- San Martin first half goals: 0.4 per match; first half goals conceded: 0.5 per match.
- Agropecuario first half goals: 0.1 per match; first half goals conceded: 0.3 per match.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches were 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 56% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and offers negative value.

Prediction history

San Martin de Tucuman has been moderately reliable on Under 2.5 goals

San Martin de Tucuman has fulfilled 5 of 8 Under 2.5 predictions, a 63% success rate. The average estimated probability was 72.8%, but the current prediction of 62% sits below the historical range of 70-78%. Their away matches have been more reliable, with 4 of 5 fulfilled, compared to just 1 of 3 at home.

Recent evidence for San Martin de Tucuman8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional