NS Mura1Aluminij Kidricevo6

HT 0–3Sun 13 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 00:41 · Europe/Bucharest

The only market with a positive edge is Over 2.5 goals at 1.78, with a slim +1.8 point edge.

Both teams have defensive issues and a history of high-scoring meetings, but key midfield absences add risk. Avoid other markets as they are priced below our model's estimates.

Context

Mura are 9th in the 1. SNL with 8 points from 8 matches.
At home this season, Mura have won once and lost twice in three games, scoring two and conceding four. Their recent home defeats came against Koper (0-1 on 22 August) and Radomlje (1-3 on 10 August). This suggests they struggle to control matches at their own ground, and Aluminij may find space to attack.
- Mura's home record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses in 3 matches.
- Lost 0-1 to Koper at home on 2026-08-22.
- Lost 1-3 to Radomlje at home on 2026-08-10.
NS Mura midfielder A. Zalaznik started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His two-match ban removes a regular midfield selection option for this match. Mura will need to adjust their midfield setup without him.
- NZS recorded Zalaznik's red card in the 55th minute of Mura's 6 September draw at Maribor after describing him as striking Žan Jevšenak.
- Delo reported on 8 September that the NZS disciplinary body imposed a two-match ban on Aljaž Zalaznik.
- A. Zalaznik started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 00:40 · Europe/BucharestNogometna zveza Slovenije match reportwww.nzs.si · 6 Sep 2026Delo disciplinary reportwww.delo.si · 8 Sep 2026
Aluminij are 7th with 9 points from 8 matches.
Away from home, Aluminij have played twice: a 0-1 loss at Olimpija Ljubljana on 2 August and a 3-1 win at Radomlje on 16 August. Their away scoring is inconsistent, but the recent win shows they can be dangerous on the road. Mura's leaky home defence may allow Aluminij to add to their away goal tally.
- Aluminij away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss in 2 matches.
- Won 3-1 at Radomlje on 2026-08-16.
- Lost 0-1 at Olimpija Ljubljana on 2026-08-02.
NS Mura goalkeeper A. Golubović started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
He missed the Maribor draw through injury and his availability remains unresolved. If he is not fit, Matevž Dajčar is likely to continue in goal.
- NZS reported that Mura selected loan goalkeeper Matevž Dajčar against Maribor instead of the injured Adnan Golubović.
- A. Golubović started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 00:40 · Europe/BucharestNogometna zveza Slovenije match reportwww.nzs.si · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Mura's defensive vulnerability and Aluminij's occasional attacking output make BTTS plausible, but odds are slightly against us.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to concede early, but the odds are heavily juiced, offering no value.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aluminij Kidricevo to score

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Mura's defensive record makes a clean sheet unlikely, but the odds are far too short to back.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

NS Mura to score

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Aluminij's defense is not solid enough to keep Mura out, but the odds are too low for value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are inconsistent and H2H shows frequent draws, making a stalemate plausible.
- NS Mura home record: 1W 0D 2L in 3 home matches this season.
- Aluminij away record: 1W 0D 1L in 2 away matches.
- H2H: 2 draws in last 5 meetings, including 1-1 and 2-2.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mura's home edge and Aluminij's travel inconsistency support Mura avoiding defeat.
- NS Mura home advantage: 1W 0D 2L, but H2H at home vs Aluminij: 1W 1D 1L in last 3.
- Aluminij away form is modest (1W 0D 1L).
- Mura's recent home win over Olimpija shows capability.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNS Mura or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to take early leads, making a first-half draw likely.
- NS Mura leading at half time in 33% of matches, trailing in 53%.
- Aluminij leading at half time in 13%, trailing in 40%.
- Both teams often level at the break.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A low-scoring, evenly matched game could end level at both intervals.
- NS Mura half-time draw rate: 33% (5 of 15).
- Aluminij half-time draw rate: 47% (7 of 15).
- Full-time draw rate for Mura: 20%, Aluminij: 33%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show defensive vulnerability, with Mura conceding heavily and H2H often producing goals, supporting over 2.5.
- NS Mura's last 15 matches averaged 3.2 total goals (1.2 for, 2.0 against).
- Aluminij's last 15 matches averaged 2.1 total goals (0.8 for, 1.3 against).
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals, including 3-0 and 2-2 results.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mura's leaky defense and Aluminij's occasional attacking output make both teams scoring likely.
- NS Mura scored in 10 of last 15 matches, but conceded in 13.
- Aluminij scored in 7 of last 15, including 4-2 and 3-1 wins recently.
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, making a first-half goal likely.
- NS Mura first half goals: 0.5 per match, conceded 0.9 per match.
- Aluminij first half goals: 0.4 per match, conceded 0.7 per match.
- Combined first half average: 1.25 goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to open up as fatigue sets in, but evidence is moderate.
- NS Mura second half goals: 0.7 per match (1.2 total - 0.5 first half).
- Aluminij second half goals: 0.4 per match (0.8 total - 0.4 first half).
- Combined second half average: 1.1 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mura's defensive record makes a clean sheet unlikely.
- NS Mura conceded in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Aluminij scored in 7 of last 15, including 4 goals vs Brinje-Grosuplje.
- Mura's home goals against average: 1.33 per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAluminij Kidricevo to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aluminij's defense is not solid enough to keep Mura out.
- Aluminij conceded in 10 of last 15 matches.
- NS Mura scored in 10 of last 15 matches.
- Aluminij away goals against average: 1.0 per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNS Mura to scoreEstimated chance65%